With the UAE deal, Israel tentatively opens new chapter with Gulf Arabs

“Historical”; “A breakthrough”; “A game changer”; “A betrayal”: there is no shortage of nicknames for this month’s sudden announcement – by President Trump – that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is completely normalizing its relations with Israel.

Following Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel in 1979, followed by Jordan in 1994, this makes the UAE only the third Arab country to normalize relations. It is the first of six Gulf Arab states to do so. Oman. Bahrain and possibly Morocco are widely expected to follow.

Discreet contacts between the UAE and Israel had been going on for years, yet the details and timing of this normalization account were kept secret until the very last moment.

There were no consultations between the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Abu Dhabi and its Arab neighbors. Almost everyone was taken by surprise, most of all Palestinians, who called it “a stick in the back” because they still had to come close to gaining a state of their own or ending Israeli occupation.

“For the Palestinians, there is zero upside here,” commented Emile Hokayem of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

For the de facto ruler of the UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed (known as MBZ), this deal is a bit of a gamble, but one with the odds heavily in his favor.

The risk is that it could make the UAE leadership highly popular in the wider Arab world where some posts on social media called it “a sell-out”. If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were to reiterate his commitment to temporarily suspend annexation of parts of the West Bank, that would be extremely embarrassing for the Emiratis and possibly unrevel the whole deal.

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But such a move would also draw rejection from the White House and, moreover, popular street protests would not normally be tolerated in the Gulf.

“In the short term, the falls for the UAE are very limited,” Mr Hokayem said. “This deal will not affect the stability of the UAE regime. It reflects the changing geopolitics of the region and it buys the UAE a lot of goodwill in the US, where its image is blamed for its involvement with Yemen. -war. “

So what is behind this deal and what is there for this relatively young Gulf nation and former British protectorate that only became a sovereign nation in 1971?

In short, there are two things – strategic advantage and technology.

The UAE, along with Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, has a deep mistrust, even a fear, of its gigantic, heavily armed neighbor across the water: Iran.

Gulf leaders look at the map of the region and note how Iran’s strategic presence, despite crippling sanctions, has progressed rapidly across the Middle East since the stronghold of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq. was removed.

Where once Iran was largely confined to its national borders, it now has proxy militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Israel shares these concerns, especially when it comes to Iran’s secret nuclear program.

Then there is something known as “Islamism” or “political Islam”, a transnational concept often embedded by the Muslim Brotherhood and one that certain Gulf Arab rulers see as an existential threat to their dynastic monarchies. No one loves Muslim Brotherhood more fiercely than the UAE Crown Prince and this has led the UAE to support anti-Muslim Brotherhood factions as far away as Libya, while increasingly clashing its interests with those of Turkey’s Islamic Government. .

In practice, this has led to the formation of an unofficial partnership of conservative governments in the Middle East, a de facto club in which Israel, with its formidable intelligence capabilities, is now allowed as an associate member.

And there is technology, including biotech, healthcare, defense and cyber surveillance. Here, the UAE already has a form, after buying Israeli-produced spyware a few years ago to keep an eye on its own citizens. The UAE has deep pockets – it has huge oil reserves and a GDP per capita of almost $ 40,000 (£ 30,000). It also has ambitions worldwide, and beyond that, has just become the first Arab country to send a mission to Mars.

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Israel is by far the most technologically advanced country in the Middle East, with leading inventions. If this alliance works, the UAE could move to a new level of prosperity and international prestige while protecting future jobs for its citizens.

The overtures from Israel to the Gulf go back a bit. In 1995, shortly before Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated by a Jewish extremist, he sent his foreign minister, Shimon Peres, on an official visit to Oman and Qatar. Low-key Israeli trade offices then opened in the capitals of both countries. I remember calling her Muscat office for a response – the Israeli representative answered the phone unintentionally with the Hebrew greeting “Shalom” before quickly changing it to the Arabic “Salaamu aleikum”.

The trade initiative went awry after Mr Netanyahu became prime minister, Israel intervened in Lebanon and the second Palestinian intifada arose. But more recently, silent diplomacy between Israel and the Gulf states has accelerated as a fear of Iranian expansionism has become the main issue.

Bahrain, Oman and Qatar can follow the UAE closely if this month’s announcement continues without major incident.

Saudi Arabia may take longer. But back in 2002, it was the Saudis who launched Crown Prince Abdullah’s peace plan at the Arab summit in Beirut, offering Israel full recognition in exchange for a return to its 1967 borders.

The deal put Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on the spot briefly, but days later Hamas carried out bombings and all talks were suspended. Today, the Middle East is a very different place and what was unthinkable then is now a reality.

“Guess what were the most sought after words online in the UAE right after the deal was announced?” said an Emirati official. “It was ‘hotels in Israel’. A lot of people can’t wait to try!”