In case you’ve missed the massive breaking news that changes the game, the MLB 2020 season will complete with an extended postseason, totaling 16 teams. You can check the full details here, but in summary, the first and second teams from each division will make the playoffs, plus two additional wild card teams with the next best record in each league. That’s eight total in each league, out of 15 teams.
That will leave each league with four three-game series in the first round of the postseason, followed by the traditional format (two five-game Division Series, one seven-game League Championship Series and then the seven-game World Series) . And with a new playoff format, new playoff odds are coming, courtesy of FanGraphs, so let’s take a look at NL Central and the rest of the league.
2020 expanded playoff odds
As you can see, the National League Central is projected to be an extraordinarily tight race this season, however, the Cubs are also expected to come out on top. And with several new ways to sneak into the postseason, your chances of playing playoff baseball this year have increased dramatically (to 72.7%!). The question, of course, is how much does winning the division really matter.
If you are one of the first teams, or he Second team with the best record, will get the home advantage for the first round of the playoffs this year (that means all three games). But even with that carrot, you’ll still be in for a THREE-GAME baseball series at the end of the most unusual season of all time. Seeing how any team in baseball can beat any other team in baseball two out of three times, regardless of location, this reduces the value of first place in my eyes. In other words, a second place is almost as valuable as a first place this year. And in reality, the Cubs just need to avoid entering the postseason as one of the Wild Card teams, presumably to avoid the Dodgers at home, which may be the toughest matchup in the National League.
All that said, I think you’ll find the Cubs’ relative odds of making the postseason pretty strong:
National League tiebreaker odds:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: 95.9%
2. Washington Nationals: 72.8%
3. Chicago Cubs: 72.7%
4. Atlanta Braves: 72.5%
5. New York Mets: 69.2%
6. San Diego parents: 68.5%
7. Milwaukee Brewers: 66.2%
8. Cincinnati Reds: 64.7%
Thanks to uneven schedules, the Chicago Cubs are the third best bet to reach the postseason in the National League in 2020. They are basically tied for second with the Nationals. And no one in his division is even in the top 5. You can’t hate that.
In terms of World Series odds, by contrast, they lag far behind:
MLB World Series Odds:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: 15.0%
2. Houston Astros: 13.3%
3. New York Yankees: 10.5%
4. Tampa Bay Rays: 6.8%
5. Minnesota Twins: 6.6%
6. Washington Nationals: 4.5%
t-7. Oakland Athletics, Atlanta Braves: 4.3%
t-9. Cleveland Indians, Chicago Cubs: 3.8%
This year promises to have all kinds of surprises, but according to the numbers, the best paper teams are projected to be there by the end. We’ll see.
