Will Microsoft really remove the Xbox Live Gold multiplayer paywall?

Xbox Live Gold is a recurring subscription service required to access multiplayer services on Xbox consoles. It costs around $ 60 a year if you buy annual time cards, although Microsoft no longer offers the option to buy 12 months of Xbox Live Gold digitally, although it is still available through other retailers.

Microsoft’s official line on why they decided to remove the 12-month digital subscription is rather vague and uncompromising, but it has not stopped speculation that Microsoft has removed it because it is preparing to remove Xbox Live Gold entirely.

Is this something realistic to expect in the future? Yes it is. But I would be surprised if it happens soon.

Well, obviously, the answer is money. But it is a little more complicated than that.

The Xbox Live Gold cash flow has enabled Microsoft to realize some of its long-term ambitions regarding server and cloud infrastructure. For a long time, Xbox Live Gold was seen, and arguably still is seen, as the world’s most stable de facto gaming network, with features we now take for granted, such as party voice communications, dedicated servers, and more. Many of today’s younger gamers may not be able to imagine a time when voice communications wasn’t ubiquitous, but the social aspects of Xbox Live Gold, as well as its cloud infrastructure, simply would not have been done without the Xbox Live Gold cash flow. However, it goes beyond that.

I still see Xbox Live Gold go away, eventually.

When Microsoft launched the Xbox 360 against the PlayStation 3, the price delta was quite huge. You just need to look at the price of a decent gaming PC versus the price of a comparably powerful console as well, for an example of how cheap subsidized hardware can be in comparison.

The much cheaper Xbox 360 allowed Microsoft to propel Xbox into the limelight as a global brand, usurping several years of dominance of Sony’s PlayStation. Xbox Live Gold, and now PSN +, also help lower hardware costs. If you can attach a subscription to every console, or at least a part of them, you can guarantee that you will end up with better margins than you would have if you had sold hardware at a cost.

That’s why Microsoft Executive Vice President of Gaming and Xbox Chief Phil Spencer have previously discussed (via The Verge) the fact that the console business is less about selling consoles and more about monetizing the users you have. A sold console that doesn’t include a subscription (or games) is worth much, much less to a company.

I do not need to sell any specific version of the console in order for us to achieve our business goals. The business is not how many consoles you sell. The business is how many players are playing the games they buy, how they play.

With this in mind, as of this writing, I very much doubt that we will see Xbox Live Gold removed in the short term. Especially not as soon as the Xbox showcase on July 23 as some people expect.

Yes, it would be a massive announcement that would give Microsoft a very, very strong differentiation from Sony’s PlayStation 5, but from a pure business perspective, right now, it would be an incredibly risky move. In the past, I’ve spoken to Xbox Live staff who have discussed the paywall extensively, noting that those “Xbox Live Free to Play” weekends didn’t do much to boost engagement: anyone who wants to play online You already pay Xbox Live Gold, and you are very happy to do so. Failing to ensure that Xbox Live Gold subscriptions carry over to Xbox Series X could also increase the cost of the console, to meet target margins.

That being said, I still see Xbox Live Gold go away, eventually.

Why might Xbox Live Gold be removed?

The industry is rapidly changing its focus, with the PC by far the dominant force in “core” games. Mobile games did not affect the industry and moved us all Candy Crush lovers, as some analysts predicted in previous years, but more and more of us around the world are playing on Windows PC, whether it be instead of, or next to the Xbox consoles. The gradual decline of gated “walled garden” networks is also opening up all sorts of cross-play scenarios, with Xbox at the forefront. Minecraft is still one of the only games, if not the only game that allows you to play with friends in virtual reality, mobile phones, all consoles and PC simultaneously. This is a vision of the games that Microsoft finally wants to spread throughout its portfolio, within reason.

Increasingly, the paywall for multiplayer seems increasingly out of date.

Increasingly, the paywall for multiplayer seems outdated, and perhaps even antithetical to Microsoft’s vision of a large connected network spanning storefronts and form factors. The Xbox Live “Games with Gold” program, which offers free titles as part of the multiplayer access package, has also decreased in quality over time as Microsoft shifts its focus to its other major subscription service: Xbox Game Pass, featuring some of the best games in the Xbox portfolio for a relatively low monthly fee.

Additionally, Microsoft announced that Project xCloud will be joining Xbox Game Pass Ultimate in September at no additional cost, including more than 100 games, increasing pressure on competitor Google Stadia with a single announcement.

Since Game Pass Ultimate already includes Xbox Live Gold, considering its full cost, it’s safe to assume that Microsoft’s long-term goal is to transfer users to Xbox Game Pass Ultimate and Xbox Game Pass in general. Removing the multiplayer barrier seems like a logical conclusion in this new world of user acquisition on hardware sales.

It would be a great salvo against Sony, with a narrative that is easy for consumers in general to understand. It would be a great feather in Microsoft’s cap, and a strong differentiation piece. Sony has been relatively slow to really shed its IP weight behind PlayStation Now, offering some older titles here and there. The fact that Halo Infinite is available day and date as part of Xbox Game Pass makes it the number one gaming subscription service, and it will certainly be where Microsoft prioritizes its subscription approach in the future, whether it just includes Xbox Live. Gold at the base level, or simply remove it entirely.

At the time of writing, I feel that Microsoft would see it as a risk and a bet to get rid of it in the short term, the same year that a new console is released. But at the same time, Microsoft has a history of being quite unpredictable at times, and they certainly can afford to do so. However, as more and more of us collect Xbox Game Pass, I feel it is inevitable.

Changing landscape of console games

I hope Microsoft continues to push and accumulate more value on Xbox Game Pass. Perhaps they could even switch free monthly games with Gold directly to Xbox Game Pass to further encourage users to migrate to Xbox Game Pass Ultimate.

Xbox Live Gold is certainly cheaper than Xbox Game Pass Ultimate, but it’s hard to deny its value. All Microsoft exclusive games, Project xCloud streaming to mobile phones and later, PCs and exclusive game discounts you can buy to buy before they leave the show. It is a great service and, without a doubt, the future of Xbox.

I really think the days of Xbox Live Gold are numbered, but I also think that ultimately it depends on how quickly gamers adopt Xbox Game Pass Ultimate when it comes to timelines. We just have to wait and see.

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