Will Cinda Arden win the second term? New Zealand election, explained

SYDNEY, Australia Australia – New Zealand’s popular prime minister, Jacinda Arden, is expected to return to power in this week’s general election, giving her Labor party a double-digit lead over a more conservative national party.

After the empowerment of minority parties and the support of the coalition in the mid-1990s, even the country’s first majority government could give Labor a particularly strong performance after the election.

But New Zealand’s proportional voting system may also come as some surprise, and Ms. Arden has remained vague about her plans for a possible second term.

Here’s how the campaign is run and what to look for as the results come out on Saturday.

The support for Ms. Arden has been growing for months, mainly due to the successful management of the coronavirus epidemic.

She led a comprehensive campaign to eradicate the virus, focusing on the “go hard, go fast” approach, with borders locked in early March, extensive testing and contact tracing, and a four-level warning system that was expected Was. Each

His daily briefings with Ashley Bloomfield, Director General of Health, became part of the appointment, as Mrs. Arder deployed comfort and unity while pursuing a science-shaped policy.

She connected directly to her constituents, often turning to Facebook Live at night, where she clarified complex decisions, answered questions and expressed sympathy for what she called New Zealand’s “team of five million.”

The New Zealanders who warmed Mr Ordner after his response last year to the Christchurch terrorist attacks and the eruption of the White Island volcano were even more loyal and proud as their prime minister was seen as a paradox of President Trump and his reaction was epidemic.

New Zealand announced in May that it would end community transmission of the virus for the first time. After a new cluster emerged in August Gust, the country returned to a targeted lockdown in its largest city, Land Cland, until the virus weakened again.

In all, less than 2,000 cases have been reported in the country and only 25 deaths.

“In this election campaign, what happened before the virus is no longer important – the first two years no longer matter, and the only thing people are voting on is the last eight months, and which party will be the strongest and safest “Over the next three years,” said Morgan Godfrey, a political critic who specializes in issues affecting indigenous M માori. “And for the same reason that Inda Arden and the Labor Party are so widely popular – that’s the only answer to that.”

It was a mixed picture. Mrs. Ardern’s global popularity as a liberal standard-bearer has grown her love for him in general at home.

As recently as January, the election was expected to be fairly close, partly because Ms Arden failed to deliver on many of her 2017 campaign promises – particularly related to building an economy focused on well-being that bridges the gap between rich and poor. Poor.

Income inequality has barely developed with children’s poverty, as housing costs have risen steadily, increasingly giving prices outside the New Zealand market. And the government’s efforts to increase supply have done little to address the problem.

Labor promised to raise 100,000 in housing stock in a decade, but lowered its target after building only 258 affordable homes last year.

Ms. Arden has hinted at raising the minimum wage as proof of her government’s commitment, but in general, the legislation passed by her government has worked around the edge of the economy. The epidemic has also been fueled by what economists describe as a concerted response focused on stimuli for infrastructure, small businesses and exports.

It’s hard to say. During the campaign against Judith Collins, the leader of the National Party, Ms. Arden, was disciplined – and very vaguely.

“This is a very stable campaign. None of these are big promises, ”said Ben Thomas, a former National Party press secretary. “’We have kept you safe; We drove to New Zealand through Kovid. ‘It’s a sales pitch. “

Mr. Godfrey agreed. “At no point did it become clear – in the debate where Jinda Arden seemed to be doing her best not to talk about policy – exactly what she has been saying for the next three years, except what has already been done.”

Election results can determine the extent of his courage. If Labor wins a majority, Ms. Arden could actually be more cautious, as she holds on to traditional National Party voters who have voted for Labor.

“Theoretically, she is now unshakeled. She can do whatever she wants, “said Mr. Hartwich.” But I don’t think she will, because she’s probably thinking about the next election. The more successful she is, the more centrist she becomes. “

If Mrs. Arden and Labor had to form a government of alliance with the Greens, however, she would be pushed to the left, and forced to move more quickly.

With efforts to disrupt the cycle of international poverty and international wealth – climate change is likely to be a major priority, issues that can be found elsewhere, but it is putting pressure, especially in New Zealand, where there is no capital gains tax and poverty Becomes spread out in parts. Giving more local autonomy for Mઓori communities may also be in the cards.

Jennifer Curtin, director of the Public Policy Institute at The University of Caledonia, said working with the Greens would provide an opportunity to expand its reach on how to implement a people-monitoring policy. “She really has more space to create the things she wants than the kind of language she uses.”

New Zealand’s two ballet initiatives will also decide. The first involves voluntary euthanasia. The Life of Life Choice Act will give New Zealanders the option to legally request to end their lives if they meet certain criteria, including suffering from a terminal illness that causes their death within six months.

If it passes, as expected, New Zealand, along with the United States and some Australian states, will become the sixth country to allow auxiliary deaths.

A second referendum, if approved, would legalize recreational use of marijuana.

During the campaign, Ms. Arden admitted to using her own marijuana (“a long time ago,” she said), putting her square in the nation’s mainstream.

About 100 per cent of New Zealanders have tried marijuana, according to an independent study – twice as much as Austral Australians, and even Americans. But the poll suggests that the initiative, which requires voters to approve specific rules for the creation of a legal market rather than the general principle of legalization, is likely to fail. Only Greens voters support the marijuana proposal by a large margin in the polls.

Natasha Frost, from Rotorua, New Zealand contributed to the report. Yan Zhuang contributed research from Melbourne, Australia.