Are we supposed to be suspicious of the reasons if the United States produces a working and effective vaccine? Politico seems a little suspicious of the Trump administration’s motives for speeding up a vaccine to end a pandemic that has killed hundreds of thousands and brought economic activity to a standstill. They are concerned that Trump is trying to rush a vaccine before it can be shown to be safe, or perhaps just claim that one has been found, even if there is nothing ready to use in early November:
While the race to find an effective vaccine for Covid-19 has crucial implications for nations around the world, it also has political ramifications in the United States, with Trump hoping to find a vaccine to calm the pandemic and increase unhappiness over his management of the coronavirus response.
Powered by a series of encouraging results from early trials, the administration is laying the groundwork for a high-profile deployment of the initial coronavirus vaccines in just three months. It is the best calendar that also follows the last few weeks before the November 3 elections. Operation White House Warp Speed has invested billions of dollars into developing a vaccine in record time, funding several parallel efforts and buying doses of the experimental injections in a bid that will ultimately pay off. …
There’s practically no chance that the US will have a proven vaccine by Election Day, several vaccine experts told POLITICO. It could also take until 2021 to produce and distribute the hundreds of millions of shots needed to inoculate the entire country.
At the same time, however, the race for drug makers through the first clinical trials means that top vaccine candidates may begin to show signs of their effectiveness in late October, offering Trump the opportunity to take advantage of them as a potential change in the game.
To be fair, it’s not just Trump skeptics who have been taking advantage of this possibility. A couple of weeks ago, Fox Business also highlighted an argument that Trump could win in November with a game changer in the fall. And that game changer is …
“There is still a way for Trump to win,” said Valliere. “But it is a very narrow path.” …
Additionally, BioNTech CEO Ugur Sahin told The Wall Street Journal that his company’s experimental COVID-19 vaccine is on track for regulatory approval by the end of the year.
Such developments would go a long way in reducing the death rate and restoring economic confidence, which has been shaken by the sharpest slowdown in the post-World War II era.
According to Kolanovic, investors who entered the market amid the calm would need to buy $ 400 billion in shares to achieve their average historical exposure to equities. He believes that that could cause high-momentum and value stock turnover, helping push the market to new highs.
The result would be an environment in which investors who missed the rebound from March lows could have a second chance at bat, Kolanovic said.
“If there is any credible sign of a vaccine this fall, that could help Trump,” said Valliere of AGF Investments.
So yes, it is permissible to calculate the political value of the progress of the vaccine. In fact, it has become quite clear that the sustainability of the economic reopening is linked to finding a vaccine that at least allows a significant period of immunity, and no one disputes that the economic recovery will affect the elections. Trump certainly has made no secret of his desire for a V-shaped recovery long before the election, or that reelection is at least part of his interest in that.
However, calling it an “October surprise” is pretty silly. We have been tracking the progress of the vaccine since the search started in March, and the testing schedules have been fairly well known ever since. So far we have been fortunate that the leading candidates have been successful in early trials both to increase immunity and to keep side effects to a minimum in limited experimental uses thus far. We’ve also known for weeks, if not months, that the Trump administration had committed to buying hundreds of millions of doses in Stage 3 tests. That was an explicit step in Operation Warp Speed, just in case one or more vaccines work, to speed up their use. None of this is a “surprise” at all; it will only be very good news if indeed one or more vaccines prove to be effective and safe in early fall.
If we get a vaccine by October, people know it may not reach their arms on the first Tuesday in November, but it will come soon after, thanks to Operation Warp Speed. Why I would not do it make it a legitimate victory for Trump? And shouldn’t we all hope that we succeed in the mission of finding a vaccine, no matter who the president is when it happens?
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