Will a COVID-19 vaccine be the “October surprise” that saves Trump’s re-election campaign?


President Donald Trump’s painfully inadequate response to the coronavirus pandemic has been crushing him in recent election polls: Poll after poll has shown him to follow former Vice President Joe Biden, the alleged Democratic candidate, some of them double digits. But Politico reporter Adam Cancryn, in an article published on July 22, wonders if perhaps there will be enough progress on a COVID-19 vaccine for Trump to enjoy an “October surprise” that saves his reelection campaign and helps win a second term.

Although the World Health Organization’s Mike Ryan said that while “good progress” is being made, it will probably be in early 2021 before COVID-19 vaccines become available. And Cancryn points out that “Trump’s bet that a proven coronavirus vaccine will be the surprise of October to catapult him to a second term faces increasing odds.” However, the Political journalist points out, “that does not mean that you will not find sufficient reason to declare victory anyway.”

Cancryn explains: “While the race to find an effective vaccine for COVID-19 has crucial implications for nations around the world, it also has political ramifications in the United States, with Trump highly confident of finding a vaccine to calm the pandemic and the increase in unhappiness over his handling of the coronavirus response. Driven by a series of encouraging results from early trials, the Administration (Trump) is laying the groundwork for a high-profile deployment of initial coronavirus vaccines in just three months. It is the best case scenario, which also follows the last few weeks before the elections on November 3. “

According to Cancryn, Trump’s White House Operation Warped Speed ​​”has invested billions of dollars in developing a vaccine in record time, funding several parallel efforts and buying doses of the experimental injections in a bid that it will finally be worth it. “

Cancryn reports that “several of the best vaccine experts” told Politico that “it could take until 2021 to produce and distribute the hundreds of millions of vaccines necessary to inoculate the entire country.” However, the journalist wonders if the first clinical trials could give Trump “the opportunity to take advantage of them as a potential game changer.”

“While the Trump Administration has insisted it is not going to cut through security, a vote also taken by vaccine developers has left the door open to a short circuit in the process before those trials are complete,” Cancryn reports. “The guidelines (from the Food and Drug Administration) indicate that the Administration could issue emergency authorizations as soon as it is convinced that a vaccine is safe and effective, authorizing it to distribute it to the public.”

John Moore, professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medical College, is one of the medical experts who is concerned that a COVID-19 vaccine is rushed rather than properly tested.

Moore told Politician: “That is the concern, not because Trump may raise his poll ratings by a couple percent, but that we could make a catastrophic mistake. Anything in October will be politicized, and the last thing this pandemic needs. it’s more politicization. ” “

Barry Bloom, an infectious disease expert at Harvard University, told Politician: “Clearly, the President has a political goal by saying,” I’ve delivered a vaccine. “But we won’t know in three months, or six months, in January, how long do the antibodies last? “