The iconic moment was, in large part, the result of a shared vision of peace by two men who were said to have a personal chemistry between them. It was a day “like no other,” announced an emotional King Hussein. It was “the dawn of the new era of peace … As we unite to assure, if God wants, there will be no more death, no more misery, no more suspicion, no more fear, no more uncertainty.”
But 26 years later, that vision seems like an illusion. The survival of the peace treaty, one of two that Israel has with the Arab world, is now in doubt.
“We are at … the lowest level in the relationship … since the signing of the peace treaty,” Jordanian Prime Minister Omar Razzaz told CNN in March. At the time, it seemed that the relationship could be saved, that Israel and the Trump administration could be deterred from following through on their promises to annex parts of the West Bank.
But for Jordan, it is not just about peace in the region. The end of the two-state solution would present an existential threat to the Kingdom, shaking its identity and future.
A deteriorating relationship with Netanyahu
According to a Palestinian media report quoting a Jordanian official in June, the king did not receive a call from the Israeli prime minister. Jordanian officials neither confirmed nor denied the report, which was widely publicized in the Israeli media.
The Israeli prime minister’s office said the report is not true.
“The message must be clear: annexation will not go unanswered. Because if it does, there will only be a fiercer conflict. Annexation will make a two-state solution impossible,” warned Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi in a committee meeting early in the meeting. June.
The two countries still have close ties when it comes to security and intelligence sharing. Historically, Jordan, although small and with few resources, has always been important to Israel. In a hostile neighborhood, Jordan provided Israel with a buffer on its eastern border and served as a mediator when Israel needed it.
But now Jordan has his own interests at stake. More than half of Jordan’s population of 10 million is of Palestinian descent, and the country is home to more than 2 million registered Palestinian refugees. From a Jordanian perspective, a future Palestinian state would guarantee that these refugees have a right of return and would avoid any possibility of a larger influx of people. Without that state, Jordan could become a de facto state for Palestinians, something that Jordanians fear is, in fact, the ultimate goal of right-wing Israelis.
If Netanyahu goes ahead with the plan on or after July 1, the immediate concern for Jordanians will be to quell anger on their streets, which could put King Abdullah in one of the toughest positions in his government for two decades.
The peace treaty between the two countries never obtained popular support. Lawmakers and the public have been growing for the Kingdom to repeal the peace treaty and sever ties with Israel.
In May, the monarch told the German publication Der Spiegel that if annexation continued, this would lead to “a massive conflict with … Jordan.” While it did not go so far as to threaten to repeal the peace treaty, he said all options were being considered. It was his strongest warning to Israelis so far.
It is unclear what that “conflict” would entail, but unrest in the Middle East is always an opportunity for extremism to flourish. Furthermore, an annexation, whether partial or total, vindicates anyone in Jordan who opposed peace with Israel, and provides those who advocate not trusting Israel the opportunity to turn around and say. “I told you.”
The king’s options are limited. His country relies heavily on aid from the United States, and with a President of the United States who has often used aid as a lever and threatened to withhold it from the allies, Abdullah would have to act carefully. Risking the aid of the United States would be dangerous for the country, especially with the growing public discontent about the state of the economy.
Standing next to King Abdullah in the White House Rose Garden in 2017, President Trump heaped praise on his key ally and promised to consult with the monarch on an Israeli-Palestinian peace plan. But in the months and years that followed, Abdullah was sidelined and his advice was ignored. Jordanian authorities say they only saw the peace plan when it was unveiled in January.
These shifting relationships appear to have led the Jordanian monarchy to bypass the White House in its attempt to avoid annexation and directly appeal to Republican and Democratic US lawmakers. The king made several video calls with leaders of Congress, including Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell in mid-June.
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi participated in a diplomacy marathon, trying to gain international support for Jordan’s campaign to stop annexation. In mid-June, he made a rare visit to Ramallah, the seat of Palestinian Authority power, in a show of support for the Palestinians. He also made a series of calls with his Arab and Western counterparts, including German, Austrian, Egyptian, Irish and Finnish foreign ministers, asking them to work to stop the annexation.
Jordan’s efforts may do little to avoid the Israeli plan, but pressure from another influential Arab state may be having a greater impact on Israeli decision-making.
In an unusual move, the UAE ambassador to the United States, Yousef Al Otaiba, in an article in the Hebrew language published in an Israeli newspaper, called the annexation move “an illegal seizure”. He gave the Israelis an ultimatum: it is annexation or normalization.
The UAE and other Arab Gulf states have moved closer to normalizing ties with Israel. A strategic relationship that Israel has been seeking for years.
“The annexation will undoubtedly and immediately nullify Israeli aspirations to improve security, economic and cultural ties with the Arab world and with the UAE. With the two most capable armies in the region, common concerns about terrorism and aggression, and a deep and long relationship with the United States, UAE and Israel could form closer and more effective security cooperation, “wrote Al Otaiba.
The influential diplomat also highlighted Jordan and his country’s concerns about the impact annexation will have on the Kingdom. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed reiterated his country’s support for Jordan’s offer in a tweet last week.
“(The annexation) will send shock waves throughout the region, especially Jordan, whose stability, often taken for granted, benefits the entire region, particularly Israel,” Al Otaiba warned.
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