When Modern (MRNA) reported that its mRrna-1273 vaccine-induced immune response in a phase 1 trial, the stock rose 15% in post-market trade to nearly $ 87.00. Since I first introduced this COVID-19 vaccine developer to readers, the stock more than doubled. As Moderna’s stock peaks at 52 weeks and nears the $ 100 level, investors should take a closer look at the latest clinical results.
Positive data expansion
Moderna released expanded positive provisional data from its original announcement posted on May 18. The company wrote that “neutralizing antibody titers were observed in 100% of the evaluated participants.” The analysis looked at a two-dose mRNA-1273 vaccination schedule. It was administered 28 days apart using three dose levels: 25 µg, 100 µg and 250 µg. The 45 healthy subjects who participated were between 18 and 55 years old.
Importantly, Moderna did not yet have subjects who would benefit more from the vaccine. That includes subjects older than 55 and who may be less healthy. And why should I? The study is evaluating the neutralizing antibody titers of the vaccine without any other health factors. Still, the study reported 21%, or three of the 14 participants, who reported one or more serious events, albeit at the highest dose level.
After the second vaccination, more than half (54% or seven of 13 participants) had a requested systemic adverse event with the smallest dose of 25 µg. All 14 participants in the 250 µg group experienced side effects. Side effects “at the 100 µg dose were fatigue (80%), chills (80%), headache (60%), and myalgia (53%), all of which were transient and of mild or moderate intensity.”
Moderna turned to the bearish article published on May 21, in which the author noted that T cells were neglected. It stated that “T cell responses were also assessed at the 25 µg and 100 µg dose levels. After the second vaccination, mRNA-1273 elicited Th1-biased CD4 T cell responses without significant elevation of responses of Th2-skewed CD4 T cells. “
Test on older subjects
Moderna has an ongoing study evaluating the durability of immune responses. You have seven additional cohorts in the Phase 1 study that completes enrollment. This will include 30 adults ages 56-70. When publishing these results separately, investors will have a clearer idea of the willingness of the population to take this vaccine if it is marketed.
Performance and target price
After Moderna doubled, it encouraged me to look for more actions that could be duplicated. Since January 28, 2020, the stock has more than doubled.
(Data courtesy of Seeking Alpha Premium)
Before its Phase 3 trial on July 27 involving 30,000 adult subjects, the action can easily cross the $ 100 level. By contrast, Novavax (NVAX) started the year at around $ 4.00 and recently traded at $ 109.97.
Data by YCharts
Below: Moderna, Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) are three COVID-19 works that biotech investors should watch closely.
Data by YCharts
Pfizer’s underperformance suggests DIY investors would like the value. Strong buying volumes at BioNTech and Moderna suggest better returns in the short term.
Modern may have trouble maintaining the $ 100 level and increasing from there. The last time the shares soared to $ 80.00, the administration issued shares, ending the recovery of the shares. The $ 1.6 billion Novavax received from Operation Warp Speed allowed the company to avoid a dilution of shares. That also prevented his actions from falling.
On Wall Street, analysts recently issued “Buy” ratings on Moderna with a target price between $ 90.00 and $ 100.00:
(Source: TipRanks)
The average price target is $ 86.46. But if the stock is trading above that, analysts may feel pressure to upgrade the company to avoid looking bad.
According to a Stockrover research report, Moderna is entering its seasonally strongest period between August and November 2020:
(Data courtesy of Stockrover)
The global urgency to have a vaccine ready and the popularity of COVID-19 vaccine providers could help stocks maintain the $ 100 level.
Your takeaway food
If management does not issue shares after the last break, Moderna should continue to reward investors. But investors who bought the shares just to see them fall may want to sell at the rally. Either way, Moderna continues to earn its place as one of several best diy ideas in the value investment market. Their prospects are brighter after the release of the clinical data.
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Divulge: I / we have no positions in any mentioned action, and we have no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself and express my own opinions. I receive no compensation for it (other than Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose shares are mentioned in this article.
