Batteries
Published in July 1, 2020 |
by Steve Hanley
July 1, 2020 by Steve Hanley
The lithium ion battery is exhausted. Long live the lithium iron battery! Those words signal a revolutionary change in battery technology, which will cause a dramatic increase in demand for electric cars and trucks. Over the past decade, billions of hours and billions of dollars have been spent figuring out how to make solid-state lithium-ion batteries. Now it seems like lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries can completely change the conversation.
One of the characteristics of LFP batteries is that they do not use cobalt. Not only is cobalt expensive, but much of it is dug by children in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, giving anti-EV advocates a chance to talk about the evils of electric cars and vent their anger on devices. digital devices that use cobalt in their batteries.
Cobalt-free means less expensive batteries, allowing manufacturers to lower the price of their electric vehicles. We know we should all be driving electric cars for environmental and health reasons, but money is what makes the world go round. Cheaper EVs will inexorably lead to more EVs. It’s as simple as that.
The second characteristic in favor of LFP batteries is their long life. There is a lot of misinformation in the world about electric cars. Many people still believe that electric car batteries should be replaced every 5 years or so. The fear of getting stuck with an expensive repair is very real to many who are considering buying an EV. Removing that fear will be an important consideration in moving the EV revolution forward.
“If you’re talking about batteries that can last twice as long for the same price, that completely changes the math for the consumer,” says Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities. CNBC. “Iron phosphate batteries are safer and can have a second or third life as storage for electricity.”
Shirley Meng is a materials scientist and professor at the University of California, San Diego, where she directs her Center for Energy and Sustainable Energy. Meng has extensive battery research experience and has worked with several major automotive companies, including Mercedes-Benz, General Motors, and Nissan. She was also involved with Maxwell Technologies, the starter battery acquired by Tesla last year.
Meng tells him CNBC that to cut battery costs, companies will also have to ditch nickel, which is the second most expensive component in batteries. While today’s nickel, manganese, and cobalt batteries – the choice of many non-Tesla automakers – could hit the magic threshold of a million miles, they won’t be able to do it profitably at today’s nickel concentrations, he says. With lithium iron phosphate, which removes nickel and cobalt, there is a possible way to lower battery prices to as low as $ 80 / kWh.
Tesla Battery Day
The entire world is waiting and waiting for Tesla Battery Day, now tentatively scheduled for September 15. CNBC He contacted Tesla and Jeff Dahn, the super scientist and battery consultant at Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, but they both declined to comment on the upcoming event and what secrets it may reveal.
Shirley Meng says: “I really think Tesla is planning to take this back (LFP battery technology).” But if so, Tesla is hedging its bets by signing a long-term supply contract with Glencore for cobalt, presumably for the batteries it will use in cars produced in Berlin and Shanghai. “It will be difficult to get less than $ 100 per kilowatt,” says Meng of the current chemistry of nickel cobalt. “Tesla realized that they cannot get rid of cobalt.”
James Frith, head of energy storage at Bloomberg New Energy Finance in London, expects battery cell prices to drop below $ 100 per kWh by 2024 at the latest and drop to $ 60 per kWh by 2030. ” At that point, you have options, either as a car manufacturer or a consumer, “he says.” You can choose a larger battery that takes you further (between charges). Or you can get a battery that is optimized for a life cycle. longer useful “.
Hyundai’s stage
Long-lasting batteries, like CATL’s rumored million-mile battery, could really move the needle for electric vehicle sales, says Brett Smith, chief technology officer for the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan. “It will undoubtedly signal that the technology has arrived,” he says. CNBC. “That is what Hyundai did.”
In 2005, Hyundai introduced its 100,000-mile factory warranty, which helped the Korean automaker double its sales. Smith believes the million-mile battery could have a similar effect on electric vehicle sales. Then there is the question of resale value. A car with a long-lasting battery will be worth more on the used car market than one with a battery nearing the end of its useful life.
A second life for batteries
Frankly, not many cars stay on the road that long, but long-lasting batteries could have a second life for energy storage purposes, either on the grid scale or in behind-the-meter systems for homeowners or businesses. It’s hard to imagine a used battery being a big-money asset, but that could be exactly what happens as long-life batteries are available in a few years. Total cost of ownership calculations would suddenly have to consider a new parameter: how much an owner could sell an EV battery for when the car is too old to drive.
Shirley Meng says that it is now possible to make batteries in the laboratory that have a much longer lifespan, and she anticipates that they will be commercially available by 2025. “What I see is a lot of progress and we are already a few steps ahead. We have a way. “But when it comes to CEOs, he says,” They think they can do it at scale. I’m not sure we’re there yet. We don’t want to promise too much or disappoint, but.
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About the Author
Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his homes in Florida and Connecticut or anywhere else Singularity can take him. You can follow him on Twitter but not on any social media platform run by evil lords like Facebook.
