The Bruins are testing enough on the battlefield that it is not often that you choose them to lose a series without a second thought. For what a great goalie, difficult line or great record an opponent can have, Boston has often found solutions over the years.
(Sure, the solution was usually just “Zdeno Chara”, but still.)
Here we are, however. Sunday, the Bruins will begin the second round against a Lightning team that must defeat them. Tampa is better offensively and, now that Tuukka Rask is back home, has a clear edge in goal with reigning Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Plus, they took three of four meetings in the regular season and the round-robin matchup.
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I choose the Lightning to win the series, knew two things:
1. I will not be alone. Tampa will be a popular pick, as many consider it the cup favorite.
The Bruins were also clear underdogs against a laden team in the 2013 Eastern Conference Finals against the Penguins. No one gave the Bruins many shots, and they stopped Pittsburgh from scoring two goals in the course of a sweep.
There are many reasons to choose Tampa. Better roster, questions about David Pastrnak’s health, the fact that it’s an early year, so the team that always wins would actually make sense for some reason, and so on.
But I’ll just continue with what I’ve been saying all along: Tampa’s group on D is closer to Boston’s than Boston’s forwards to Tampa’s. Plus, I do not dismiss the Lightning as chokers because of how they embarrassed themselves in the first round last year. Maybe they are, but they have at least extinct that first round demon by defeating the Blue Jackets this year.
Even teams that have lowered themselves have found ways to fuel it for next year. The Bruins won the cup a year after their 3-0 series lead / 3-0 Game 7 lead vs. Philly debacle.
The Bruins will need Jaroslav Halak to be great to stay alive. If he plays the way he did in Game 4 (or, in part, Game 3) of the Carolina series, Boston has no chance. If he finds another gear and gives Boston the kind of game they got from Tuukka Rask, who is the top 10 in percentage of savings after career, they can be in business.
But remember, the Bruins played Tampa in the postseason with Rask and lost. But why? Because of the discrepancy over crime. Two years ago, Patrice Bergeron lined up with Tampa in Game 1 when Boston led the series. Then Brayden Point decided that the fun was over, dominated the Bergeron line and that was that. You can not defeat Tampa if you only go one or two things. You need more.
And I was never sure that the Bruins of 2019-20 have been more than one great line / power game, a strong defense and great (now good) goal tending. Those are all great qualities to have, which is why the Bruins are one of the best teams in the league. They just stand for a better face.
I do not like the wings of Boston to the topline, but Tampas are great. Look at the middle sixes for both teams and tell me that Tampa does not get your mark.
While David Krejci’s stellar play should inspire confidence in Boston’s second line, check out Anthony Cirelli’s Tampa second trio between Alex Killorn (26 goals) and Tyler Johnson (a year removed from 29 goals). If Steven Stamkos returns at any point, he will strengthen a top six led by Point and Kucherov.
Boston’s third line remains a work in progress. Sean Kuraly is an excellent fourth-liner who is asked to play left wing of the third line. Jack Studnicka is an exciting young player, but still a rookie. Tampa, which loads on the trade date, has Yanni Gourde who has Barclay Goodrow and 20-goal scorer Blake Coleman in the center.
Give me Bruce Cassidy about Jon Cooper, but I’ll take Cooper’s roster, which also includes the best defender in this series in Victor Hedman. The Bruins will make it a series – let’s say six games.
Can the Bruins win? Of course. I can still remember Brad Marchand after Game 4 of that 2013 Penguins series in 2013 who said no one gave her a chance, and I can imagine him saying it again in a week or so via a Press conference.
Still, much like a quarterback with only two offers in free agency, I choose Tampa.
