Nairobi, Kenya (AP) – Suddenly Ethiopia appears on the coast Civil war threatening the stability of the fracture of one of the world’s most strategic regions, Horn Africa in Africa and one of Africa’s most powerful and populous countries.
Dino Mahtani, with the International Crisis Group, said this week that Ethiopia, a key ally of the U.S. security, has been building up the crisis for months, and “it has been like watching a slow-moving train crash.” Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi Ahmed has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year for accelerating political reforms, facing the most drastic consequences of the country’s recent change of power.
Here are the main causes of international alarms:
What happened now
Two things happened early Wednesday morning: Ethiopia cut off communications in Ethiopia’s heavily armed northern Tigris region, and Abi announced that he had ordered troops to respond. Alleged fatal attack by Tigre forces on a military base there. Both sides have accused each other of starting a fight.
And late Thursday night both increased pressure. The Ethiopian army said it was deploying troops to Tigre from across the country, and the Tigre leader accused fighter jets of bombing parts of the regional capital. “We are ready to be martyred,” he said. Casualties have been reported from both sides.
Some experts have compared the confrontation to an inter-state war, with two large and well-trained forces and few signs of retreat. Ethiopia is one of the most well-equipped nations in Africa, and the Tigre People’s Liberation Front dominated Ethiopia’s military and government before taking power in Abia in 2018. Tigre’s front door, Ethiopia, has its conflicting experience with Ethiopia’s years-long border war. The region and the International Crisis Group estimate that the TPLF The paramilitary force and the local army have about 250,000 troops.
While communication is still pending, it is difficult to verify the account on both sides of events on the ground.
How did we get here?
He appointed Abiye as prime minister in 2018 to help Ethiopia’s ruling coalition hold quiet months of anti-government protests, and to quickly crack down on repressive measures in a country of about 110 million people and a number of ethnic groups and open political space – and Nobel – . Groups. But the TPLF was increasingly marginalized and last year it withdrew from the ruling coalition.
TPLF He objected to Ethiopia’s delayed elections, which blamed the COVID-19 epidemic, and Abiya’s extra time in office. In September, the Tigre region voted in local elections that the Ethiopian federal government declared illegal. The federal government later joined the TPLF. Departed from the executive to turn money for local governments, angry at the regional leadership.
On Monday, Tigre leader Debretsian Gabremaikle warned that bloody conflict could erupt.
What will happen now?
The conflict could spread to other parts of Ethiopia, where some territories are calling for more autonomy and deadly ethnic violence. Measures including arresting critics have led the federal government to restore order.
Addressing that fear, Ethiopia’s deputy army chief Birhanu Jula said late Thursday night about the tigers, “The war will end there.”
Some governments and experts are urgently calling for talks on Tigre, but Addis Ababa, a Western diplomat in the capital, says, “The message from Ethiopians is, if you talk about dialogue, you should treat both parties equally, but ‘this is legal government, It is a renewal group. “The aim put forward by Ethiopia is to crush the TPLF, and the diplomat said on condition of anonymity,” If I say I will crush you, then is there really room for anyone? Negotiation? ”
TPLF before the fight. He said he was not interested in negotiating with the federal government, and demanded that the detained leaders be released as a precondition for negotiations. Observers say there must be a content dialogue, but a former U.S. official for the United States Institute for Peace. A statement by a panel of diplomats and military experts late Thursday night warned that it would not go further “while many of the country’s leading political leaders will be in it.” Prison
What does this mean other than Ethiopia?
Few regions are more sensitive than the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s neighbors include Somalia – for Ethiopian forces to return to the country – and Sudan, reportedly facing its own huge political transition. Neighboring Eritrea has shown very few signs of opening up after making peace with Ethiopia in 2018, and is not joining its government and Tigre.
One area in which Abi has played the role of a high-profile peacemaker is now at risk.
Observers warn that conflict in these countries and elsewhere could lead to the removal of Africa’s most strategic military outpost, small Djibouti, where U.S. And many global powers, including China, have the only military bases on the continent. Horn Africa is also a short distance from Yemen and the rest of the Arabian Peninsula.
Ethiopia was already worried about the dispute with downstream Egypt over a huge dam Ethiopia is nearing completion on the Blue Nile. While concerns are being raised about military action, “I think Egypt is an actor responsible enough to understand that Ethiopia’s partition is fundamentally detrimental to regional security,” said Patten Knopp, a former U.S. diplomat and senior at the United States Institute. Advisor Peace, said this week.
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