If there is a state in the US where you don’t want a pandemic, it’s Florida. Florida is an international crossroads, a magnet for tourists and retirees, and its population is older, sicker, and more likely to be exposed to COVID-19 at work than the country as a whole.
When he hit the coronavirus, the conditions there made it a perfect storm.
Florida set a single-day record for new COVID-19 cases in early July, topping 15,000 and rivaling New York’s worst day at the height of the pandemic there. The state has become an epicenter of the spread, with more than 300,000 confirmed cases. Their hospital capacity is under stress and the death toll has increased.
Despite these tensions, Disney World reopened two theme parks on July 11, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced that the schools would reopen in August. The governor had ordered bars to be closed in late June as case numbers skyrocketed, but he has not made face masks mandatory or moved to close other businesses where the virus can easily spread.
As public health researchers, we have been studying how states respond to the pandemic. Florida stands out, both for its absence of state policies that could have slowed the spread of COVID-19 and for some unique challenges that make those policies more necessary and more difficult to implement than in many other states.
The challenges of economic pressures.
Florida is one of the nine states with no income tax on wages, making its tax base highly dependent on tourism and property in its high-density coastal areas. That puts more pressure on the government to keep businesses and social venues open longer and reopen them faster after closings.
If you look closely at Florida’s economy, its vulnerabilities to the pandemic become apparent.
The state depends on international trade, tourism and agriculture, sectors that are highly dependent on lower-wage workers, often seasonal. These workers cannot do their work from home, and face financial barriers to testing, unless done through their employer or government testing sites. They also struggle with health care: Florida has a higher than average rate of uninsured people, and decided not to expand Medicaid. In the tourism industry, even young, healthy employees who generally have a lower risk of COVID-19 can unknowingly transmit the virus to visitors or vice versa. The tourism industry also encourages scenes full of bars and clubs, where the governor blamed young people for spreading the coronavirus.
The past few weeks have been emblematic of the economic battles facing a state that depends on tourism for both state jobs and income.
Despite rapidly increasing public health risks, companies continued to open their doors. Major cruise lines planned to resume their itineraries in the fall. A note on the Universal Studios website said: “Exposure to COVID-19 is an inherent risk in any public place where people are present; We cannot guarantee that you will not be exposed during your visit. “
Matt Stroshane via Disney
The reopening of the guide has been largely ignored
The Governor’s Florida Reopening Task Force issued guidelines in late April aimed at reducing the state’s risk of coronavirus, but those guidelines have been ignored in practice.
No county in Florida has reduced cases or maintained the health care resources recommended by the task force. The data needed to fully assess progress is also questionable, given a recent scandal regarding the accuracy, availability, and transparency of state data.
Still, the rapid increase in the coronavirus in Florida is evident in cases reported by the state. The test lines are long, and almost 1 in 5 tests have been positive for COVID-19, suggesting that the prevalence of infections continues to rise.
Florida’s mosaic of local regulations also makes it difficult to contain the spread of the virus.
With no statewide mask rules or plans to reverse the reopening, other than for bars, communities, and businesses, they have taken their own steps to implement public health precautions. The result is a variety of mask ordinances and restrictions at large gatherings in some cities, but not those around them. Although the Florida Department of Health has issued a notice recommending covering the face, some local areas have rejected the mask mandates.
More warning signs ahead
The end of summer and fall will bring new challenges for Florida in terms of the spread of the virus and the state’s response to it.
That’s when Florida’s hurricane risk grows, and while Floridians are well versed in hurricane preparedness, storm shelters are not designed for social alienation and will need careful plans to protect nursing home residents. . Storm cleaning could mean that many people work nearby, while protective gear is scarce.
If Florida schools are reopened entirely, the risk of the virus spreading rapidly to more vulnerable teachers, parents, and children is a real concern compared to the costs of keeping schools closed.
Universities that reopen to classes and sporting events also increase the risk of spreading the virus in Florida communities. And the possible return of retirees spending their winters in Florida would increase the high-risk population in late fall. One in five Florida residents is over the age of 65, giving the state one of the oldest populations in the country, a risk factor, along with chronic disease, for severe symptoms with COVID-19.
Florida is also a battleground state for the upcoming presidential election, and that will likely mean campaign rallies and closer contact. The Republican National Convention moved to Jacksonville after President Donald Trump complained that North Carolina might not allow the Republican Party to fill a Charlottesville stadium to capacity due to coronavirus restrictions. Florida organizers recently said they were considering hosting parts of the outdoor convention.
The large number of reported cases in Florida will lead to more hospitalizations and deaths in the coming weeks and months. With no clear public health messages and precautions implemented and enforced across the state, the coronavirus forecast for the Sunshine State will remain stormy.
This article has been updated with the latest state case data.
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