He would have to search far and wide to find a better match between a runner and his organization than Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans are committed to open-mouth soccer, even in today’s chuck-it-around era. Henry is a towering 6 foot 3 inch 250 pound freight train of a man with starting speed and a stiff arm from hell. He is the game’s biggest player, a worthy successor to Eddie George and Earl Campbell, famous behind the organization’s past power.
Despite all the talk about the current devaluation of the NFL running back position, in hindsight perhaps it should come as no surprise that the Titans locked him up long-term on Wednesday.
The Titans wouldn’t let Henry play with the $ 10.2 million franchise tag in 2020 and risk alienating the top player from a team that shocked the world after arriving in the AFC championship game in January. Instead, the two parties came to a four-year contract worth $ 50 million, with $ 25.5 million guaranteed.
Derrick Henry landed the rare long-term deal for a running back before an NFL season potentially threatened by COVID. (Photo by Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)
The uncertainty of the NFL salary cap
Although some were quick to scoff at the deal, precisely citing that many of the league’s best and smartest teams avoid paying large amounts to runners, it’s not difficult to see why both sides accepted it.
For Henry, it is obvious. With COVID-19’s fury, there is enormous uncertainty in NFL circles about the 2021 salary cap and how much lower it could be if (and when) league revenue plummets this year. We’re talking about millions of dollars, folks, perhaps even beyond the widely projected drop from $ 20 million to $ 30 million, a central office source recently told Yahoo Sports.
That means few valued players will receive a huge payout next season, and those who hit the market may end up having to accept short-term, low-market deals.
The free agent running class of 2021 will be a loaded shopper market, slated to include Pro Bowl talents like Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, and Phillip Lindsay. There will also be an equally deep draft class at the booth. All of this makes Henry wise to take a little more guaranteed money ($ 25.5 million) than he would earn in two more years of the franchise tag (approximately $ 23 million).
“If you’re a guy like Derrick Henry and you’re a runner, lock yourself up, get as much money as you can now,” a central office evaluator told Yahoo Sports on Wednesday. “You can hurt yourself … you could suck … your line could stink … you just don’t know.”
Titans hope 2019 success will continue
The Titans bet on Henry at that price, and in doing so they locked up a man who ran for 1,540 yards, scored 18 touchdowns last season and is just getting into his prime.
Furthermore, paying Henry, the main focus of defenses, is also a way to ensure that the same set of circumstances that allowed quarterback Ryan Tannehill to thrive in 2019 remain in place for the future. And after the Titans handed over Tannehill, a Miami scrap before last season, $ 91 million in total guarantees this offseason, that makes sense, too.
While big backs traditionally age poorly, Henry, who turned 26 in January, should excel for at least three more seasons, as runners generally fall around age 29. That means the Titans could cut him off at that age with two years left on his deal, thus creating plenty of pay space. It’s a dirty game, but hey, that’s how it works.
Versatility matters in RB
Finally, there’s also this to keep in mind: In a vacuum, the Titans are getting value in the deal. Henry’s average annual salary of $ 12.5 million ranks fifth among his position in the NFL, which is not proportional to his offense’s dependence on his abilities. Once again, life is about leverage, and today’s NFL runners with heavy passes and threatened by COVID don’t have much.
Up to that point, it’s tempting to wonder if Henry’s deal will be an indicator of what kind of contracts other star brokers to whom extensions will be awarded may soon negotiate with their respective clubs.
Interestingly, two NFL evaluators who came to this column thought that two backups in particular that should soon be ready for new contacts, Kamara of the New Orleans Saints and Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants, will not be affected by the deal. Henry.
“They would probably pay them more [than him] Anyway, “one of the testers noted.” Kamara is deadly in the passing game. Saquon is a versatile back.
Don’t underestimate the importance of that versatility. While Henry caught a total of 18 balls last year, Barkley averaged 71 catches in the past two seasons, while Kamara averaged 81.
Today’s NFL is about throwing the stone, and several raters noted that teams are much more comfortable paying a lot of money to runners who may present themselves in the passing game as “weapons.”
That’s why Dallas gave Ezekiel Elliott (77 receptions in 2018) a monstrous $ 50 million contract guaranteed last September. That’s why Carolina lavished Christian McCaffrey (116 receptions in 2019) with a $ 36.3 million contract guaranteed in April. Heck, that’s why the New York Jets rewarded Le’Veon Bell with a rich deal worth $ 35 million guaranteed after an 85-catch season in 2017.
So yes, that’s the decisive lesson that every NFL running back should draw from the Henry deal. Even if you’re one of a kind, tight-sized runner with sprinter speed like the Titans star, if you want to get the big, big bucks in this league as a runner, you’d better be a dangerous catcher pass like McCaffrey, or at least a prolific and productive one, like Bell.
Given the uncertain state of the 2021 salary cap and the glut of capable and productive brokers expected to be available next spring, the next big payday will likely depend on it.
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