Once the doors reopen and people leave without a year of Covid-19 precautions, it is possible that there could be new strains of the flu that scientists did not expect, said Cody Meissner, a Tufts infectious disease specialist and pediatrician. Was. Children’s Hospital which also serves on the FDA Vaccine Advisory Panel. In a country plagued by epidemics without a strong enough vaccine, it can experience a severe flu season as soon as it comes out fighting coronavirus.
“We may have a combination of fewer public health measures at the population level with a less effective vaccine. And then next year you may have a ragging flu season, ”said Lawrence Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University.
Concerns over the harsh effects of the shockingly quiet flu season came to light at a meeting of the Food and Drug Administration’s Independent Vaccine Advisory Committee earlier this month. While experts suggested that lessons could be learned from last year’s flu season that could help curb high flu rates in future years, they also struggled for a project on what the coming winter could bring.
“We asked him during the meeting, ‘Has there ever been such a moment?’ There was very little flu outbreak where anyone could decide what happened next year, but this is truly unprecedented, ”said Paul Fitte, a vaccine expert at the University of Pennsylvania and a member of the FDA’s vaccine advisory. Panel.
Influenza is already a tough virus to track, Gostine said, because it mutates faster than other familiar viruses like measles. The rapid flu change law creates many strains each year.
The process of predicting which flu strains are affected in each flu season is a global effort. The World Health Organization encourages experts to predict flu strains twice a year – each time for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres – based on data collected by labs around the world. It includes the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, one of the WHO’s six “collaboration centers” for flu research.
At the Northern Hemisphere meeting in February, experts review what stress spreads as it approaches autumn in the Southern Hemisphere – and use the information to interpret what stresses occur in the northern part of the world months later. In the United States, the FDA Vaccine Advisory Committee reviews those recommendations and makes the final decision on the formulation of the flu vaccine that the agency will license.
Kawsar Talat, an assistant scientist at Johns Hopkins, an infectious disease specialist, said experts look at how the virus develops during the season and what strains are dominant until the end of the season.
U.S. Here are some examples of the latest flu season. According to the CDC, the 2011-12 flu season had the lowest and shortest flu record, with the agency reporting that the figures for last season were still one-third of the 2011-12 season’s rate.
From the previous low year, 2012-1 in did not seem to lead to a particularly bad flu season, Talat said, adding that vaccine effectiveness was consistent with most years or more. “It’s too early to know what the flu season will look like next fall or to predict the potential effectiveness of the flu vaccine,” he said.
“In 201-201-2018, we had almost no flu season and so it happens every year. And then last year we had a tripartite, three peaks flu season that was also very unusual. So influenza biology is an interesting subject, ”Talat said.
It Fit said the low levels of the virus this season still have the FDA advisory committee getting enough circulation to select a strain for the vaccine and not worry about the vaccine for next fall.
“The belief is that there were enough circulating viruses to pick up the strain associated with next year’s flu outbreak.”
Influenza was not the only winter respiratory virus that was seen in small numbers this season. Resp Fit said rates of respiratory syncytial virus were also lower. With the disappearance of the winter respiratory virus, health experts are wondering if Covid-19 mitigation strategies could become a necessary tool to combat them every year.
“I mean we can reasonably wear masks in the winter months, at least when we’re in a big crowd?” The office said. “Have we learned that we are ready, or are we happy with the hundreds of hospitalized cases due to the flu and 10 deaths per second? I doubt the answer is B. We are comfortable with it, we are ready to know it, even though we have just learned, there is a way to prevent it. “
“People are ready to get back to a normal state in life, and the Covid-19 epidemic fatigue can mask people at the right time for the flu and eat social distance,” Gostin said.
“Remember, after the 1918 flu pandemic, most people don’t realize what happened when it happened. But what happened was a roaring 20s, ”Gostin said. “People started hugging, hugging, hugging, kissing. All the things they miss. They thronged the theaters and stadiums and went back to church. This is likely to happen the same fall and make the influenza virus very happy. “
