Kevin C. Cox / Associated Press
Let’s call the NBA’s race for eighth and ninth place in the Western Conference what it is: pure, total, brainwashing anarchy.
Which makes it great.
And also completely confusing.
Removing the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings from the fracks has not done much to simplify the range of outcomes. The Memphis Grizzlies (currently eighth), Portland Trail Blazers (ninth), Phoenix Suns (10th) and San Antonio Spurs (11th) enter their last two matchups in the regular season with no more than a single game separating them. in the loss pillar.
Each of them can technically finish eighth. Or ninth. Their possible paths to one of those spots are seemingly endless. The Athletic’s John Hollinger did a fantastic job by breaking what needs to happen for each squad to crack the play-off tournament. I can not do it better and will not try it.
Instead, seeing that labyrinth of logistics, I’m more interested in trying to answer the question everyone has been asking since the league unveiled the startup format: Which two teams are now best placed to qualify for the play-in tournament ?
Ashley Landis / Associated Press
Last opponents: Houston Rockets (Aug. 11), Utah Jazz (Aug. 13)
The Spurs bill is for non-good nincompoops. They are the friggin ‘Spurs. They work for a reason with 22 straight phenomena after the season. They are here, alive for one of the play-in spots, because they are not the pushover artists in the past, who many paint them to be pre-bubble.
Jimmes was really among those cries that predicted San Antonio’s return to the lottery. Can also remain as consistent.
That’s not me throwing wet toilet paper on the wall and hoping it sticks. Not at all. Their Disney World hull just doesn’t feel durable.
Derrick White has been brilliant, but left Sunday’s win over the Pelicans with an injury to his left knee. Keldon Johnson has not missed a wide open try since, about the Tim Duncan era. Drew Eubanks is actually playing and party-crashing shots at the rim and hanging in space. Only the Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers shoot a better percentage of three.
Losing or not having White at his best is enough on its own to make the Spurs doubt it. Even if he is good, her most likely path to the play-in tournament includes winning. That’s … a medium order.
Houston needs nothing really play for but sit Tuesday not everyone. James Harden and Eric Gordon do not play; Robert Covington, PJ Tucker and Russell Westbrook should be.
The Jazz are more of a wild card. So they apparently have no interest in finishing fifth and playing the Rockets and then taught a masterclass in mid-game tanking on Monday. But if they want the sixth seed and the Dallas Mavericks have a chance to win, they might, possibly, worry about the end result of Thursday’s matchup with the Spurs, which in turn is bad news for San Antonio would be.
Kevin C. Cox / Associated Press
Last opponents: Philadelphia 76ers (Aug. 11), Dallas Mavericks (Aug. 13)
Writing the untested, Disney World-best Suns feels like a betrayal of basketball.
Mikal Bridges wipes out opponents of the planet at will. Jevon Carter picks up his defense assignments outside her hotel room. Cameron Johnson hits threes and makes quick passes and hardly serves as a stanchion in cement at the less glamorous end. Cameron Payne is actually one of the best shooters in life. Ricky Rubio hits 44.4 percent of his treys. Deandre Ayton looks like a viable no. 2.
Oh, yes, and Phoenix has this Devin Booker man. It turns out he’s pretty good. He averages 30.3 points and 6.0 assists in the bubble over absurd efficiency:
You can understand why this is such a difficult call. It’s even harder to know that Booker played under 30 minutes in Monday’s win and Ayton, who did not join the Suns until after tip-off because he missed a coronavirus test, logged just over 17 They should be fresh for the second end of Tuesday’s back-to-back against the Sixers, who will miss Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, and potentially, a bunch of other people:
Whether the Mavericks decide to fully drill Thursday depends on their longing and ability to snare sixth place. The Clippers advance in the first round would register as a win, but Dallas needs to win its last two games and needs San Antonio to beat Utah before that can happen.
Putting the Suns here is both a high-pressure move against the Mavericks who could potentially worry about Thursday’s outcome and, more than that, the sheer difficulty of going undefeated at Disney. Plus, they’ll still need a little help – from Memphis or Portland – to grab a play-in slot, even if they go 8-0.
Ashley Landis / Associated Press
Last opponents: Boston Celtics (Aug. 11), Milwaukee Bucks (Aug. 13)
The Grizzlies juuust side the Suns that need to be-longed for, and I do not feel great about it. They are here for clean convenience. They could lose each of their last two games and still climb a play-in bid, as Hollinger put off card:
Memphis will make the playoffs with a win, as a loss by both Phoenix and San Antonio, as well as by two losses by Portland and one by Phoenix or San Antonio.
“Memphis infects the 8th seed with two wins, as a win and a Portland loss. Less likely they are the 8th seed if Portland loses twice and Phoenix and San Antonio both lose at least once.”
Maybe this is still overestimating the chances of the Grizzlies.
They have no Years Jackson Jr. (torn left meniscus) or Justise Winslow (hip), and Tyus Jones remains sidelined with his own right knee injury. Hardly any of their lineups make more sense. They have an Indiana Pacers West atmosphere against them, and perform relative to the talent on the floor, but they are desperately thin on shooting from the outside, and Dillon Brooks is actively trying to give Grizz fans a heart attack:
Each of the next two games left is a distinct possibility – and probably depends on how the Bucks approach Thursday’s showdown. The Celtics own the pickup of the first round of Grizzlies’ 2020 (top-six protection) and have every reason to go for the win. Milwaukee is already scheduled for the Orlando Magic in the first round and has zero incentives to roll out a full cast against Memphis, unless recently returning Eric Bledsoe needs more reps with the starters.
Think of this as a lukewarm judgment that the Grizzlies are figuring out a way to go 1-1 over the next two games. The efficiency of Ja Morant is underway, but he is still Ja Morant. Brandon Clarke and Jonas Valanciunas are much better than they have shown.
Maybe Kyle Anderson has a big game in him. Or maybe De’Anthony Melton is forcing 37 steals against a Bucks half-court penalty that may have missed Giannis Antetokounmpo. I do not know. This stuff is hard. I regret everything.
Kevin C. Cox / Associated Press
Last opponents: Dallas Mavericks (Aug. 11), Brooklyn Nets (Aug. 13)
It speaks to the fragility and Bol Bol-thin margin for error of this whole process that I am most confident in the Blazers bagging one of the two play-in spots.
Like the Grizzlies, they control their own destiny. Winning protects their entrance. Taking care of nothing should not be a problem. Their full-strength bubble poster is not even half its full-strength real poster. The Mavs, on the other hand, have something to play for – insofar as they want to finish sixth instead of seventh. Things can get ugly for the Blazers if Dallas’ offense is on point.
Then again, after the Mavericks fall, it would not be the end of the world. Portland has other ways to finish eighth or ninth – hypothetics who are becoming exponentially more likely than one of the Spurs of Suns to lose Tuesday.
Perhaps the Blazers deserve the benefit of the doubt. Sy rank 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions since the restart and could not find a way to defeat a Clippers squad that was kind, kind, absolutely trying to help boost their chances after the season.
Still, Portland has Damian Lillard, a walking 40-to-50 piece. CJ McCollum is an offensive weapon in his own right. Jusuf Nurkic is already much better on the defensive end. Carmelo Anthony shoots well. Gary Trent Jr. has missed one, three, never one. Opposite crimes silence nearly 46 percent of their wide-open threes against them. That should normalize immediately.
This team not only seems to be the most likely play-in participant. It feels like the favorite to win it.
Unless otherwise stated, stats thanks to NBA.com, Basketball Reference of Cleaning the Glass and current section in Friday’s games. Salary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders, Early Bird Rights and Spotrac.
Dan Favale occupies the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B / R’s Adam Fromal.
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