We are only a week away from the resumption of the NBA season. On Monday, we reintroduced them to the lower tier of teams invited to the league restart at Walt Disney World. Today, we will continue this exercise, with the six teams positioned as possible conference finalists, but we nonetheless project as long shots to take home the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Indiana Pacers
39-26, 6th in the East, 14 Lap Games
FiveThirtyEight Predictions: Playoffs insured, <1% East, <1% Finals
Projected seeding WL: 3-5; 42-31 (sixth in the east)
COVID-19: Malcolm Brogdon (authorized to practice)
After initially declaring for the restart, star guard Victor Oladipo reversed course last week and said there was a “big chance” that he would play. Pacers coach Nate McMillan said Monday that he expected Oladipo to take part in the team’s scrimmages, apparently setting the stage for him to take the field once the actual games are back up and running. Oladipo had struggled heavily before the hiatus on his return from a long absence after the quadruple tendon snapped in his knee, but perhaps he is now more ready to play after he has been given more than four months to heal. Brogdon, in addition to being removed from the virus, says the hip injury he suffered in March has been healed. With Jeremy Lamb still out after breaking his ACL in February, the Pacers urgently need one or both players to return to the court to make real noise in the playoffs, and now they can have both. However, they will likely find it difficult to advance in the postseason as they are likely to end up with all 6 seeds, of which they would presumably have to defeat the Bucks, Raptors, and Celtics to reach the NBA Finals.
Dallas Mavericks
40-27, West 7th, 11 Lap Games
FiveThirtyEight Predictions: > 99% playoffs, 1% West, <1% Finals
Projected seeding WL: 4-4; 44-31 (seventh in the west)
COVID-19: There are no public reports or announcements.
Technically, the Mavs haven’t yet made a playoff spot, but all it would take is any combination of Mavericks wins and Grizzlies losses equaling two. Dallas enters the bubble sporting the most efficient offense in modern basketball history, a unit that has absolutely wiped out teams by using a setup with Kristaps Porziņģis in the center that we should see even more in Orlando. Dallas has scored in the all-funny clip of 122.9 points per 100 possessions in minutes that aren’t trash, featuring Porziņģis as the lonely big man and Luka Dončić on the floor, according to Cleaning the Glass, a number that more than relieves worries. Mild that some had information on how this offensive would work without Dwight Powell’s tough scrolls on the brink. The Mavs will not only be without Powell (Achilles torn) in Orlando, but also with Willie Cauley-Stein, who chose not to restart.
Miami Heat
41-24, third in the west, 7 games back
FiveThirtyEight Predictions: Playoffs insured, <1% East, <1% Finals
Projected seeding WL: 3-5; 44-29 (5th in the east)
COVID-19: Three unnamed players (reported), Derrick Jones Jr. (returned to practice, where he is throwing ridiculous dunks)
Miami was put to work by the schedule gods on reboot. The Heat would face below-average schedule strength if the regular season had continued apace, but they will now face the second-toughest list of qualifying games in the league. We projected them to go 3-5 in those games, lagging behind both the Celtics and 76ers in the process. Instead of facing the Pacers in the first round of the playoffs, we would have them against the Sixers. That’s a significantly more difficult matchup, particularly now that Ben Simmons is healthy, and that is reflected in Miami joining the Jazz as the only teams currently in the top half of their playoff groups, which we give less of. 1 percent chance of winning the conference. .
Oklahoma City thunder
40-24, fifth in the west, 9.5 return games
FiveThirtyEight Predictions: Playoffs insured, 1% West, <1% Finals
Projected seeding WL: 4-4; 44-28 (sixth in the west)
COVID-19: There are no public reports or announcements.
No team exceeded punters’ preseason expectations more than the Thunder, and it wasn’t particularly close. When the season closed, OKC was on track to crush its preseason in excess by 19 wins. The next closest teams were the Lakers and Grizzlies, with 13 wins. What makes it even more remarkable is that the Thunder started the season 6-11, only to kick off a 34-13 stretch (a 60-win pace) the rest of the way. Add the fact that they are entering the bubble as one of the few teams that has yet to confirm a positive coronavirus test, and things seem to be looking for them. However, OKC faces the ninth most difficult calendar at Disney, including games against both Los Angeles teams, and believes it will lose Dennis Schröder at some point because his wife will give birth in early August. The Thunder also went 9-17 before the break against teams with a record of .500 or better, and a significant portion of that aforementioned 34-13 run was fueled by a completely unsustainable 24-5 record in games. they entered the clutch time. The teams led by Chris Paul have always been good at clutch, but that kind of record is virtually unknown.
Utah Jazz
41-23, fourth in the west, 8.5 lap games
FiveThirtyEight Predictions: Playoffs insured, 1% West, <1% Finals
Projected seeding WL: 4-4; 45-27 (fourth in the west)
COVID-19: Rudy Gobert (cleared), Donovan Mitchell (cleared)
As you probably already know, it was the Jazz that sustained the first publicly confirmed coronavirus case in the NBA, with Gobert contracting the virus sometime in late February or early March and testing positive on March 11. Mitchell also tested positive, although no one else in the Utah tour group did. Mitchell’s positive test exacerbated the tension between the two pillars of the Utah franchise, according to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon, although Mitchell has said that “right now” everything is fine between the two stars. In addition to that tension, the Jazz will also have to overcome the absence of Bojan Bogdanović, who is out for the restart after undergoing surgery on his wrist. Utah had 7.3 points for every 100 better possessions with Bogdanović on the floor than off it this season, though it’s notable that not many of those minutes featured Royce O’Neale playing alongside the rest of the starters, which is a group that is likely We will do a lot to see in Orlando. As if all of that wasn’t enough for the Jazz to deal with, they also plan to be without Mike Conley at some point, and his wife will give birth to their third child in August.
Denver Nuggets
43-22, third in the west, 7 games back
FiveThirtyEight Predictions: Playoffs insured, 3% West, 1% Finals
Projected seeding WL: 5-3; 48-25 (third in the west)
COVID-19: Nikola Jokić (arrived in bubble), head coach Michael Malone (announced), unidentified member of the organization (announced)
Jokić lost between 20 and 25 pounds during the hiatus and now he looks surprisingly different. He also contracted coronavirus and was one of several players who did not initially travel with the Nuggets to Orlando. Denver currently ranks third in the West, and our projections keep the Nuggets holding that place, but our model doesn’t give them a chance to reach or win the Finals like other teams. There are several potential explanations for this, but the most notable is their lag point difference (plus-3.0 per game, sixth in the West), which they have surpassed by four wins so far.
