Of prevention
For months, the general public and medical experts alike have thought of COVID-19 as a respiratory illness that would cause an ebb and flow of infections as the seasons change. But earlier this week, a World Health Organization official said at a press conference that the line of thought is no longer entirely useful.
“People are still thinking about the seasons. What we all need to understand is that this is a new virus and it behaves differently, “Margaret Harris, MD, told reporters in a virtual briefing, by Reuters. “Summer is a problem. This virus likes all weather. “
While the second, third, and subsequent waves of the virus have been discussed, Dr. Harris urged people to think of COVID-19 as “a big wave.”
“It’s going to go up and down a little bit,” he said. “The best thing to do is flatten it and make it something that licks your feet. But right now, first, second, third wave, these things really don’t make sense and we’re not really defining it that way. “
Does that mean that COVID-19 is not seasonal?
In the spring, experts predicted that COVID-19 cases would slow down, only to rise again in the fall and winter. But experts recently told Prevention.com that the United States is still “Up to your knees” in the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic in July.
Beyond SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19, there are several other coronaviruses known to infect humans, including those that cause the common cold.
Many of these have a seasonal element, and that’s why experts thought SARS-CoV-2 would be similar, explains William Schaffner, MD, an infectious disease specialist and professor at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. “But that doesn’t seem to be the case because it’s spreading wildly in the summer,” he says.
Overall, most people have developed some level of immunity to other types of coronaviruses, which is one reason why they have seasonality, says infectious disease expert Amesh A. Adalja, MD, principal investigator for the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “When it is hotter and more humid outside, there is a decrease in surface transmission. The virus finds that it is much less likely to find someone new to infect, “he explains. “But with COVID-19, there is so much community spread and so little immunity that the virus has no problem finding new people to infect.”
But that does not mean that COVID-19 will not get more complicated in the fall and winter.
“We will certainly have influenza to confuse the situation,” says Dr. Schaffner. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), flu activity tends to increase in October and peaks between December and February in the US, sometimes lasting until May.
If COVID-19 cases continue to rise as the flu circulates, it can tax the medical system and even confuse providers. “The flu and COVID-19 have very similar symptoms,” says Dr. Schaffner. “Doctors will have a hard time distinguishing between the two.”
Fall and winter can also become a time of “accelerated transmission” for COVID-19 as people move indoors and get closer to one another, increasing the risk of the virus spreading, he says. Dr. Adalja.
“It makes it more difficult to distance yourself socially,” explains Richard Watkins, MD, an infectious disease physician and professor of internal medicine at Northeast Ohio Medical University. “This does not bode well, especially with the amount of COVID-19 that is spreading now because people are theoretically more dispersed doing things outside.”
Right now, there are many unknowns with fall and winter. “We will only know when we get there,” says Dr. Adalja. “There is a great possibility that we will have to deal with more cases.”
That’s why experts emphasize the importance of receiving the flu shot once it’s available, usually in late August and early September. The vaccine will not protect you against COVID-19, but it can help protect you against the flu. “The last thing anyone needs is to get the flu and COVID-19 at the same time,” says Dr. Watkins.
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