Collectively, the film industry has several pressing questions in mind in the coronavirus era, but one of the most important is: when will theaters reopen on a significant scale in the United States?
Even though movies like it Beginning and Mulan still slated to open in theaters next month, an analyst believes national theaters may not reopen until mid 2021.
The Hollywood Reporter brings news that Doug Creutz, an analyst at a leading research company called Cowen, has some stark predictions for the future of the entertainment industry. “We had previously assumed that the spread of COVID-19 would stop relatively, with social distancing requirements significantly decreased in late 2020,” Creutz writes. “We have now extended that timeline until at least mid-2021; the situation is still very fluid and we do not rule out the possibility that the impact could last even longer. “
Please note that this is only a person’s guess. But before you fill up Lebowski About him (“Yeah, well, you know, that’s your opinion, man”), I know this guy has been in the analytics game at this company for almost twenty years. Obviously we are all in unprecedented territory here, but as coronavirus cases continue to rise in places like Florida and California, the likelihood that Cruetz’s prediction will come true seems increasingly likely.
Creutz says he doesn’t expect movies to be released in fiscal year 2020, which ends at different times for different companies (example: ends in September for Disney). “We now expect national cinemas to be largely closed until mid-2021,” he writes, “in part because we don’t think the studios are interested in releasing their largest films in a limited capacity footprint.”
If you’re right, the effect on the theatrical landscape could be catastrophic. I can’t imagine that independent theaters can hold out that long, considering that many, if not all, of them have already been seriously deprived of money after a few months of being closed due to the pandemic. AMC, the country’s largest network, recently signed an agreement that would stretch its debts to a point that will keep them afloat throughout 2021. If this prediction is true, could AMC be our only cinema option for this coming year?
Meanwhile, Creutz also predicts that on the theme park side, Disney won’t return to the level of profitability it experienced in 2019 until 2025. Not great, Bob.
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