(Reuters) – Politicians, drugmakers and regulators around the world offer conflicting views on whether a COVID-19 vaccine will be ready. Much depends on what ‘ready’ means and for what group of people. Some important questions about the timeline are:
FILE PHOTO: A woman holding a small bottle labeled “Vaccine COVID-19” and a medical syringe in this illustration April 10, 2020. REUTERS / Dado Ruvic / Illustration /
WHEN DO WE WORK A VACCINE WORK?
More than half a dozen drugmakers around the world are conducting advanced clinical trials, each with tens of thousands of participants, and several expect to know if their COVID-19 vaccines are working and safe by the end of this year.
The most optimistic timeline comes from AstraZeneca Plc (AZN.L), which is conducting a study in Britain that says it could have been completed as early as August.
Dr Anthony Fauci, the top expert on the American infectious disease, told Reuters last week that a trial by Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) could produce decisive results through November or December. Others will come later, some much later.
Some experts are skeptical that the trials, which should study potential side effects on different types of people, can be completed so quickly. Peter Hotez, the dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Texas, says gathering enough data to prove a vaccine is safe for the world could take until mid-2021.
WHEN DO YOU WANT TO COMPLAIN THE FIRST SHOTS?
Several drug manufacturers are building production capacity so that they can start production as soon as vaccines are approved by regulators. Some efforts are backed by a US government program called ‘Operation Warp Speed’.
Fauci told Reuters he expects to receive “tens of millions” of doses by early 2021, and that there could be more than a billion by the end of the year. This contrasts with more optimistic support from US President Donald Trump, who said a fax machine could be ready for the November 3 presidential election, although he did not define it.
Several companies, including Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Pfizer Inc. (PFE.N), say they expect to make more than 1 billion doses each year. That could mean several billion available by the end of 2021.
WHEN CAN I GET THIS?
Initial deliveries later this year as early next would likely go to those in rich nations who are considered by governments to work in essential industries or who are at greatest risk of the virus. That is likely to include people with other problems such as diabetes, health care workers, and members of the military.
Countries including Canada, Japan, Britain and the United States have closed deals that put their citizens first in line for inoculations, as they will be widely available in 2021.
Most vaccines are tested as two shots given a month apart, and provide full power protection only after the second shot is administered.
WHEN DO YOU WANT TO INTRODUCE THE WORLD?
The waiting time for COVID-19 vaccines is likely to be longer for people in developing countries who do not have early offers. Some may struggle to pay for faxes that can cost up to $ 40 per person, Hotez said.
“I’m worried that vaccines against Operation Warp Speed will not reach developing countries any time soon,” Hotez said.
Gavi, a vaccine alliance for developing countries, aims to secure 2 billion doses of vaccine by 2021, enough to inoculate the most vulnerable 20% of the population in poorer countries. Several manufacturers, including the Serum Institute of India, prepared themselves to produce for poor and middle-income countries.
DO I WANT TO BE ABLE TO GET A SUN VACCINE?
The Chinese government has allowed some experimental vaccines to be used in selected patients outside of clinical trials, making it the first country to have authorized vaccines for wider use.
But they will probably not have time available in the West. Domestic regulators would have to approve them, and clinical trials by Chinese companies outside China are still ongoing.
WHAT ABOUT RUSSIA?
President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia has become the first country in the world to be licensed for a COVID-19 vaccine after less than two months of human testing.
The vaccine has yet to complete definitive research, raising concerns among some experts about the speed of its approval. Still, Russian business conglomerate Sistema said it expects to put it into mass production by the end of the year.
Report by Carl O’Donnell, edited by Peter Henderson, Rosalba O’Brienand Nick Zieminski
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