TThe world will be watching the US presidential election on Tuesday, November 3, but just 24 hours later it is another hugely important news event when the US will formally abandon the Paris climate deal.
The Trump administration launched the withdrawal with a letter to the UN and, in a coincidence of time, the United States will leave the day after the elections, joining Iran and Turkey as the only major countries not participating in the agreement.
What is the Paris climate agreement?
After decades of negotiations, the world’s 197 nations agreed to voluntarily reduce the heat-trapping pollution that is causing the climate crisis. Only a few have not ratified the agreement.
Many see it as the minimum effort the world needs to cut emissions, but it still took a great diplomatic effort to close the deal.
It met in Paris in 2015, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The United States’ negotiating team, including then-Secretary of State John Kerry, was quick to try to test the Republican-proof deal.
President Obama, who was part of the 11-hour efforts calling on other world leaders to unite, said in his speech “we knew the moment”, calling it a turning point, although he acknowledged that more would have to be done.
Obama: climate change from the Paris climate agreement to the world
The official goal of the deal is to prevent the world from becoming 2C hotter than before industrialization. But his ambition is to limit warming to 1.5C, the best case scenario that scientists see out of reach.
Each country agreed to set its own goals and report on progress.
So is the deal working?
Some achievements have been made in reducing emissions, but the work that countries have done so far is not enough to limit the temperature rise to 2 ° C. The world is already about 1C warmer than the pre-industrial period.
Despite the Paris deal, it’s on its way to getting hotter in 3C. Humans are already suffering what they have done to alter the climate. And even more warming will lead to more intense heat waves, a faster rise in sea level that will flood major cities, and more extreme weather disasters that will affect government responses.
What will happen if Donald Trump is reelected?
Trump held a press conference in the White House Rose Garden in June 2017 when he promised to exit the deal, saying it was unfair to the US, that he would leave and then start negotiations to re-enter or a new agreement “on terms that are fair to the United States.”
United States to withdraw from Paris deal, Trump announces
“I was chosen to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris,” he said (the mayor of Pittsburgh responded by saying that the city was with Paris).
However, Trump was unable to abandon the deal immediately; It can only do so after the November elections, at a whim of time.
So on November 4, 2019, the U.S. began the one-year process to withdraw from the deal, sending the United Nations a notification that it would formally withdraw on November 4, 2020.
What will the world be like if humanity fails and warming rises beyond 2C?
In just a warmer 2C world, based on an analysis of 70 peer-reviewed studies by Carbon Brief:
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The seas could rise an average of 56 cm, or almost 2 feet.
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30 million people in coastal areas could be flooded each year by 2055.
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37% of the population could face a strong heat wave at least every five years.
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388 million people could be exposed to water scarcity and 195 million to severe drought.
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Corn crop yields could drop 9% by 2100.
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Global GDP per capita could fall 13% by 2100.
Has the Trump administration tried to tackle the climate crisis?
The short answer is no.
For the past four years, the Trump administration has undermined international climate efforts by aggressively supporting fossil fuels. Nationwide, Trump has essentially rescinded or weakened all major regulations that were meant to encourage a shift from oil, gas, and coal to cleaner energy sources. It has removed Obama-era rules that require electricity and low-carbon cars. It has expanded drilling and mining opportunities.
What will happen if Trump wins reelection?
With another four years as president, Trump could block those changes, further delaying action at a time when scientists say it is urgently needed.
The United States promised to reduce emissions from 26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025. The reductions were to be just the beginning of the United States’ efforts.
Depending on how deeply the economy is affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, the United States could see its emissions fall 20% to 27% below 2005 levels by 2025, according to an analysis by economic firm Rhodium. Group. While the US could technically achieve what it promised, those cuts are not enough to stop significant global warming. If all countries made efforts on par with the U.S. targets, the world would still heat 3C or 4C, according to an independent analysis by the Climate Action Tracker.
Even without the US government, the electricity sector has moved away from coal and has turned to cheaper natural gas and renewable energy, contributing to the drop. But reductions beyond what Rhodium projects would likely require new government rules and incentives.
What will happen if Joe Biden is chosen?
Biden would move immediately to rejoin the Paris agreement, which would take about 30 days. The former vice president has outlined an ambitious climate plan, but most require congressional approval. His proposal will be almost impossible to implement if Democrats don’t take control of the Senate. It will be difficult to pass meaningful climate legislation, even if Democrats have a majority in the House and the Senate and Biden are in the White House.
Biden has said he would put plans in place to cut U.S. emissions to net zero by 2050, which is on par with what scientists say every nation in the world must do to avoid the worst of the climate crisis.
He wants the electricity system to be carbon-free by 2035. He says he would invest $ 2 trillion in clean energy infrastructure and other climate measures, spending as much as possible in his first four years in office. The alleged Democratic candidate would decarbonize buildings, invest in high-speed trains and try to make the United States the leading producer of electric vehicles.
What is at stake for the world if the United States leaves?
If Donald Trump is reelected and the U.S. remains out of the Paris agreement, other nations may be less likely to take aggressive climate action. The United States is the largest historical contributor to climate change, despite having only 4% of the world population.
China is the largest emitter of current. It is dramatically slowing the growth of its domestic emissions, although it is also financing new coal plants in developing countries.
With the United States out of the question, China could have more geopolitical influence, even in climate negotiations. It could also benefit enormously from clean energy manufacturing, particularly if the US remains behind.
Even if the US national government is not active in climate efforts, the US eco-minded states and localities would probably come together to continue to promise action to the world.
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