What the Rangers are (likely) getting in Alexis Lafreniere

If 2020 has proved anything, then it is that nothing should be taken as applicable. Rangers general manager Jeff Gorton would not verbally promise last night to take projected top pick Alexis Lafreniere, and with two months until the draft, he would not be doing his job if he did not do his due diligence on other players and possible trading options.

But it would be one of the most shocking moments in the history of the concept if the Rangers first passed the productive wing game on October 9th.

The last general choice to come from Rimouski Oceanic was Sidney Crosby in 2005. As such, comparisons between him and Lafreniere are inexcusable. Any discussion about Lafreniere that coincides with Crosby’s career should be removed and scrutinized. However, there are similarities in playing style reference.

Like Crosby, the biggest asset of Lafreniere’s brains. He thinks of the ice on an elite level. Hockey remains a very rigid, structured game, but coaches are gradually abandoning more unorthodox approaches and roaming position, especially for an incredibly cerebral player who can be trusted to make his own judgments, such as Lafreniere. The result is a left winger who in many ways serves as a pseudo-center, who – once the faceoff occurs – dictates the game from the outside and often cuts from the inside to take over more responsibility left to the pivot then the winger.

Lafreniere’s vision and sense of hockey are elite. These are broad – if not vague – terms, so let’s break down several examples of what that means in his case.

He typically offers no outlet support or flies the zone like wingers usually do during breakouts. After all, he comes right back to collect the puck and serves as a point guard.

And look at that exact ability. The average player pushing dishes across the neutral zone as the middle lane goes through the sticks of opposition is typically the source of nightmares for a coach, and Lafreniere will have to push a bit higher against higher levels of competition. However, he is one of the few players who can get away with it, as he has the rare ability to read the ice and his hands to thread needles.

He will choose a defense separately to also set up high-percentage shots in the offensive zone. Here’s an example of him making a play about the slot line, which I’m sure makes Steve Valiquette happy.

These kinds of plays would be encouraging for an average viewer, but for Lafreniere it’s the boring part. The thing about NHL players is that they are all pretty good. What I mean by that is that even the most mediocre NHL players can stand in a practice lane and run goals with jaw-dropping precision. What makes the elite playmakers elite is their ability to make plays move and disguise their intentions.

In this example, it is not enough to say that Lafreniere is going through the puck accurately; what makes the score chance is that he keeps his feet moving and can make those plays while doing this. He does not lose speed as he changes his body position, both in terms of his skating and the speed at which he comes from this pace.

His specialty is deception. Like a pitcher who has the same release on a fastball and interchange, there is no “tell” in his game. His body movements are so fast and efficient, he apparently has eyes in the back of his head, which is a disastrous combination for defending. The constant movement means that new routes across the ice are open, and he has the vision to see them out of the corner of his eye and hands to then complete the pass before the defense can read and adjust the scene (# 11 in these clips).

His stick treatment adds yet another dimension. His ability to anticipate openings combined with unbelievable shifts means he can expose defenders who take bad corners in defense or who mistime try to defend him aggressively.

Can he, as a scorer, keep up with the likes of Auston Matthews and Steven Stamkos? By long to not. Is he nonetheless a player who could score 30-plus in his prime? Absolutely. Lafreniere will not rip blistering shots past goals. Yet his score comes in several ways.

He has enough shooting control to keep the opposition honest from the top of the rounds. Like Crosby, what he lacks in speed in his shot, he makes up for with the same deception and precision. At one moment he casually hangs on to the puck, and at the next he flies with his wrists effortlessly and pushes the top plank before anyone can react. He uses the same types of body pockets on his pass to open lanes for him to shoot the puck or move into shooting positions.

The last thing I will highlight is Lafreniere’s move of the puck. For all the highlight play of the heights, Lafreniere often gets on the scoresheet by finishing in the right place at the right time to not. What seem like easy goals are just such because of the thinking and effort he put into when the puck arrived. He is not afraid of the middle of the ice and he will drive to the net and fight through the traffic to get into scoring positions and find loose pucks around the cripple. That he is a skill player does not just mean a “perimeter” or “east-west” player.

My friend Jesse Marshall from The Athletic highlighted one great example of this.

Here are two more of my own examples.

In both clips, the puck is on the opposite side of the offensive zone and the play seems seemingly innocent, with no apparent danger. But Lafreniere keeps his feet on the move, anticipates a vulnerability that develops in the lock, and loses his husband.

When I compare Lafreniere stylistically to Crosby, what I mean is the variety of her offensive games. Think about what Crosby’s real physical strengths are. Does he have a brilliant shot, like Alex Ovechkin or Matthews? No. Is he an elite skater, like McDavid or MacKinnon? No. Does he have overwhelming power and strength like Gordie Howe or Jaromir Jagr? Not at all.

Crosby’s strength is that everything is a strength and that he has the brain to make the most of each. The same is generally true for Lafreniere. Some players are dominant because they have a few go-to moves that make the opposition powerless to stop. In Lafreniere’s case, it is that he can defeat you in so many different ways. He controls the pace of the game with the puck on his stick. He makes incredible plays in space, and if there is no space, he will find a way to make it. Once he moves the puck, he keeps his feet in motion and finds the next place to contribute. He’s never out of the play and he’s always a threat, regardless of the situation.

With all that said, what are Lafreniere’s perceived weaknesses? In answering this question, one must first understand that we are talking relatively. Compared to the average NHLer, Lafreniere is good at everything. Each critique of his game is relative to the expectations of a first-overall pick.

Ice skating is the ‘worst’ part of his game. His agility is pretty good, but he lacks explosiveness. It was a legitimate issue a year or two ago. He has since improved in that regard to the point that it is now averaged at least by NHL standards. He developed credible divorce rates at junior level, but will that stop in the NHL? Not likely, although he is still just 18 years old and could improve a lot. It’s not a hindrance, but ice skating is probably the best reason why Lafreniere did not reach the tier of generational perspectives like Crosby or McDavid were at the same age.

I also heard some criticisms about his defensive game. I do not know if I buy that personally. Like most teenagers in juniors, he has work to do and – against lower levels of competition – his individual abilities can probably give him some impetus for tactical mistakes.

His effort cannot be condemned. He checks with enthusiasm and he makes a lot of effort to pick up passes. The same instincts that lead to him being offended also serve him well in anticipating what defensive defense will do. He gets his stick in jobs and disrupts plays.

While I have no doubt that some will stereotype him as “soft”, this is actually not the case at all. Lafreniere is as physical as he needs to be to be effective. As mentioned earlier, he will ride the middle lane on offense and fight for pucks around the cripple. At the World Juniors, he set the pace vs USA in their group stage match with some pretty big hits.

Maybe it won’t show right away when he moves from dominant juniors to playing in the NHL, but because he matures, I believe he will become a 200-footer who could possibly even contribute to the penalty kill and be deployed to defend leads.

Lafreniere probably falls for Crosby and McDavid as certain Hall-of-Famers before they even reached the NHL, but he’s one tier below that. Sure and demonstrable above both Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko in last year’s draft, and that’s no criticism of those two. Lafreniere is the best player since Canadian Juniors to come through McDavid, and if there is any concern about the level of competition, just look at his 10 points in five World Juniors games for Canada this past Winter; good enough to lead the entire tournament by points-per-game. If Lafreniere develops as expected – and there is little reason to doubt he will – the Rangers will have a legitimate superstar winger who can challenge for individual distinctions and be the best forward at a perennial Stanley Cup- charger.

That ability is the reason Lafreniere is the top player on every running track, and it’s the reason the Rangers, even as piled up as they are on the wing, and as desperate as they are for centers and defenders, will take him in any ridiculous scenario. without the slightest hesitation.