Fears of a regional war between Russia and Turkey are growing as fierce fighting continues between the broken rivals Azerbaijan and Armenia over the broken territory.
Dozens of fighters have been killed and hundreds injured since Sunday’s clashes, according to former Soviet republics.
On Tuesday, the two accused each other of firing directly into each other’s territory outside the conflict zone, as civilian deaths increased and fighting continued on the third day.
As the violence escalates, NBC News looks at the key players and what’s behind the latest fight.
What is Nagorno-Karabakh?
At the center of the conflict is Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous area slightly larger than Rhode Island. It is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but has been under Armenian control since the early 1990s.
Part of the allotment to Azerbaijan during the Soviet era was fought by its ethnic Armenian majority. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s and the war resulted in Nagorno-Karabakh attempting to declare independence.
About 30,000 people died in the conflict, and as many as 1 million were displaced before the 1994 ceasefire. Since then, Nagorno-Karabakh has been a broken territory inside Azerbaijan.
Nagorno-Karabakh has local leadership, but the region, home to about 150,000 people, is dependent on Armenia for financial assistance.
There has been little progress in the long-running negotiations mediated by Russia, the United States and France, and there have been periodic clashes on the region’s borders.
Why is the fight going on now?
Tensions between the two sides escalated during the summer, resulting in a deadly clash in July that led to Sunday’s feud.
Kevrk Oskani, a political science research fellow at the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom, said the growth in July was a major setback for Azerbaijan, which lost a high-profile general in the war.
Sunday’s clash could be an attempt to save Azerbaijan’s face, Oskani said.
But the latest start to the weekend fight is behind centuries of conflict.
The Ossetians said the Armenians see Nagorno-Karabakh as the province of Artesakh in their ancient state.
Meanwhile, the region has a central cultural significance for the Azeri, who discovered Shusha in the modern-day Nagorno-Karabakh in the 18th century Karabakh Khanate.
Religion is propagated for propaganda purposes by both parties, both in Christian-majority Armenia and predominantly Muslim Azerbaijan, Oscania said, adding that the conflict is almost entirely about competing for secular nationalism on both sides.
“On the Armenian side, you often hear the argument that this is a battle of life and death, if their side is lost, it means that the Karabakh Armenians are destroyed, and possibly the Armenians themselves,” he wrote in a letter. Email. “On the Azerbaijani side, people understand the importance of Karabakh in their sense of what it means to be Azerbaijani.”
What is the role of Turkey?
Turkey has cultural, economic and political ties with Azerbaijan, and both countries also held large-scale military exercises in July and August Gust.
Turkey’s powerful president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said on Monday that his country would “stand by the brotherhood of Azerbaijan with all its resources and heart.”
Turkey’s ally Turkey is trying to advance domestic legitimacy by supporting ally Azerbaijan, Russia and Eurasia program at the London think-tank Chatham House in London, an email said.
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“It has war experience in some of the most recent regional theaters, and also has a defense industry for new markets,” Browser said.
Armenian Prime Minister Pashinya has called on the international community Prevent any possible interference by Turkey, Which he said would destabilize the region.
In what could be a major trend of violence on Tuesday, Armenia has alleged that the pilot of one of its planes was shot down by a Turkish fighter jet, but Ankara has denied any involvement.
Armenian officials have accused Turkey, a member of NATO, and Syria of supplying Azerbaijan with fighters and weapons. Both Azerbaijan and Turkey deny it.
Turkey is in a bitter dispute with Armenia over the massacre of 1.5 million ethnic Armenians by the Ottoman Empire, centered in present-day Turkey, in the early 20th century. The Turkish government has vehemently denied that the killing was a genocide.
Who is involved?
Russia has been the most active international player and key mediator in the conflict.
Moscow is trying to maintain good relations with both sides of the conflict and increase its influence in the region, Oscani said. The Kremlin also does not want to control tensions and draw outside forces – especially Turkey, he added.
When the U.S. One of the mediators in the conflict, Nagorno-Karabakh, has not been prioritized by Washington since 2001, Browser said.
The recent blaze has caught the attention of the U.S., however, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urging both sides to stop the violence on Tuesday.
Reality TV star Kim Kardashian West, who is of Armenian descent, also commented, “Diplomatic measures to prevent unnecessary growth and tragedy.” In a series of tweets Sunday called on Azerbaijan to “stop all aggressive use of force.”
What’s next
Experts, including Bros., say the worst case scenario is the worst war involving Russia and Turkey.
The conflict could destabilize the South Caucasus region – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia – which serve as corridors for pipelines to transport oil and gas to world markets.
But Browser and Oskania said the pipelines are not a primary consideration, although they could happen if the conflict escalates.
“Oil and gas pipelines run very close to the existing front line. In fact, a few dozen kilometers, “Oscanian said.
The Associated Press contributes to this report.
