What if the studio decides they don’t need movie theaters?

In the normal year, major movies are not released on Labor Day weekends, as it is too late to compete for the summer prize and early for the awards season. But with the re-opening of many theaters across the nation, this Labor Day will be defined by the premieres of two big movies, which also present thorns along the way: together, they can decide which movies we want, but how we will see them. . For the rest of this year and maybe even longer. One, Disney Mulan, More than five months after the originally scheduled opening in theaters, on September 4, the U.S. Will bypass movie houses and log on to Disney +. Others, Warner Bros. Postponed by Christopher Nolan, Tenet (September opening September), bet on the big screen.

For movie studios, it’s an intense moment of decision. With a huge backlog of films awaiting release and production resumption or others starting, Mulan And Tenet This raises the question: does the year of films include leaving home? If Mulan Underperforms, theaters will live to fight the next day. Even if Mulan Is a smash and Tenet Financially boring or, worse, producing headlines about theater-based viral clusters from now on, it’s hard to imagine a regular theatergoing – or major release – resuming before the arrival of the new year, vaccines, or both.

On paper, Mulan Strong and safe, feels like a bet. Some 2020 movies scheduled for wider release have already gone streaming – going to rude uptoz King of Staten Island Premiered on VOD, Apple bought the Tom Hanks WWII play Greyhound, And Disney ones Hamilton Disney + ‘s decision, which no doubt increased its customer base, is now an impressive 60.5 million. And Sundance hits Palm Springs, Which Neon and Hulu paid over $ 17 million to acquire, Hulu became the only release this summer. Also Mulan Different – it’s priced at 200 200 million, and the company’s choice to release it via Disney + means nothing is on the table. The ticket price tag of. 29.99 (for which you will “own” the movie as long as you are a customer) is more than a movie ticket, but the families who may have gone to see it together have no idea. And it doesn’t have to share revenue with theaters, so Disney needs to sell far fewer virtual tickets to make a profit. If Mulan Works, not a great leap in the imagination of Warner, who started HBO Max so poorly that the executive-suite program quickly followed, trying to accelerate his service by using it to debut Wonder Woman 1984 (Scheduled to be released on October 2) or Dune (December 18). For that matter, why not follow Disney Mulan With Black widow (Because of November 6, it’s the movie behind which Marvel’s three-year schedule is stuck) or Pixar The soul (November 20)?

There is a reason Tenet. Expectations of Movies That Have Tested Theater B Office X Fees So Far – New mutants, An X-Men movie has been out for two years already, and Unhinged, Russell Crow Road-Rage Thriller, acquired by the latest distributor Sustlice – could not be lower. But for months, Nolan’s movie, which should be seen as the big screen after the epidemic, has been the talk of the town, and with the existence of theaters, the studio has apparently decided that Post The aftermath of the epidemic is negotiable. (“Cross your fingers and hope people across the country don’t get sick with strangers for two hours with chaos” sounds more like a bottom-up prayer than a rational plan; one expert likened it to a Russian spin.) If Tenet Well done – admitting that most cities are forcing capacity cuts for theaters – it may be a tiff enough to postpone the studio’s decision to stream their biggest movies, many of which will hold back until a full theater release is possible. Will continue.

What is happening with Warner Bros. is already there. ‘Musical In heights And Godzilla V. Kong, Of Universal Fast and Furious 9 And Halloween Kills, And Paramounts A Quiet Place Part II And Top Gun: Maverick, All of which are trying to make the epidemic a complete jump. Now no one is scheduled until early spring 2021. It is the equivalent of rich people who have their cars full and their second home – when their second home is the “future” – is unloaded near their home when things start to look bad. It was, in a way, a vote of confidence in theaters, in a statement that waiting for it could be more lucrative than abandoning a decades-old cultural habit – and a business model.

But for how long? We are already seeing signs of how studios are easily set up to leave theaters. One of the last films inherited from Disney, Fox, is reported to be close to sale, Woman in the window, Netflix. Meanwhile, struggling Paramount (its market share was only 5 percent in 2019), which sold Aaron Sorkin Trial 7 of Chicago, Also At Netflix, it is close to selling its Tom Clancy adaptation for over 50 million Without remorse Made on Amazon and decided that his post-revelation would come Love and monsters, Which was to open next February, will go straight to VOD this October.

Probably even in the best of circumstances, this fall slate of big movies in theaters will still be thinner than usual. And what is currently happening cannot be reversed by the huge paddime shift. For over a century, studios have been at the center of Hollywood Hollywood, and many times some of them have changed ownership, their names being recognizable longer than we live. But now, with the exception of the always impressive Disney, only a handful remain – Warner, Universal, Sony and Paramount. And it’s shockingly easy to imagine a world in which they are no longer Hollywood’s only creative engine, but suppliers of content to new product / distribution players: Netflix, Amazon and Apple Pal. Those companies are becoming the driving force behind older studio-owned streaming services (Disney’s Hulu and Disney +, Werner’s HBO Max, Universal’s Peacock, and CBS All Access Access, which shares the owner with Paramount). See and where we will see it. And, more often than not, he is at home, competing with what is known as TV.

But the old habit dies hard, and the studio, after missing the summer, is now trying to open up films to qualify for the awards – a strategy that could involve nurturing movies in certain locations for months, one opinion being that, This year, very difficult. The Academy M Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and most other industry-award groups have set a deadline of December 31 to February 28 (President’s Day weekend – it’s New Christmas). There is a clever way to buy time – although maybe not enough time. The Scar season is usually a moment for indie companies – both those studio-owned, such as Searchlight Pictures, Focus Features, and Sony Pictures Classics, and those who don’t, like the A24 and Neon – take out their very favorite ing furings. . But the four festivals (Venice, Telluride, Toronto, and New York) where the most promising “small” films of the year often start, reduce fielding – and, in many cases, virtual – with a few high-profile American and English-language movies this year. . Like their big budget counterparts, like Wes Anderson’s all-star comedian, many anticipated indies French dispatch, Things have simply been put on ice until things change. The same If They change, as educated, affluent, older audiences are attracted to India, exactly the same kind of people are happy to stay at home until the movie comes out.

The most surprising thing about this moment is the absence of a master (or any) plan. To resume production, an extended protocol is being developed for everyone from Netflix plays Jurassic World: Dominance, Which sped up a 107-page health manual and an entire hotel rented out as safety-zone bubbles for its cast and crew. But the studio does not have detailed proposals on how to release the movies. They are just staring at the horizon of uncertainty and wishing “maybe things will get better” through an ever-changing date. Post-Tenet, Tough decisions about the October, October and November movies will need to be made quickly. As more films go into production and the pressure from that end of the pipeline increases, it will be easier for studios to tell theater owners, although there will be a lot of bigger films for them whenever the epidemic ends. Present their films in any way that feeds their audience (safely). It seems more urgent; Companies can’t just sit on invisible movies forever. Something has to be sacrificed: going to the movies or a movie. Pair no Mulan And Tenet Determines what determines.

* This article appears in the August 31, 2020 issue New York Magazine. Register now!