What does it mean for a virus to have “pandemic potential”?


Illustration for the article entitled Wait, are we going to have two pandemics?

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Headlines recently warned of a new flu virus with “pandemic potential,” based on a study virus in pig farms in China. There is not However, you need to start freaking out right away: While it’s always a safe assumption, there will be another pandemic somedayThis is not a cause for concern yet.

What did the study find?

The document is a report from a program that regularly tests pigs on farms to see if they have any interesting new viruses. Pigs, birds and humans can share influenza viruses, although in most cases a virus that specializes in one species will not infect another.

However, the strange thing about the flu is that its genes are like a deck of cards that can mix with other viruses. If an individual is infected with two different influenza viruses, a hybrid virus could result. Most viruses don’t do this, but the flu does. And when this happens, it often happens in pigs. If you want to know the details, there is a good explainer in SciTable.

According to the study, a virus they describe as “G4, EA, H1N1” has been circulating in pigs since at least 2016. It can infect humans, Not just pigs. Very few people are known to get it, and almost 10% of farm workers on certain farms have antibodies, which means they may have been infected inadvertently.

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What does it mean for a What virus has “pandemic potential”?

First, it is important to note that this virus has been around for some years and has no caused a COVID-19 style pandemic.

However, as virologist Angela Rasmussen explains in a Twitter threadG4 has a couple of characteristics that give it “pandemic potential”. It can easily enter human cells (some animal influenza viruses cannot). It can reproduce in human cells and create infectious particles. That may be transmissible from human to human, but we are still not completely sure. But crucially, we have no proof that the virus can seriously make people sick. If you get a virus but your health doesn’t suffer, it’s not a big problem, is it?

Until now, we are safe. But flu viruses like to mutate, sWest could be a problem Yes mutates take those few extra steps. Or like Rasmussen puts: “Yes, this virus could develop the ability to be an efficiently transmitted human-to-human pathogen.”

So how scared should we be?

This is what happens with the flu: There it is forever Another pandemic just around the corner, we just don’t know when it will come. I remember this happened in all biology classes when I was in school in early 2000s. The teacher would tell us about past flu pandemics, including that of 1918and point out: we are defeated.

You may recall that there was a pandemic flu strain in 2009. It was wrong! It is not a bad COVID-19, but many people got sick and many people died. Fortunately, CDC and its counterparts around the world came to an agreement fairly quickly, and things turned out well. One good thing about flu variability is that we already have a flu shot line that changes every year. So once scientists knew that 2009 H1N1 was going to be a problem, they got to work and we got vaccinated quickly.

Could this new virus be as bad as the 1918 flu? A manageable problem like 2009? Or worse? We don’t know ifis the first step in managing the pandemic he’s watching what viruses are out there. It’s not time for you and me to panic, but it’s a Good thing that virologists and epidemiologists know that this virus It is one Take a look at it.

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