About half of the National Association of Business Economists members expect that US gross domestic product – the broadest measure of the economy – will not return to its pre-pandemic level until 2022. A majority of those experts also say that the US labor market back will be until early February 2022 at the earliest.
Nearly 80% say there is a one-in-four chance of a double-dip recession – an economic downturn that begins to recover and gets even worse before fully recovering.
NABE’s findings are based on 235 responses to its August economic policy survey.
Washington has introduced an unusual incentive package in response to the pandemic recession. But economists are divided over the government’s actions: 40% think not enough has been done, while 37% think the answer was adequate. The rest think the government has done too much.
Although Congress finds it cannot agree on the next incentive package, more than half of the NABE economists still believe that supplementary unemployment insurance and the small business payment protection program should be extended. Most also believe that the next incentive package will be $ 1 trillion or more. The initial incentive agreement signed in March was $ 2 trillion.
All this economic turmoil is taking place in an election year. The majority of polled experts – 62% – said Democratic nominee and former vice president Joe Biden would be better off for U.S. economic growth than President Donald Trump.
One way or another, promoting defeat, economic recovery and health policy are the three main problems that economists see for the next administration.
Even though America’s shortage of balloon fat in these times of high government spending, most economists do not think it needs to be a concern at this time, because the stimulus is needed to get through the crisis in the first place.
