Biden’s campaign did not disclose the size of the ad purchase, saying it was part of a multi-state spend that was in the six figures. In a state as massive as Texas, Republicans called the purchase a ploy for the free media, and even Democrats say an ad purchase of that size won’t even affect it.
Still, Democrats pointed to the symbolic value of the move, a sign that Biden was indeed a surprising distance from Trump in the massive state that serves as the cornerstone of the Republican election coalition.
The RealClearPolitics poll average shows Biden and Trump at a standstill in Texas.
“He is sending a message,” said the chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, Gilberto Hinojosa. “The message is that the Biden campaign recognizes that Texas is a different state now, that they see it as a battleground and intend to make a play for Texas.”
Biden’s campaign previously told POLITICO that it viewed Texas and Georgia as “expansion targets” beyond the central states of the battlefield. In an interview Tuesday, Biden’s deputy chief of state Molly Ritner said that while in previous cycles Texas seemed to be out of the grasp of Democrats, the campaign for months has seen the state within its purview.
“For me, this is not just an opportunity for the Biden campaign, it is an opportunity to go on the offensive,” Rep Colin Allred said in an interview. The Dallas-area congressman said he has been pushing for the Biden campaign to play in Texas, noting that Democrats desperately need to take control of their House of Representatives if they want to have a seat at the table to draw maps of Congress that will be in effect for the next decade.
“They listen to me and are responsive,” Allred said.. “They are trying to figure out what they can do.”
Texas Republicans, and even some Democrats, see Biden’s announcement as a striking ruse, rather than a serious effort to compete against Trump in the lone star state.
“It is a fake $ 500,000 to see if the bear responds,” said Dave Carney, a senior advisor to Abbott. “It is a fundraising tool in my opinion.”
Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh made a similar argument.
“This is not a serious purchase and is only designed to trick CNN into writing a story and posting the ad for free. These are announcements that no one in these states will actually see, “said Murtaugh. “But we encourage Biden to spend money in states like Texas, which President Trump will surely earn, because it is money that he will not have to defend states like Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Nevada.”
Democrats, however, make a similar case; If Trump is forced to defend himself in Texas, less money is spent in key battlefield states like Wisconsin and Michigan.
The mere fact that the media is entertaining the idea that Biden could be competitive in traditionally red states like Texas and Georgia is a troubling sign for Trump, Democrats say.
“If Biden’s campaign game was not to move the electoral numbers but to generate earned media, I received bad news for the headline: It worked,” says Texas-based Democratic strategist Chris Lippincott. “The reason it worked is because Trump is in trouble in places where he shouldn’t be in trouble.” People think he is doing a bad job. “
However, the prospect of Biden pouring resources into Texas makes some Democrats freak out, evoking memories of Hillary Clinton’s attempts to hook states like Arizona in 2016 while skipping and ultimately losing Wisconsin to Trump.
“That was the problem with the Clinton campaign, his eyes went wide,” says Democratic strategist Pete Giangreco. “I don’t want to hear about expansion plans or this other crap. Eyes like a laser beam. What they should focus on is 270 [electoral votes]. It is not Joe Biden’s job to win the United States Senate and state legislatures. “
The campaign rejected the notion that an enlarged map would mean it is diverting its focus from the central states of the battlefield. They are pushing for as many avenues as possible for 270 electoral votes, Ritner said.
“We see an opening in Texas based on Trump’s mismanagement of this pandemic and voters in Texas sadly have to live day to day of what that means for their lives,” said Ritner. “That is the only goal: 270 in November.”
However, Republicans were not convinced of the chances of Democrats in Texas, even in the face of competitive polls and a coronavirus crisis that caused Abbott to backtrack on his policies.
“Biden is compelled by his party and the leftist movement to spend money here because they are dying to tell the Texas story in their narrative that they can turn this place to blue if they just throw enough money here,” said Jessica Colon, a Houston- Republican based strategist. “What people forget, or if you’ve never been to Texas, is that there is a lot of Texas. And falling in an urban area or two is not what Texas does. ”
Jeff Roe, who advised Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s reelection and presidential campaigns, said: “Biden is the same boxer in the shadows. They can do all the head forgeries they want, this race comes down to three states and everyone knows it. “
At this time, Roe said, he believes the three actual states to drop out of the election are Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin. He sees Georgia, Arizona, and Iowa as leaning toward Trump and Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota as mild Biden. Recent public polls show that Biden leads in all of those states.
One of the reasons for Biden’s relatively strong position in Texas is his ability to avoid holding public office that would inflame conservatives, said Carney, Abbott’s adviser.
For example, when Texas Senator John Cornyn released a recent reelection announcement that attacked one of his opponents, State Senator Royce West, for being too liberal, the Republican compared West to progressive Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee and two of Biden’s main opponents, Sen Bernie Sanders and Senator Elizabeth Warren. Biden was not in the ad.
“Biden is nowhere near Pelosi-Warren-Beto-AOC-crazy,” said Carney. “Biden is moving to the left. But people don’t know that. He is not out there saying all these things. He stays in the basement and sends out policy statements pointing to the far left, letting them know: ‘I am with you.’ But it’s not bothering people. “
Carney credited Biden for making a “well done” announcement.
“It’s calm. And that’s where its base is, ”he said.
But in the end, Carney said, that doesn’t win in a conservative state like Texas. “There is not much medium in Texas.”