When the coronavirus pandemic first came to the US earlier this year, some infectious disease experts hoped that COVID-19 would likely disappear in the summer, acting similar to the seasonal flu that is generally dissipates as the weather warms up. Even President Trump initially expressed optimism that warmer weather could eliminate the virus.
But COVID-19 is not the flu.
As July approaches, cases of the new virus are on the rise in states across the country, and health officials warn that the only way to slow the spread of the infection, at least until there is a vaccine, is to comply. with safety tips recommended by experts, such as social distancing and the use of a face mask.
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“The evidence so far suggests that the virus that causes COVID-19 can be transmitted in all kinds of weather,” Dr. William Schaffner, professor of medicine at Vanderbilt University and medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, told Fox (NFID). News by email.
“Regardless of the weather, the best way to protect yourself is to wash your hands frequently, stay home as advised, and practice social distancing (staying at least six feet away) and wearing a mask if you go out in public,” he added. . .
Dr. John Whyte, medical director of the health care website WebMD, also expressed doubts that the summer weather would eliminate the new virus.
“We originally thought that COVID-19 would act similar to the flu where there would be dissipation during warmer weather, like most respiratory viruses. Heat and humidity are not friends with respiratory viruses, “he also told Fox News by email. “However, we began to be skeptical of the flu comparison when we saw many cases in regions of the world that were warm / hot in March and April,” such as India, Australia, and Iran, to name a few.
“There are a few reasons why we probably still see a lot of cases. It may simply not be as affected by temperature as other coronaviruses. It may not be as seasonal as the flu. Furthermore, this virus has a high transmission rate, so even under less than favorable conditions it will still spread, “Whyte added, noting that continued spread” often depends on mitigation factors. “
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“As we experience fatigue in quarantine, people don’t practice as much physical distancing and wearing masks. Remember, we were seeing a decrease in cases, especially in hospitalizations, “Whyte noted.” There is concern that as we reopen, we have not continued with those public health strategies that we know are effective in reducing transmission. , the lack of immunity continues to make people susceptible. “
There are at least four pre-existing coronaviruses that are seasonal, but why exactly remains somewhat shrouded in mystery.
For example, the 2002-2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which claimed nearly 800 lives at the time, ended in the summer, but a 2004 report on the seasonality of SARS did not establish a clear reason why. was .
“Our understanding of the forces driving seasonal disappearance and recurrence of infectious diseases remains fragmented, limiting any prediction about whether or when SARS will reappear,” the authors wrote at the time. “It is true that most established respiratory pathogens in humans recur in winter, but a new appreciation of the high disease burden in tropical areas reinforces questions about explanations that rest only in cold air or low humidity.” .
More recently, a study published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal in May found that temperature does not have a clear impact on the spread of the coronavirus.
Researchers from the University of Toronto studied the 144 geopolitical areas worldwide where 10 or more cases of COVID-19 were documented before March 20, and found almost no links to epidemic growth based on latitude and temperature. . However, the researchers documented a strong association with slowing the spread of the virus and restrictions on mass gatherings, school closings and social estrangement, in line with what experts have emphasized for months.
“The evidence so far suggests that the virus that causes COVID-19 can be transmitted in all kinds of weather,” Dr. William Schaffner, professor of medicine at Vanderbilt University and medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, told Fox (NFID). News in a statement.
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“Many experts in the field expected the virus to act similarly to influenza, where in winter the virus shell is harder and more protective than in warmer weather,” Michael J. Urban, director of occupational therapy at the University of New Haven, told Fox News in an email. “I would be more interested to see how the virus responds in the southern and western parts of the country in late July to August, where heat and humidity tend to be at their highest point.”
“COVID-19 is still new,” Urban continued. “We have seen a modest slowdown in areas of the country where there are practices of social distancing and additional measures, however, other areas where the virus is still spreading, such as Florida, relate to the general behavior of people with regard to being more active. as schools end. Many of these regions have also received conflicting messages at this point about taking precautions. “
Echoing many other health experts, Urban implored Americans to fulfill “their civic duty to the nation simply by wearing a face mask” while they were out of their homes. He also mentioned practicing frequent hand washing, staying home when you feel sick, and getting tested for COVID-19 “if warranted and available.”
The World Health Organization (WHO) warned that warmer weather has no impact on COVID-19, noting that you can still contract the virus “no matter how sunny or hot the weather is.”
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Meanwhile, Dr. Anne Schuchat, deputy chief director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warned that Americans cannot depend on summer weather to eliminate the virus.
“We can affect it, but in terms of the weather or the season that helps us, I don’t think we can count on that,” he said in an interview Monday with the Journal of the American Medical Association.
Fox News’ Peter Aiken contributed to this story.
