A whole swath of Americans surprise retailers, manufacturers and analysts by spending at record levels at chains like Target, Walmart and Lowe’s.
Photographer: Jeenah Moon / Bloomberg
Photographer: Jeenah Moon / Bloomberg
The American consumer proves farther than predicted.
Conventional wisdom, which initially assumed that many American shoppers would save their wages and incentive funds until the pandemic subsided, has persisted. The largest U.S. retailers all reported sales in the last quarter that expectations blew.
From Wall Street to the retailers themselves to the manufacturers supplying them, it turned out that no one was ready for just how fierce demand would be of a consumer base going within stuts with nowhere to go.
Room for home improvement Home Depot Inc. en Lowe’s Cos., Saves everything Walmart Inc. and Target Corp., and of course online behemoth Amazon.com Inc. each beat the sales forecasts of analysts in the summer quarter – and with billions of dollars apiece. Companies that were quick to shut down more online outlets than already have apps installed for sidewalk pickup have done it particularly well, plus those who meet a dying American shopper who wants to spend.
Higher and higher
Major U.S. retailers beat net sales forecasts across the board
Source: Company reports
The “fatal mistake” of economists was that people would always keep their portfolios closed in difficult times, leading to calculations on consumer demand, said Doug Stephens, founder of Retail Prophet.
The recent space of robust retail services has shown the power of consumer sensitivity and adaptability. They also reinforce the extreme unpredictability of pandemic times.
Going forward, this past quarter casts doubt on how seriously anyone who claims to have a lecture on America’s shopping habits takes seriously, especially since Congress remains stalemate over additional incentives and millions still without work.
Big six
Craig Johnson, chairman of Customer Growth Partners, says the “big six” retailers are seeing record growth – Walmart, Amazon, Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s and Costco Wholesale Corp., which have not yet reported – all share some common traits. They have consistent growth of traffic, increasing store productivity, improved online platforms, a mix of discretionary and non-discretionary items and a clear understanding of the needs and preferences of their customers.
“On a dollar basis, households are saving $ 3.4 trillion, up from $ 2.2 trillion from last June, indicating that consumers still have a lot of dry powder waiting to be spent,” he said in an email. “Retail sales are also supported by the steep decline in travel, entertainment and restaurant spending.”
Lowe Chief Executive Officer Marvin Ellison has certainly seen that trend. When his company reported sales of the same store in the US at a blistering rate of 35.1%, he says he sees a behavioral change in consumers.
‘It’s a shift away from holidays, it’s a shift away from eating. It is a shift away from buying clothes. It is those dollars that you may have invested in things that you are now spending on your home and in some cases out of necessity such as trying to create a more functional environment, ”he said in an interview.
The government’s retail sales data underscore this adjustment. Sales at retailers, building materials companies and auto dealers account for larger shares of total retail purchases than they did in February, before the pandemic, while restaurants and clothing retailers represent less.
Shifting Retail Dynamics
Pandemic, lockdowns have prompted U.S. consumers to change spending habits
Source: Census Bureau, Bloomberg
Ellison even changes how he views his own home space. His daughter is an incoming college freshman, whose first few weeks of high school will consist of distance learning, so Ellison had to set up a subject classroom so she could work productively.
“Do we also see discretionary spending? Wis. We also see people getting new furniture, upgrading appliances and we see other things like new kitchens, new bathrooms, ”he said. ‘What surprised everyone was that we all spent more time at home than we have ever had in our lives. We are just looking for more things to do to make our homes functional. ”
Another potential sign that consumer spending went better than most feared: Even small businesses have been surprisingly resilient so far, and avoids the rise in permanent closures that many expected at the start of the Covid-19 crisis.
Industry losers
Those retailers that have not gone so well are the ones that are closely affiliated with the American mall, especially department stores and retailers focused on clothing. TJX Cos., The owner of the TJ Maxx and Marshalls chains, fell the most in more than four months on Wednesday after predicting that sales at open stores in the current quarter will drop as much as 20%, while Kohl’s Corp. declined on Tuesday as it became clear that the company was struggling to get sales back because shoppers were staying at home or flocking to e-commerce.
The question is whether these increased sales will continue after federal incentive checks come to an end. A consumer survey of analysts at Stifel found that three out of four Americans have already spent a fraction of their stimulus checks, and Walmart warned this week the effect was already clear. Target CEO Brian Cornell said he hopes there is a second round of federal incentives to put more money in consumers’ pockets.
“Ending improved benefits is undoubtedly a negative, because it will deprive many households of the extra money they have spent on the home,” said Neil Saunders, Managing Director of GlobalData Retail, in an email. “From our data, however, it is still clear that home remains a top priority for most consumers and that austerity cuts are more often focused on categories such as clothing. It is also true that by spending less on things like travel, petrol and food, ‘households have paid more money for other expenses, such as improving their homes.
“Analysis of the pandemic normally involves talking about victims in the retail trade,” he added. “As these results show, the crisis has produced both successes and failures.”
– With the help of Nic Querolo, Drew Hutchinson, Matthew Townsend, and Michael Sasso
.
