Why is Mr. Xi considering joining CPTPP?

Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks at APEC CEO 2020 Online Dialogue held in Malaysia on Nov. 19 – Photo: Reuters

The CPTPP is a variant of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) without the US.

The TPP is a beloved multilateral economic institution of the Obama administration, officially signed in 2016 and expected to come into force in 2018 with the goal of strengthening connections between allied countries and American partners in the United States. Asia Pacific region. However, President Donald Trump canceled as soon as he took office in early 2017.

Or RCEP, CPTPP is the next goal

As Trump prepares to end his term, Xi seizes this opportunity to create an image of China on the world stage as a country that supports multilateralism. Mr. Xi wanted to send the message that China supports multilateral international organizations to play an increasingly important role in world affairs and avoids introducing slogans similar to “America first.” “Make America Great Again” by Mr. Trump.

In the past two years, as the trade war between the United States and China has been tense and the Western world has begun to fear China’s ambitions, it has begun to regulate its political discourse, speaking less of it. strategic ambitions and the dream of “wrapping” the dream of reviving China’s glory as historically with promises in favor of multilateralism, criticizing trade protectionism and hegemony. The target of the criticism is none other than the United States.

However, the United States should blame itself by the administration of President Donald Trump for being overly protective of protectionism and frequently criticizing major trading partner countries for taking advantage of their bilateral trade relations with the United States.

This gave China an excuse to raise the flag of multilateral commercialism leadership. After China and Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand and 10 ASEAN countries signed the Regional Comprehensive Partnership Agreement (RCEP) on November 15, CPTPP became China’s next target. National.

However, Xi Jinping is right when he thinks that “in today’s world, where economic globalization has become an irreversible trend, no country can develop by shutting down.” “.

It is too clear about the role of international institutions in shaping the global economy, as well as in maintaining the growth of the Chinese economy in the near future and in meeting the 2049 goal of converting. In the world leader, China must become a rule-setting country in multilateral international institutions.

Global leadership ambitions

CPTPP can help China realize its ambition to move to a higher level in the global manufacturing value chain. Compared to the RCEP Agreement that China has signed with a third of the world’s population and 29% of the world’s GDP, the CPTPP is considered a smaller scale with 11 countries and the total GDP is only about 13% of the world economy. But the CPTPP, a new-generation free trade agreement (FTA), is superior to the RCEP when it comes to deeper reform commitments among member states.

China has reason to trust its leadership role. In economic terms, China is considered to be the most successful country in overcoming the COVID-19 epidemic among the world’s top 10 economies.

According to a Reuters poll based on 37 analysts published in late October 2020, China is the only major economy with growth in 2020, with 2.1% expected. Meanwhile, the US economy is forecast to have negative growth of -3.7%. Therefore, the relative scale of the Chinese economy compared to that of the US will shorten more quickly after 2020.

In his speech, Xi also stressed that China will increase its import of more high-quality goods and services.

However, other countries in the world may not be entirely happy with what Xi said. In recent months, China has used trade measures to limit imports from countries that require an independent investigation into the origin of the corona virus.

Australia’s agricultural products have been imposed tariffs of up to 80% after the Australia-China relationship deteriorated because Beijing was previously accused of not being transparent about COVID-19. China can use the trade card if countries are too dependent on Chinese exports.

The CPTPP is a multilateral trade agreement with much more demanding provisions on market opening and institutional reform than the RCEP. At present, China may not want to “sacrifice” so much for institutional reform.

Realistically, China will take many more years to successfully negotiate to join the CPTPP, but at least Xi Jinping wants to show the world that China wants to contribute to the multiple institutions. international method.