Who will win the elections on November 3?

In a few days we will know who the president of the United States is for the period 2021-2025. I hope so.

If the night of November 3 does not turn out to be a landslide, there will be litigation in the courts like the 2000 election, with Florida having to recount the votes and a few weeks later to obtain the result, with a supreme sentence. Cut.

The entire United States that year had to nervously wait, paying attention to the TV screen when votes had gaps or just footprints that counting staff had to light up, sometimes using magnifying glasses to hope to find the poster. of a voter who voted for Bush or Gore.

This year’s election, due to the Covid translation, most states allow voters to be elected early by mailing their ballots in the mail or by placing them in ballot boxes located in many locations.

Many California voters voted at polls located in public agencies such as the city hall, the county office.

Some other states, like Texas, Georgia, have a harder time finding ballot boxes, so voters mail their ballots or queue for hours to vote early.

As of Friday afternoon 10/30 California time, more than 85 million Americans have completed their citizenship duties, a record number in the snap election compared to the previous general election.

Due to the change in the voting method, this year’s vote count is complicated and there has been a dispute in court.

Trump’s campaign committee wants to count only votes received by local electoral bodies no later than November 3, not counting votes until after that date.

According to the latest Supreme Court decision, Pennsylvania will count votes postmarked 3/11 and received by 5 p.m. on Friday, November 6. As for the state of North Carolina, 9 days after Election Day, if the ballot is sent to the elections office, it still needs to be counted.

So it was expected that the results of this year’s elections will not be known on the night of November 3, but it will take many days later and it is most likely that there will be a dispute in court about how to count the votes.

The Supreme Court will likely have to consider lawsuits related to the counting of votes when the votes for Trump and Biden are not widely separated, within 0.5% or less.

If the situation in the United States is like it was earlier this year, when the economy is growing well, the fact that President Trump remains in Bach Oc for another term will not seem difficult. In the history of the election of American leaders, when the economy develops, the incumbent president or the ruling party will continue to win the trust of the people.

Now President Trump faces great challenges.

First of all because of the translation of Covid-19, the main cause that changed the United States and the world in 2020, and President Trump’s response shows the leadership that critics consider his weakness.

His supporters rejected the criticism and believed that he was the only one capable of making America great again.

Through many press meetings he showed that he was not mastering science, but he often spoke out against scientific explanations.

Take Hydrochloroquine, for example, a medicine that prevents malaria. Normally a person drinks the right amount is not harmful to health. The years that I lived in Africa I took this medicine regularly. Two years ago I returned to this area a few weeks ago, I also had to take medication while I was there.

Does hydrochloroquine prevent or cure Covid-19? It is a question that scientists, doctors must learn, investigate and give results. Since it is a new virus, all prevention can be tested to obtain data to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Some doctors have tried this drug with good results, but many other studies show that hydrochloroquine is not effective.

The treatment of a patient with Covid-19 or the search for a vaccine should be left to the experts for them to study and then publish or report to the president.

President Trump also claimed that bleach was also effective in treating Covid-19. If you look at experimental science, anyone can test this liquid with a certain dose to see how it reacts. That’s not what the president needs to say without the scientific data available.

President Trump used to say unscientific things just to hide the passivity of Covid-19 prevention. He lost the trust of many voters for such behavior.

Due to Covid-19, the US economy has been in a recession since March. The latest figures show that the US GDP increased 33.1% in the last quarter. That’s an encouraging sign for economic recovery, but it may be too late as 90 million voters have voted.

The history of US leadership elections over the past 40 years shows that when the economy develops, the incumbent president or ruling party will continue to earn the trust of the people.

President Jimmy Carter in 1980 was sent back to the garden due to the oil crisis, the economy crashed, the unemployment level was almost 7%. Then Americans had to queue to refuel and distribute bank loans to buy houses at almost 20%.

Defeating President Carter with a landslide victory, Ronald Reagan obtained 489 votes in the electoral college in 1980, a surprising result since pre-election polls showed that the two candidates were just shy of two. three points are equally good.

Four years later, Reagan won even more with 525 electoral college votes.

When Vice President George HW Bush (Sr.) ran for election in 1988, when the economy continued to grow, voters elected him president to allow Republicans to lead the United States for 12 consecutive years.

In 1991, President Bush achieved a military victory in Kuwait, when he brought in American troops to liberate the country from Iraqi occupation and eliminated the “Vietnam Syndrome” at the heart of the American people, the prestige of Bush. At that time he was very high among the people.

But a few months after the economic recession, the unemployment rate was higher than 7%, most of them promised not to raise taxes (Read my lips), so the people chose the Democratic candidate Bill Clinton.

During the 1992 presidential election, Bill Clinton was accused of all kinds of sexual flirting, but voters ignored him and elected him to lead the United States for two terms.

President George W. Bush (Con) and President Barack Obama are also serving two terms.

During the 2016 election, candidate Donald Trump also faced accusations of sexually manipulating, harassing women, doing illegal business, but still won the election.

Without Covid-19, President Trump would have easily won a second term because after three years under his leadership the American economy was growing, the unemployment rate was just over 3%.

Now the situation becomes more complicated and difficult. Economic stagnation, the number of unemployed is 10% higher and the measures against Covid-19 are ineffective because the number of infected is close to 9 million with 230 thousand deaths and has not stopped increasing.

Many of the latest polls released in recent days show former Vice President Biden surpassing President Trump nationwide, according to Real Clear Politics, Biden 51.3%, Trump 43.6%.

Surveys from various sources showed the following results:

Emerson University: Biden 50, Trump 45

Rasmussen Reports: Trump 48, Biden 47

Economist / YouGov: Biden 54, Trump 43

Reuters / Ipsos: Biden 52, Trump 42

In the battlefield states:

Wisconsin: Biden 50.3, Trump 43.9

Michigan: Biden 50.6, Trump 42.4

North Carolina: Trump 48.4, Biden 47.7

Pennsylvania: Biden 49.5, Trump 46

Florida: Biden 48.3, Trump 46.9

Arizona: Biden 47.8, Trump 46.5

Ohio: Trump 46.8, Biden 46.2

Georgia: Biden 47.7, Trump 47.3

Texas: Trump 48, Biden 45.7

According to the science of statistical probability, the confidence in the test results is 95%, which means that there is a 5% probability that the test result is false and the margin of error is usually plus minus 3 points.

There are predictions in Europe that Trump still has a chance of winning if he wins Texas and Florida.

Therefore, both candidates are aggressively campaigning in the battlefield states to seek voter support on the final and final days of the elections.

So far, it’s hard to predict whether Trump or Biden will win, despite polls leaning toward Biden nationally, as well as in many battlefield states, including where Trump won in 2016 like Florida, Georgia. , Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona.

With the changes in the form of mobilization and the way voters participate in voting, there is a lot of unpredictability in this 3/11 election.

If President Trump does not win, the main reason is that Covid-19 has disrupted all economic, social, educational and political activities in the United States in the last eight months.

The article reflects the author’s own opinion, he is a lecturer at a community college in the San Francisco Bay Area, California.