What is the difficulty in forecasting the staff of the XIII Party Congress?

The method of carrying out the work of the personnel of the Communist Party of Vietnam is currently the greatest challenge and difficulty for analysts and forecasts at the national and international level about the XIII Congress of the CPV, as well as about the elections. select the staff of this congress, according to a Vietnamese political researcher from Hanoi.

Speaking to BBC News Vietnamese on September 28, 2020 from Hanoi, Dr. Ha Hoang Hop, Visiting Principal Investigator at the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies (Iseas-Singapore) said:

“Until now, the way of staffing the VCP has been internal, there is no transparency, people do not know, what they say, people know.

“So that can be seen as the difficult, the most difficult, so the forecasts are analyzed at a very limited level because people are not transparent.

“So in the near future there will be a 13th Central Conference, I heard that it will take place around October 5, so if the Communist Party of Vietnam publishes more information, then the world and the world will know you. it may be better in some way.

“That is the most difficult because the party personnel follow the internal style, although the principles are also stated by the party. But saying the principles like this, we see that the preparation is not very specific

“For example, it is said that the Central Executive Committee is about 200 people, the Politburo is 17 to 19 people, the number of alternates is 20-25 people, their age is also announced.

“But through what they announced as Decision 35, the previous Directive 90, then the standards of Directive 214, it also shows that there is a gradual opening, more specifically it may be to wait. wait longer, so if you’re not careful, you don’t know the principles, your prediction may be wrong. “

‘Forced’

When asked to comment on comments made by researchers and observers inside and outside Vietnam in the past and so far, Ha Hoang Hop said:

“I see that people have tried hard, but people don’t trust what is official, almost people don’t trust what everyone hears.

“So if we do it and we continue to do it, it won’t clarify, it will specify the research results or the predictions.

“If it is not based on something very specific, like the official statements of the Communist Party of Vietnam at the last XII Central Conference, or earlier, those predictions will surely be skewed. or deviated from reality.

“Of course, predicting, analyzing or investigating is everyone’s right, especially forecasts about the current Vietnamese party congress, because the VCP is the ruling party, so the people of Vietnam like it or not, more or less, will be and will be worried.

“Looking at all the forecasts from the outside or from the inside during the past time, we can see that there are some forecasts that seem very scientific, but to confirm these predictions, they are consistent with In fact, with the things that people do not want to say or no, it is easy to see that they do not match.

“Meanwhile, people, including party members who cannot directly elect leaders, see that here the party uses centralized democracy and people also use other principles such as leadership. The collective, based on convention preparation practices, is quite complex.

“The 13th Congress began to prepare in August 2018, which is the work that began more than two years before the congress, you can see that in the Communist Party of Vietnam people have been very focused and people have been However, the experience of previous and recent congresses shows that it takes a long time to see clearly who are the candidates for important positions in the party. For example, the ‘four pillars’ or ‘the three pillars’, or who is the Secretary General, who occupies which seat there.

“But looking in a simple way, you can see that what is the number of members of the Central Executive Committee of the Congress that will be elected at the next meeting, you can easily guess, I take the example of If a provincial or city congress ( for example, at the central level) secretary is elected, generally they are allowed to attend the 13th national congress of the CPV and those people will be candidates to take on the Central Executive Committee, which is simple, well-founded and visible.

“One more detail is that it seems that the XIII Congress will not be held in January 2021, but perhaps a month later.”

‘Foresight is essential’

Despite the difficulties and challenges, but according to Dr. Ha Hoang Hop, the forecasting work in the research world, the political analysis is still waiting and he agrees.

“Prediction, prediction is essential because people care, because those leaders are elected who will have an impact on the nation. But we see some things, for example, that it was very clear that the XIII Congress was not a party convention, but that it would amend the Party Charter.

“Without having to change the party’s statutes, one thing led to no one being allowed to occupy a position for more than two consecutive years, so age and health related issues were also inferred.

“So if people don’t change the rules, then where will they go from the ‘four pillars’ to the ‘three pillars’? So, to keep guessing that the next congress here will be the ‘three pillars’, then it will become a fun prediction, prediction.

“So, keep guessing that this man, that man will stay for a third term, the funnier it will be. I just take an example that recently I saw people saying that in the case of Mr. Pham Binh Minh, that would still be the Minister of Foreign Affairs, it was not true, because he had done two courses, so he came This is sure he will not do anymore the third term of chancellor, but what he will do, is planned so far, but the plans are not officially announced, then it will be clearer to wait.

“As for health, if you don’t have enough health, you simply can’t do it, but the health regulations are very strict and inside people cannot hide that health.

“Another point in terms of age is that ‘breaking the age limit’, until now, there is still no idea that the age limit was eliminated, which is the upper age limit, so people over 65 years they remain in the four pillars (such as sitting President of the Secretary General, etc …) that in more than one case is not seen.

“However, there is also new information that suggests that HNTW13 could argue that the number of people who will stay above 65 will be more than 1, for example 3. And it is possible to quickly revise the Charter so that people work in the course. Tuesday”.

How is it different from the previous congress?

When asked whether in the upcoming 13th Congress, compared to the previous one, the interest of analysts and forecasts on Vietnam’s politics have any difference or not, Ha Hoang Hop said:

“I see them the same, they still see who is in the ‘Four Pillars’ and who is in the Politburo, mostly like this, and the Central Committee of the Party can still change there. .

“In terms of quantity, seeing someone say that the strict rule is 15 people, I don’t think there is such a regulation.

“Since the 7th or 6th Congress, the number of Politburo members is 18, 19 or 17 people, there is no regulation of 15 or 13 people.

“So based on this so-called ‘strict regulation’, analyzing, forecasting and talking will become biased, vague and unjustified.

“Regarding the care of individuals it is completely correct, because it relates to whether the individual is in a position to infer, to predict whether that individual will be able to do the job or will do it. No matter how much they can do it, it is a perfectly reasonable concern.

“But the basis of what you can do is really difficult to know, because ordinary people cannot know what you really have.

“Or people are also interested and see that nothing is accidental if there is a phenomenon of politicians from the same country, or who come from a region, because one more principle is safe. Regional structure through which many people in the same places can hold positions in the Central Committee or at a higher level, such as positions in the main committees of the party or in the Politburo or the Secretariat. letter, etc …

“Then people also became interested and saw something important about human relations and national foreign affairs, now that he put someone who has no experience in foreign affairs to work in the Except that nobody does, unless you have a certain which is why you don’t have to work in foreign affairs, but in two areas where it is directly related to foreign affairs.

“Because foreign affairs have two other things to do with defense and security, it is obvious that the defense, security and foreign affairs group is an extremely important group, so if someone can be sent as diplomacy for a country who is not, for example, a diplomat, it must be someone who has been involved in foreign affairs, but in the bloc, or in the defense and security sector. That could be a great possibility, although there have been exceptions in the past … ” Dr. Ha Hoang Hop told BBC News Vietnamese on September 28, 2020 from Hanoi.