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Since then, the epidemic has spread to 102 more countries, the number of infected people has risen to 108,855,899 (as of February 13, 2020), the number of people receiving treatment has reached a continuous maximum as of 1/30/2021 with 26.1 million people. 2021 decreased to 25.4 million people. The total number of deaths is 2.347 million (an average of 311 deaths per million people). That means the global Covid-19 pandemic is experiencing the first wave of infections, peaking on January 30, 2121. After 325 days (since March 11, 2020), the global pandemic has reached the first wave of infections
When the World Health Organization announced the global pandemic (11:11, 2020), an average of 1 million people were being treated, 9 people infected. This can be considered as the threshold to distinguish between the world with the infection, but not the epidemic (less than 10 people are being treated / 1 million people) and the epidemic world (more than 10 people are being treated / 1 million people ).
In other words, with the publication “World with Covid-19 pandemic” on 11.11.2020 from the World Health Organization, the level of infection can be considered as shown by the index “Number of infected people in treatment. The value in health facilities per 1 million people is 10 people ”is the global epidemic safety threshold and can be used to assess the infection situation of a country or territory, among other indicators, such as: total accumulated number of infected people; number new infections per day, cumulative total deaths, number of deaths per day These indicators depend on the country’s population and therefore cannot be used for cross-country comparisons.
On October 17, 2020, this rate in the world was 1,166 people in treatment / 1 million people, more than 116 times more than when the epidemic was announced and on January 30, 2121, the world average of 3,380 infected people with Covid. 19 are receiving treatment for every million people, 338 times more than when the epidemic was announced.
Number of infected people receiving treatment in global health facilities |
The question now is: when will the global infection level, measured in terms of the number of people receiving treatment in health centers, drop to less than 10 people per million people, which means that it is still contagious but not ? as before 11.11.2020?
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China did not provide enough data for the investigation team of the origin of the Covid-19 epidemic |
There is currently no scientific basis for making this forecast, as the conditions and methods to prevent epidemics in the coming time will be very different from the period before 1.2.2021, which is when the Covid-19 vaccine is not widely used. know how widely available and what are vaccines against Covid-19 variants.
Very preliminary and very optimistic, it can be estimated: the time of an outbreak from March 11, 2020 to a first peak on January 30, 2021 is 325 days, the time of the epidemic is gradually reduced to the point that remains. contagious. no translation is also about 325 days. That means that at the earliest, late 2021 and early 2022, the world will no longer have epidemics, but will continue to infect on a small scale in many countries. That is, the world changed to a new normal state: infectious, but without an epidemic. However, there may still be epidemics in some countries, with a rate of infected people receiving treatment exceeding 10 people per million people. (Follow, continue)
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