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Vietnam is expected to be the only Southeast Asian economy to grow this year, according to a report by Oxford Economics (UK).
Inside a garment factory in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, taken in 2019 (Illustration: Reuters)
The Oxford Economics “Global Economic Outlook” report predicts that Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.3% in 2020 and that Vietnam will be the only economy. growth in Southeast Asia this year.
The report claims that Vietnam has the brightest recovery prospects compared to other countries in the region thanks to the very effective control of the Covid-19 epidemic so far. According to the newspaper Nation (Thailand), the pandemic has caused the largest growth impact in Southeast Asia since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, and regional growth is forecast to decline by 4.2% by 2020.
The report also said that economic activities in the region are showing signs of recovery and are likely to grow by 2021. However, the rate of recovery in the second half of 2020 will vary between countries. in the region depending on the relaxation of embargo restrictions and the improvement in export demand.
Despite the recovery in the third quarter with an increase of 6.4%, world GDP is expected to fall 4.4% this year. But the dynamics incorporated in the second half of 2020 will drive growth to 5.8% by 2021. Covid-19 has reduced global GDP by about 9% in the first half of 2020, at least 3 times more. the decrease of the financial crisis 2007-2009. The report predicts that the world economy will recover to its pre-crisis peak by the middle of next year.
Southeast Asian countries will have different rates of economic recovery in the second half of 2020. Mark Billington, Director of China and Southeast Asia at the British and Welsh Institute of Chartered Accountants, said: “The road to recovery for the economies of the Southeast Asia will be a very long one, in the context of escalating tensions between the United States and China, the long-term slowdown in global trade and the Covid-19 pandemic. “
Billington said countries that know how to balance economic resumption and disease control will see their economies grow again faster than the rest.
Lord emperor
According to the Nation
