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Only a few hours will signal that the United States will enter the biggest event: the presidential elections to determine who will be the leader of the country in the next four years. Joe Biden or Donald Trump? Who will history call?
Page Five thirty eight Summing up the poll results as of November 2.11, all predictions show the advantage in favor of Democratic candidate Joe Biden. Specifically, Biden has a better chance of winning than Trump for many months in a row. As for the number of electoral votes, the poll results showed that Biden could get 279 votes, while Trump won 125 votes. Among them, Biden is said to have 190 electoral votes in hand, 89 votes with a lot of hope. Trump will likely have 83 votes and is more likely to get 42 votes from favored states. There are 134 votes from battlefield states that are having a hard time determining the winner.
However, in an unpredictable election like this year, all scenarios can happen and Trump also has many chances to be re-elected for the second term. The Washington Post, There are three scenarios that could help Trump win.
Mr. Trump’s opportunity
- Florida, Florida, Florida
The next thing for him is to keep the red southern states that have become competitive this year. Arizona (11 votes), Georgia (16 votes) and Texas (38 votes), the three states that have been considered Republican strongholds for many years, but are now a big target for Democrats.
The path will widen as Trump maintains his form in the midwestern states of Iowa and Ohio (6 and 18 electoral votes respectively), where he defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016. But that remains the case. is not sufficient. Trump needs to win in North Carolina (15 votes). So, adding all the states that would likely win and almost win the same states mentioned above, Trump was able to get 258 votes. With this scenario, Trump only needs to win Michigan (16 electoral votes) or Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) and he will have more than 270 electoral votes to remain in the White House.
President Trump voted early at the polls in Florida |
Apparently this year, Trump has set a goal to maintain his feat in Pennsylvania and to put in a lot of effort campaigning in Michigan. A look back at the Trump campaign shows that trade and employment policies were directed at Pennsylvania. During his final debate on October 22, Biden, speaking about the energy industry, mentioned reforming the oil industry and gradually replacing it with renewable energy. Immediately, the Trump campaign captured the weaknesses and said rival Biden’s plan will have a major impact on Pennsylvania, causing many people to lose their jobs and affect the livelihoods of rural voters in this state. .
In this scenario, in addition to the states that would win and almost win, Trump had to win in Florida, Texas, Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, plus one of the two states, Michigan and Pennsylvania. With the race and campaign strategies above, coupled with the pursuit of fierce competition in the aforementioned states, let’s wait and see if Trump wins according to the possible scenario above.
- Big win in the Midwest and Industrial Belt
Another scenario that was taken into account was that Trump achieved a major victory over key states in the northern Midwest and the Industrial Belt to increase his chances of winning in the end. Specifically, if Trump kept states red but fluctuates this year to include Texas, Georgia, then wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, along with nearby states of Minnesota, Iowa and Ohio, he would have had 259 electoral votes.
To win at least 11 votes to help Trump win the final, there are many ways. Among the remaining states on the battlefield, Trump wins if he wins one of the three states of Florida (29 electoral votes), Arizona (11 electoral votes), or North Carolina (15 electoral votes). If he cannot conquer the three important battle states above, Mr. Trump can be re-elected if he wins all of the states of Nevada (6 votes), New Hampshire (4 votes) and Nebraska’s 2nd county (1 vote).
In the above scenario, in case Trump does not win in Michigan, he must win in Florida or in Arizona and North Carolina at the same time.
Trump currently has less of an advantage over Biden, but Trump’s active campaign in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may provide him with opportunities. Because the results in these states are often determined by small gaps, since in 2016 it was less than 1 percentage point. In short, for Trump, the setting always has to be Pennsylvania and / or Florida.
A scenario that does not come from battle states but that still opens an opportunity for Trump is the error of the polls or the polls that do not reach Trump’s voters. In this case, Trump’s ability to win could be much brighter than it is today.
Is Mr. Biden’s path easy or difficult?
Taking current indicators into account, the advantage is in Biden’s favor on most of the front, so Biden’s winning scenario is much easier than Trump’s.
- Make sure there is
Biden only needs to maintain the states in which he has a worthy advantage according to the results of the exploration, he will surely win. Specifically, with 190 “hard” votes, Mr. Biden only needs to get 89 hopeful votes, including Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9) , Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Nebraska’s No. 2 constituency (1), would be elected with 279 electoral votes.
It’s worth noting that Pennsylvania is the key key that Biden has to win in this scenario.
Mr. Biden campaigned on the Pennsylvania state battlefield. |
- Florida, it’s still Florida
Like Trump, Florida remains the tipping point Biden needs to win in this second scenario. If Biden wins in Florida, his chances are open. You need to earn more in states that are leaning toward democracy according to the latest polls, including Colorado, Virginia, Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire. At this point, Mr. Biden could have around 261 electoral votes.
At the time, Mr. Biden was just one step away from winning in one of the battlefield states, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.
The 6 states mentioned above were the places that witnessed the defeat of democracy in the 2016 elections and these are still very unpredictable states.
Analyzing the above scenarios, we can see that Florida and Pennsylvania are two states that the winner is almost required to have on the map, at least one of them.
- Unexpected reward
Another scenario is presented this year with an important factor being Texas, which has 38 electoral votes. As discussed above, Texas was once a red state, the stronghold of the Republican Party, but this year it has become a fluctuating state.
Although Trump is still in the lead, according to current polls, the persecution rate is very tight and Biden still has a chance at this “big payoff,” thus opening the door closer to the White House.
With this scenario, although he did not win in Pennsylvania and Florida, Biden still won the final if he got the states in his favor, namely Virginia (13), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada . (6), New Hampshire (4), Nebraska County Number 2 (1).
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