US elections: ‘Trump may lose, but Trumpism is just beginning’

“Even if Donald Trump loses, Trumpism will survive.”

This idea has appeared in several comments predicting the victory of Democratic candidate Joe Biden before the US presidential election on November 3, according to SCMP.

With Biden confirmed as the 46th president of the United States, thus putting Trump in the presidency for a term, the full meaning of “Trumpism will exist” is just beginning to be felt.

Biden is poised to take over the White House by winning the most votes for a US presidential candidate; But the results also show that Trump has extended his support in rural areas and is likely to save the majority of his party’s Senate in the process.

Trumpism, a doctrine that encompasses a strong mix of rudeness, economic nationalism, authoritarianism and, according to many critics, racism and flirtatious authoritarianism. talent – is still admired by many, according to the SCMP article.

The latest results show that Trump won more than 70 million votes, or 48% of total votes, despite some predictions of a “green wave” due to the mishandling of the Covid pandemic by the Trump administration. -19.

As Financial Times political commentator Edward Luce wrote in a pre-election article, the ingredients that led to the rise of Trumpism in America will not go away anytime soon: a fervent supporter at home, the despair of the working class, the rise of China. (“China threat”) and the insecurity of the middle class.

The influence of Trumpism is more likely to emerge in the actions of meetings of Congress and the Republican Congress.

Daniel Sneider, a scholar of American foreign policy in Asia at Stanford University, said: “The current power of the Trumpism movement will be felt mainly within the Republican Party itself, where the founders are France will be reluctant to oppose Trump because of his ability to dominate a key bloc of voters. ”

Analysts around the world are also fully aware of this political reality.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science scholar at Thailand’s Chulalongkorn University, said that if Biden was willing to heal the gap between the two parties with the aim of increasing his party’s chances before the midterm elections in 2022, “He will have no choice but to maintain some of Trump’s initiatives and programs.”

So what effect will Trumpism’s lingering influence have on Asia in the Biden era?

There will be interviews with American political analysts, academics, and diplomats on Asia that show the clearest signs of Trump’s influence after January 20 (the end of Trump’s term). found in trade policy.

Asian trading economies like Japan and Singapore, and America’s free trade advocates, raise hopes that if Biden wins, he will quickly bring America back to the negotiating table to revive. The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement that Trump repealed within weeks of taking office.

Frank Lavin, the US ambassador to Singapore from 2001 to 2005, told This Week in Asia on election night that the “biggest and only question mark” in Biden’s trade policy was his stance on TPP, the creation of the Former President Barack Obama, Biden’s former boss.

Deborah Elms, CEO of consulting firm Asian Trade Center, gave three reasons why the ‘Trump school’ forces would prevent Biden from even signing a multilateral treaty.

Elms said that early on, Biden would have a difficult time getting the Senate to approve Commerce Ministry officials and potentially being controlled by Trump’s ally Mitch McConnell.

It will also face difficulties with the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), a mechanism that allows incumbent administrations to send trade agreements to Congress to obtain votes in person without modifications. it must be renewed at the end of June.

If Biden wants a multilateral trade deal on his agenda, he must present it to Congress before the second quarter of 2021.

The McConnell-led Senate is likely to disapprove of this for Biden. In fact, the Senate will likely give the new administration very little legislative space.

Elms predicts that the Senate will pass all but the TPP and TPA by 2021 before getting increasingly ‘tougher’.

“The space for Biden to run after Trump will always be limited,” said the veteran trade expert.

Add in the hurdles that the team presents outside of Trump’s office, plus business confusion for both parties, urgent action timelines, inheritance policies difficult to support, you’ve likely got a formula from the US government. Focus on a lot of things, but maybe not so much on commerce. ”

Trump’s legacy is likely to have a big effect on Biden in other aspects of foreign policy, especially when it comes to China.

China was at the center of the pre-election presidential debates, with Trump accusing Biden of easing pressure on Beijing for trade and security.

A few days before the March 11 election, Biden’s advisers told Reuters that on the trade war, started by Trump, Democrats “will not take a position anytime soon before seeing exactly what they are. I’m inheriting it. “But I will consult the allies.

“What will change is Washington’s approach, which will be more diplomatic and less unpredictable,” said Michael Vatikiotis, regional director for Asia at the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue. and the approach can make these policies more effective and impactful, which many US lawmakers will appreciate. “

Many thought that Biden would maintain Trump’s toughness on Beijing, but avoid a belligerent approach.

However, Sneider cautions that Republican factions supporting Trump have the ability to attack “whatever evidence they see or believe, that Biden is soft on China,” possibly forcing the president. You must be careful with the changes of forms.

“I still think that he will want to reestablish relations with Beijing, although he did not withdraw some policies such as dealing with Huawei and competing with technology,” Sneider said. “Of course, if the Chinese leadership decides to challenge the Biden administration in Taiwan, the South China Sea or elsewhere, that will force the United States to have a tough response.”

In general, however, as soon as there is a Republican Senate, Biden’s policy in Asia can still be “coherent and consistent,” said Lee Morgenbesser, an international relations scholar at the university. Griffith Australian School says.

Other scholars have argued that fighting Trumpism requires looking beyond Trump personally.

“The real danger to democracy in the United States is a populist candidate who has Trump’s appeal, but not all of his rough edges. He anticipates such a leader. The word will appear [Đảng Cộng hòa]”Morgenbesser said.