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Many major US media “named” Democratic candidate Joe Biden as the winner of the White House race. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump still refused to accept the results, accusing Democrats of cheating votes, but failing to provide evidence and promoting a series of lawsuits related to the vote-counting process.
With little indication that Trump will leave the White House alone after losing his election, US experts and former officials see a growing danger that he may take last-minute action to push his priorities, while “hand-tied” to the successor.
President Donald Trump (right) and President Xi Jinping in Beijing in 2017. Photo: AP
If Trump decides to leave the White House with a “buzz,” the focus could be foreign policy, using tools he can launch quickly and with minimal obstruction. And China appears to be a potential target, as Trump frequently blames Beijing for Covid-19, the pandemic that has dragged the US economy down, overwhelming his reelection prospects.
“Trump promised to punish China for Covid-19, so what does that mean?” Asked Jeff Moon, a former US National Security Council official. He sees a high possibility that the Trump administration will take last-minute sanctions measures against Beijing.
One way to worsen the already boring relationship between the United States and China and undermine the Biden administration’s efforts to improve bilateral cooperation may involve Taiwan. Options could include sending another cabinet member to Taipei, strengthening military ties with Taiwan, and announcing negotiations toward a free trade agreement with the island.
“They are trying to implement as many irreversible policies as possible, whether for China, Iran or anywhere else,” says Bonnie Glaser, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). , comment.
The Xinjiang problem could also be another easy target. In addition to punishing China for the alleged mass detention of Uighurs in Xinjiang, which Beijing has insistently denied, Trump could block the visas of many Chinese officials or cause problems by requiring American athletes not to attend the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. .
Other Trump options include punishing more Chinese state-owned companies, extending restrictions on exports of “dual-use” items that can be used for both military and civilian purposes, and other bans. Chinese post-TikTok and WeChat apps often block all semiconductor sales activities to technology corporation Huawei. On the other hand, Washington could also declare China a currency manipulator, subjecting it to punitive tariffs, said Thomas Duesterberg, an expert at the Hudson Institute, a former official with the US Department of Commerce.
The tendency to push for last minute policy changes often occurs when a president has a successor from the opposition party, according to University of Chicago professor William Howell and University of Wisconsin professor Kenneth Mayer.
“If the incumbent president loses the election, he has every reason to speed up policy making a bit, to do whatever he can to tie up the successor,” Howell and Kenneth wrote in the journal Presidential Studies. Quarterly.
However, according to analysts in Washington, the infighting could fail in any attempt to punish China or tie up Biden. Some ministers may support a hard line against Beijing. The State Department may try to deny visas to senior Chinese officials. The Department of Commerce and the Ministry of Defense can support the imposition of more export restrictions. The Ministry of Justice may impose additional limits on prospective Chinese science and international students. But these actions may face opposition from the Finance Ministry and the Office of the US Trade Representative, which wants to protect what it sees as a notable achievement: the Phase One Trade Agreement between the United States and China. .
Even Trump can have conflicting agendas. “There will be tensions within the administration between China’s hardliners who want to tie up the Biden government and those who want the Biden administration to maintain good relations with Beijing to ensure favorable business opportunities and large investments from China in the future, “said James Green, an expert at Georgetown University.
Vu hoang (According to the SCMP)
