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Finally, the first meeting between the two candidates in the race for the White House took place on the night of September 29 (US time) in what is considered the most “chaotic” debate in the history of these debates. television among the presidential candidates of the United States.
In this verbal and verbal attack, the winner is seen as the one who left with the least damage, and in that sense it seems that Mr. Biden has the upper hand over this debate.
But who wins, who in this debate determines the voter’s vote? History has shown that debates do not completely change the judgments of voters, but they can trigger a process to reinforce a resounding victory or lead to spectacular subversion.
In 1960, Kennedy’s young Democratic candidate entered a debate with the high-ranking Republican politician Nixon under the underdog. But confidence, enthusiasm and convincing performance ushered in a close last-minute comeback.
For the vast majority of Republican and Democratic “loyal” voters, the outcome of this debate does not matter what it takes to influence their decision, as there is no need to wait for candidates. An exposed candidate, your ballot has always had a clear choice.
But this debate will have an impact on “undecided” voters and “loyal” voters, who will only make their own decisions at the last minute or may change their own. before Election Day, especially in “battlefield” states where neither party has the upper hand.
Until now, while in most states it was well known which candidate would win the most votes, only a handful of “battlefield” states would decide who would win. And where no party has a clear majority, this group of “wavering” voters will have the last word.
It was this group of voters who toppled Clinton and made Trump president in 2016 in an election in which all previous predictions assumed that Clinton would be the winner, and indeed Clinton did. 3 million popular votes more than Trump at the time.
But unlike all other elections, in the US presidential election, it doesn’t matter how many votes you get, but where you get them from. Although Clinton had a higher popular vote in 2016, but with the defeat in the “battlefield” states, she ended up being the loser.
Therefore, it is not difficult to see that in the remaining 35 days, both candidates will focus on the ballots of the groups of voters who doubt in these “battlefield” states. While Trump will have to find a way to turn things around, Biden will have the easier task of trying to limit the damage to maintain his leadership advantage.
Election day is just over a month away, but it’s still unclear who the winner will be. Even if Mr. Biden has an advantage after this debate, there will be two more matches left and for many undecided voters, their votes will wait until Election Day.
Will the “October surprise” happen? The lessons of the 2016 election kept anyone wary of his judgment until the last minute.
