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The world is struggling with epidemics and many uncertainties, which creates great pressure on the economic outlook. Vietnam also faces many risks, but is expected to grow well, leading the world.
Highest growth in the world
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has just released the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 report, of which Vietnam’s economy is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2020, up from 1.8% forecast. released in September 2020.
Therefore, compared to the previous time, the updated report is brighter. The long-term and long-term outlook according to the ADB has not changed, very positive, but the main reason is that Vietnam still controls the epidemic well and participates in many bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. high economic openness.
According to the ADB, the rapid growth of the Vietnam economy from 0.36% in the second quarter to 2.6% in the third quarter helped average growth in the first three quarters of the year to 2.1%. This is the factor that makes the ADB forecast that Vietnam will achieve GDP growth of 2.3% for all of 2020.
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| The world economy has been heavily influenced by the Covid epidemic. |
The reason Vietnam posted positive and fairly high growth against the background of most of the world’s economies, including those in Southeast Asia and Asia, was less affected by the Covid pandemic. -19 is due to strong public investment, recovery in domestic consumption, increased trade, especially with China.
ADB forecasts that Vietnam’s growth in 2021 will be 6.1%.
Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also raised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2020 to 2.4% (compared to 1.6% in the previous forecast), among the highest in the world. gender thanks to Viet Nam’s prompt response and successful epidemic prevention.
According to IMF forecasts, Vietnam will grow 6.4% in 2021 and inflation is expected to remain close to the government’s target of 4%.
Standard Chartered forecasts even higher, with Vietnam’s economic GDP growth in 2020 reaching 3% and 7.8% by 2021 thanks to increased consumption and increased manufacturing.
Also in the previous report, TS. Can Van Luc and the team of authors from the BIDV Research and Training Institute said that Vietnam’s economy will rebound in a V shape from the bottom of the second quarter, then regain its third quarter growth momentum and grow well over the year. . 2021. Next year, Vietnam’s GDP growth will be 6.5 to 7%.
At the end of October, the Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) forecasts that Vietnam can achieve a full annual growth of 2.8%.
As can be seen, most of the domestic and foreign organizations forecast that Vietnam will grow 2.5-3% in a difficult year 2020. In a moment of only half a month it is the end. year, the 2020 economic outlook is clearly depicted. These forecasts are very close against the background of Vietnam making an impressive recovery on a quarterly basis and will often make a breakthrough in the last quarter of the year.
There are still many difficulties
Despite an impressive recovery thanks to macroeconomic stability and good control of the Covid spread, the Vietnamese economy still faces many risks.
Against the background of a deep global economic recession and a failure to emerge from the effects of the pandemic, Vietnam’s economy in 2020 and beyond is also expected to be adversely affected by supply and demand.
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| Vietnam maintains macroeconomic stability. |
Economic activity in developing countries in Asia is forecast to decline by 0.4 percent this year, according to the latest ADB report. The outlook for 2021 remains the same, but it still faces many uncertainties, such as the resurgence of Covid translation, the slow global recovery, ongoing trade tensions, and the business sector meeting. hard. These can lead to multiple closures and bankruptcies, putting pressure on the job market and the banking sector.
In fact, the world has come a long way in terms of the Covid-19 vaccine. After the UK, the US has also approved Pfizer / BioNTech vaccines for people 16 years of age and older. However, at present, the disease situation is still very bad in America, Europe and Asia.
In the United States, the number of infected people rose rapidly to 17 million people, more than 306 thousand people died. In the first two weeks of December alone, the US recorded more than 30,000 deaths.
In Europe, the epidemic situation is also quite complicated. Germany imposed a nationwide lockdown during the week of Christmas and New Years due to the number of people infected and killed by Covid at a record level. Schools and non-essential activities will be closed.
In Asia, South Korea is likely to implement the highest level of social gap to limit the spread of the epidemic after it recorded more than 1,000 infections in the community in one day, over the weekend. .
The unpredictable developments of the pandemic may slow the recovery of many of the world’s major economies, thus affecting Vietnam.
However, the Vietnamese economy remains a bright spot in the region and the world with the highest and most positive growth rates. According to ADB experts, Vietnam’s medium and long-term economic outlook remains very positive, partly thanks to the fact that Vietnam has signed a number of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements.
Increasing integration with the opening up of the world’s leading economy will help Vietnam’s economy to recover quickly. Not only that, in the current trend of integration, Vietnam is more likely to benefit from the shift of supply chains to lower cost countries.
The Vietnamese economy is expected to benefit from the continued shift of production from China to Vietnam and from the implementation of the Free Trade Agreement between Vietnam and the European Union (EU).
With the positive developments of the Covid vaccine, the world economy may recover soon and this is the driving force for the Vietnam economy to flare up against the background of Vietnam maintaining macroeconomic stability. continue to increase public spending and reforms in the business environment.
M. Ha
