The risk of China establishing military bases in Southeast Asia | World

10/11/2020 Business, World



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In a recent report, the US Defense Department warned that China “may have considered” establishing a logistical infrastructure and military bases in five Southeast Asian countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar and Thailand. Lan and Singapore. International experts say Beijing may consider a developing investment model to access business infrastructure abroad and then quietly establish a logistics facility or military base with forces stationed. . This model has been used by Beijing since 2017 to establish the first foreign base in Djibouti (East Africa).

The “Djibouti Trap” in Southeast Asia

In terms of its ability to establish a military presence in Southeast Asia, China has made the most progress in Cambodia. “Over the past decade, we have seen China invest massively in infrastructure projects in Cambodia. At the same time, the two sides are strengthening military cooperation, including joint exercises, financial and technical assistance, and arms sales, ”said Jeffrey Becker, Director of the Indian Ocean Security Research Program. Pacific at the US Naval Analysis Center, said Youth.

Cambodia was recently questioned by the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) over the destruction of a US-funded defense facility at the Ream naval base (Sihanoukville province, overlooking the Gulf of Thailand) to serve. the tacit agreement allows Chinese warships to dock at Ream. In response to this news, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen claimed that China “would not have exclusive access” to Ream’s base, regardless of whether Beijing finances the project to improve the base. However, the US Embassy in Cambodia has warned that allowing Chinese warships to dock at Ream could help Beijing easily increase intimidation and coercion in the South China Sea.

“We see strong similarities in China’s approach to Djibouti and Cambodia. Specifically, in the long-term plan in Djibouti, China encourages investments, strengthens bilateral relations, but always denies the intention of establishing military bases, ”said the expert Becker.

Southeast Asia distrusts Chinese intentions

Answer Youth, Dr. Ian Storey, an expert on Southeast Asia at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Research Institute (Singapore), commented: “Except for Cambodia and Myanmar, which are too dependent on China economically, in the short term Other countries like Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore will not agree to help China establish a military presence in the region.

For example, Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi confirmed on Wednesday that Indonesia would not allow any country, including China, to establish a military presence in the country, according to The Jakarta Post. “As for Bangkok, trying to balance the relationship with the United States and China, a logistics facility for the Chinese army in Thailand would not be possible,” Storey said.
“Like Djibouti, China increased its economic, political and even cultural influence in Southeast Asia over time before moving on to establish a military presence. However, Southeast Asian countries have a history of always looking for ways to maintain a balance in their relations with the great powers, ”said the expert Becker.
Amid the Covid-19 epidemic, China still maintained the strategy of “debt book diplomacy”, providing loans for infrastructure development, making countries increasingly dependent on Beijing economically. gradually establishing a military presence, said expert Sascha-Dominik Dov Bachmann of the University of Canberra (Australia) Youth. “You don’t have to be permanently posted; The ability of Chinese warships to access logistics facilities in Southeast Asia is also a concern for regional security in the context of the intensification of the militarization of the South China Sea by Beijing, ”Bachmann noted.

Not just Southeast Asia, China also applies the Djibouti model in South Asian countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. In mid-2017, Sri Lanka signed a $ 1.1 billion deal to sell 70% of the port’s strategic stake in Hambantota to China, in order to pay off a massive $ 8 billion in debt. Since then, Chinese warships and submarines have regularly docked in the port of Hambantota.




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