The risk of a military crisis in Asia in 2021 | World



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According to News.com.au on March 3, experts invited to attend the China-US Commission hearing in the US Congress said there is a possibility that Beijing will exploit the Covid-19 pandemic to provoke a crisis. . Military crisis with Taiwan and in the region.

The focus of Taiwan, East China Sea

At the hearing to forecast the South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan in 2021, the director of the Australian Institute of Strategic Policy (ASPI), Peter Jennings, predicted that China could “test the limits”, making a difference. . Increasing the probability of a major crisis involving Taiwan or the East China Sea in 2021.

According to him, that possibility may not be related to the possibility of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) carrying out an amphibious assault on the beaches of northern Taiwan, but it could be related to maritime obstruction, closure of airspace, cyber attacks, launching missiles near / flying over Taiwan, using vandalism, using PLA forces in gray zone operations or the ability to capture islands such as Kinmen, Ma To, and Dong Sa.

This expert said that Beijing will continue to investigate through military action, test the international response and continue the test. “It should come as no surprise that Beijing provokes a crisis across the Straits (Taiwan). Perhaps mainland China reckons there is a near-term opportunity to pressure Taiwan to make concessions on the political situation in the future, “he said.

According to him, it is unclear whether China will seek to carry out a major military operation in the South China Sea, but he believes it does see an advantage. “I hope that the United States maintains a long-term policy of support for Taiwan. It has to do with the trust of America’s network of allies in the Pacific, ”he said, saying like-minded countries should urgently try to deal with China’s coercive and general-purpose influence.

Gray zone strategy

Also at the hearing, China analyst Taylor Fravel at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT-USA) noted that Beijing has recently emphasized achieving purpose without the use of force.

Gray zone tactics include ignoring international borders, economic manipulation, and coercion. “A leading Indonesian politician once told me that China doesn’t have any real soft power in Southeast Asia, but it does have a lot of monetary power,” he said.

However, not all experts in the audience agree on the possible immediate threat. Expert Robert Sutter from the Elliott School of Foreign Relations (USA) said that China still has many reasons to avoid confronting the US.

Similarly, International Economics Professor Mary Lovely from Syracuse University (USA) said that a stable world economy will benefit China, but it also has serious problems, including challenges. According to her, China will continue to seek the benefits of international trade and investment and its leaders have made diplomatic efforts to achieve that benefit.

Taiwan strengthens its reserves

According to Taiwan CNA, the Taiwan Defense Agency announced on February 3 the introduction of new regulations on the reserve force, in order to increase combat readiness. Under the new policy that will apply from 2022, the reserve force will train every 2 weeks, instead of 5-7 days as it is now, and can do it annually instead of every 2 years. The new policy will be tested between 2022 and 2023, before being officially deployed widely starting in 2024. Currently, Taiwan’s reserve force is approximately 770,000 people. The announcement came after the head of the Taiwan Defense Agency, Mr. Nghiem Duc Phat, said that the agency would take steps to ensure that the reserve force was a reliable support force to protect the station. Taiwan in the face of increasing mainland Chinese military activity around Taiwan.




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