The internal price of gold will increase to 59 million / tael? The | Finance – Business

05/11/2020 Business, Vietnam, World



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Careless forecast, the risk of capital buried in gold

Gold is the “hide and seek” in the market economy that should not be discussed, since the investment involved in the movement of cash flows fluctuates widely. “Hiding” is not only in the short term, but also in the long term, when considering the long term, investing in gold has an even higher rate of profit (growth rate) than many other investment channels, such as goods. goods, services (expressed by consumer prices), strong foreign currencies (such as USD), real estate and securities (indicated by the stock index) …
Predicting the rate of increase / decrease in the price of gold plays an important role, not only “modeling” the movement of the cash flow of the investment with the expected rate of return, but also to preserve the amount of capital or reduce the amount of money to spend. spend when you buy, increase the amount of money you earn when you need to sell. The movement of cash flow is one of the most important things to refer to, it must be closely monitored by investors, manufacturers, companies and users. For Vietnam, investment is not only organizations, but also individuals; individual investors account for a large proportion, the “movement” is still large and strongly influenced by psychological factors, although it is not a direct economic factor, but the resonance effect in many cases is fast Fast, scandalous, even larger than the Economic factor.

Therefore, the lack of facilities is expected to cause great damage. A major damage is to “mold” the capital flow of society and then “bury” it in gold, while many industries and fields lack working capital; Capital flow must be continuous and fast, because fast capital flow is one of the important factors that increase capital turnover, increase the total capital used in the year and increase the rate. profit, increase capital efficiency. Another great damage is that many people have suffered great losses as it happened: from 49 million dong / tael, gradually falling to 35 million dong / tael and remaining there for many years; Or recently, after surpassing VND 49 million / tael, the price of gold fell below VND 46 / tael.

Gold “surf” increased sharply

To make predictions, it is necessary to rely on certain bases. First of all is the calculation formula. The internal price of gold is determined by the formula: internal price of gold = world price of gold x exchange rate x 1.01 (costs, taxes, earnings).
For example, the world price of gold is currently $ 1,700 / ounce, the current exchange rate of VND / USD is 23,500 VND / USD, the internal price of gold will be 1,700 / 8.3 × 23,500 × 1.01 = 47.6 million VND / quantity
On this basis, domestic gold dealers bought 47.1 million dong / tael and sold 47.6 million dong / tael was reasonable. But domestic gold traders often widen the gap between the sale price and the purchase price to millions of dong / tael to boost profits and prevent prices from falling. Therefore, the internal price of gold, in addition to depending on the world price of gold, the VND / USD exchange rate also has the psychology of the buyers (for investment, to use).

This year, specifically in the first 4 months of the year, gold prices have some notable points. Firstly, the price of gold fluctuated (increased / decreased) not according to the long cycle as in previous periods (decreased by 0.38% / year in the period 1992-2001; it increased by 24.04% / year in the period 2002-2011, decrease of 3.04% / year in the period 2012-2018. Cycles of 10 years and 7 years). Gold entered a period of high growth since 2019 (16.23% more and 12.14% in the first 4 months of 2020).

Second, the increase / decrease cycle is quite short (monthly, weekly, even a few days). This shows that the investment status “surf” is stronger, more often, if it is high, then sell, lower and then buy. The price of gold increases even when the price of the USD increases, when the inventories increase and vice versa, the prices of gold decrease even when the prices of the USD decrease, when the inventories decrease.

Third, the difference between national and world gold prices has decreased compared to the past (approximately 1 million VND / tael, including 400,000 – 500,000 VND / tael). This shows that the VND / USD internal exchange rate is stable, inflation is not high (it even decreased for 3 consecutive months) and the demand for gold speculation is not as high as before. The difference between the sale price and the purchase price of gold trading companies and stores is quite high (usually around VND 1 million / tael), because they fear risks when the increase / decrease is large, they will do it. they are the beneficiaries and the buyers are vulnerable.

Today, many world-renowned experts and organizations predict that gold will reach $ 2,000 / ounce. If the world price of gold is calculated at 2,000 USD / ounce, the internal price of gold will be 2,000 / 8.3 × 24,088 × 1.01 = 58.9 million / tael.

The internal price of gold will increase to 59 million / tael? - Photo 1 Photos



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