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Careless forecast, the risk of capital buried in gold
Therefore, the lack of facilities is expected to cause great damage. A major damage is to “mold” the capital flow of society and then “bury” it in gold, while many industries and fields lack working capital; Capital flow must be continuous and fast, because fast capital flow is one of the important factors that increase capital turnover, increase the total capital used in the year and increase the rate. profit, increase capital efficiency. Another great damage is that many people have suffered great losses as it happened: from 49 million dong / tael, gradually falling to 35 million dong / tael and remaining there for many years; Or recently, after surpassing VND 49 million / tael, the price of gold fell below VND 46 / tael.
Gold “surf” increased sharply
This year, specifically in the first 4 months of the year, gold prices have some notable points. Firstly, the price of gold fluctuated (increased / decreased) not according to the long cycle as in previous periods (decreased by 0.38% / year in the period 1992-2001; it increased by 24.04% / year in the period 2002-2011, decrease of 3.04% / year in the period 2012-2018. Cycles of 10 years and 7 years). Gold entered a period of high growth since 2019 (16.23% more and 12.14% in the first 4 months of 2020).
Second, the increase / decrease cycle is quite short (monthly, weekly, even a few days). This shows that the investment status “surf” is stronger, more often, if it is high, then sell, lower and then buy. The price of gold increases even when the price of the USD increases, when the inventories increase and vice versa, the prices of gold decrease even when the prices of the USD decrease, when the inventories decrease.
Third, the difference between national and world gold prices has decreased compared to the past (approximately 1 million VND / tael, including 400,000 – 500,000 VND / tael). This shows that the VND / USD internal exchange rate is stable, inflation is not high (it even decreased for 3 consecutive months) and the demand for gold speculation is not as high as before. The difference between the sale price and the purchase price of gold trading companies and stores is quite high (usually around VND 1 million / tael), because they fear risks when the increase / decrease is large, they will do it. they are the beneficiaries and the buyers are vulnerable.
Today, many world-renowned experts and organizations predict that gold will reach $ 2,000 / ounce. If the world price of gold is calculated at 2,000 USD / ounce, the internal price of gold will be 2,000 / 8.3 × 24,088 × 1.01 = 58.9 million / tael.
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