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Due to Covid-19, the Government proposed to adjust the 2020 GDP target to 4.5% instead of 6.8% as originally assigned by the National Assembly.
In the discussion session of the 2019 Socioeconomic Supplementary Report, the 2020 plan of the Standing Committee of the National Assembly on May 15, the Minister of Planning and Investment, Nguyen Chi Dung, said the complicated situation of Covid -19 negative impacts on the economy Globally, Vietnam is also on a spiral of influence.
The government proposed two scenarios for socioeconomic growth in 2020. On stage 1Basically, Vietnam controlled and controlled the epidemic from the second half of April, countries that were important trade and investment partners of Vietnam recovered in the third quarter. Consequently, GDP is expected to increase by 4.4-5.2% compared to 2019 (1.6-2.4 percentage points below the target of 6.8%). Agriculture, forestry and fishing increased by 2.5-2.8%; industry and construction 6.7-7.9%, services 2.8-2.6%.
Scenario 2, Vietnam basically controlled and controlled the epidemic from the second half of April and the countries that are important trade and investment partners with Vietnam recovered in the fourth quarter, GDP increased by approximately 3.6-4.4%. compared to 2019 (2.4-3.2 percentage points below the target of 6.8%). In particular, agriculture, forestry and fishing increased by 2.1-2.5%; industry and construction increased by 5.8-6.7%; The service is 1.8-2.8%.
Assessing and adjusting the 2020 targets is “necessary and appropriate for the objective practical situation”, The government proposed that the 2020 GDP target will increase by 4.5%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points compared to the target set by the National Assembly of 6.8%. If the world situation is favorable, the epidemic is under control, the market recovers better, the GDP growth rate of 5.4% will be fought.
At the same time, the average increase in the consumer price (CPI) in 2020 will be around 4%; Total export turnover increased by 4%, decreasing by 3% compared to the target set by the National Assembly. Total state budget revenue decreased by VND 163 billion compared to the assigned estimate. The state budget deficit was equal to 4.75% of GDP, an increase of 1.31% compared to the target. Fair debt is approximately 55.5% of GDP, an increase of 3.2% compared to the target.
Produce clothing at a clothing company in Long An. Photo: Nhu Quynh
Minister Nguyen Chi Dung explained that the Government informed the Politburo of the economic recovery plan after the epidemic, including this issue and some other indicators, such as public debt … adjusting GDP according to Mr. Dung is “actively managing” . Next week the Politburo will hold a meeting to comment. On this basis, if the Politburo agrees, the Government will present a report to the National Assembly.
However, members of the National Assembly Standing Committee said that careful adjustment of the socioeconomic growth targets this year is necessary.
The president of the National Assembly, Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan, said that the members of the Standing Committee of the National Assembly should comment on the adjustment or not, because the objectives in the resolution of the National Assembly are specified in the Resolution of the Central Government.
“The Central Resolution just said that it strives and strives to reach the highest level, but it does not give us the green light for us to adjust. If we want to make adjustments, we must follow the process, ask the competent authorities and ask the central”. Mrs. Ngan suggested.
The President of the National Assembly said that he did not oppose the adjustment of socioeconomic objectives by the Government, but that the last months have not been a sufficient basis to assess the growth situation. “Now the best effort is to limit the decline. There is some optimism, but the effort is strenuous,” Ngan said, noting in the current context what the risk to success is. You must take advantage.
Not to mention that the growth scenario that the Government has given is quite optimistic based on the results of good prevention and control. But Vietnam’s main economic and trade partners are still struggling. “So who do we trade with? Do we export or import? Tourism is not for people yet,” he said.
Mr. Phung Quoc Hien, Vice President of the National Assembly, also suggested that the Government should have a report on the adjustment of socio-economic development goals in 2020 to the National Assembly and the relevant authorities to explain the reasons for adjusting growth. GDP from 6.8% to 4.5%, but “it is not indicated in said report.” On that basis, the verification agencies of the National Assembly will specifically verify the objectives, because “reducing an indicator will change the estimate of the general budget.”
“Vietnam basically controls the epidemic in the country, but the situation abroad remains complicated and has not improved. With the current open economic scale, it will be very difficult,” he said.
Subsequent comments also suggested that the objective of socio-economic development should not be accelerated and “should be carefully considered”. Mr. Nguyen Hanh Phuc, Secretary General of the National Assembly, said that the current socio-economic objectives must still be maintained to fight.
“If you adjust the goals, depending on where to adjust, while the translation is not yet finished. Now the adjustment time is when the translation is more complicated, should you adjust the next one? I suggest sticking with the growth objectives. Strive,” he said. Phuc.
At the conclusion of the meeting, the vice president of the National Assembly, Phung Quoc Hien, said that there are not enough political and legal bases to adjust. He suggested that, in addition to the two scenarios, the government should develop a third scenario before the second wave of Covid-19 and the epidemic could last until next year, making it difficult for Vietnam to import, export and tourism. further away. Consequently, he said that GDP can only increase by 3%, overspending and public debt are also higher than the two existing scenarios.
Lord minh
