RCEP and Vietnam as the US withdrew, China advanced

The “Regional Comprehensive Economic Association” (RCEP) was signed on November 15, 2020, the most “massive” free trade agreement. It came out at the right time with many fluctuations and disturbances in the global supply chain. However, it is not clear whether the RCEP will help Vietnam solve the problem of the trade deficit of China and some partners within the bloc.

This year’s US post-election heat has partially overwhelmed the ASEAN-37 Summit and the East Asia Summit (EAS-15), this month’s 11-15. In this context, 10 Southeast Asian countries and 3 East Asian partners, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, signed the RCEP Agreement, the United States seemed to be excluded from the linking mechanism. zone.

In the short term, the RCEP is not necessarily the most ideal agreement that was just signed, but it is not bad either. At least in two respects. First, global companies and corporations will begin to think of Asia as the right “end market” for them. Commercial and production establishments will restructure operations to focus on markets that cover a third of the world’s population.

Second, beyond the “ASEAN + 1” trade agreements, ASEAN now gains access to trade in goods from giant economies such as China, Japan and South Korea. The simplification and consolidation of the rules of the different FTAs ​​is a “single vote”. In addition to using existing independent free trade agreements, ASEAN countries can claim market access rights under the RCEP.

In the past two years, in addition to the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), this is the second-largest agreement without the US Should the United States withdraw, then will China move on? So if Washington still only plays an “observer” role in the regional security or economic cooperation mechanism, the RCEP will become a turning point for troubled relations across Southeast Asia. and East Asia and China?

On the other hand, concern about the future still reigns. Will the RCEP and the BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) effect be the “noose” that suffocates member states once the commitments negotiated over eight years are intended to mask contradictory motives? Will the consensus process emerge and lead to an irreversible conflict?

Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said that the RCEP Agreement “is a pride and a great achievement.” However, the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI) at the time of the start of the Agreement still expressed concern, in the economic area of ​​RCEP, there were too many partners with product structures similar to Vietnamese products. But the competitiveness that Vietnam like Thailand, Indonesia, China …

Most notably, Chancellor Pham Binh Minh attended National Unity Day in Nam Dinh, his hometown on November 17, when it comes to major achievements in foreign affairs and international integration, few especially in the press, no mention of the signing of the RCEP in the framework of the ASEAN-37 Summit.

Is it different from earlier times by participating in major international institutions, in this period, Vietnam is somewhat more cautious? State newspapers have no “shaky” editorials, regarding joining RCEP as “a glorious victory.” Because, there are still concerns, with an institution susceptible to being manipulated by interest groups, Vietnam will take advantage of the opportunities offered by EVFTA, CPTPP and RSEP.

Ms Pham Chi Lan, former VCCI Vice President and General Secretary recently told the BBC that she actually approached RCEP reporting with a feeling of half happy, half concerned and perhaps even more concerned than happy. Because on the one hand, the Agreement may bring some benefits to Vietnam and also because it has certain interests, so Vietnam joined.

But on the other hand, RCEP can also pose problems. One of these problems is: Vietnam is now moving up to join the global value chain in a better position, bringing greater benefits to the economy and especially helping to improve integration, to escape. Out of position is too dependent on a number of giant partners. So will joining RCEP reduce Vietnam’s motivations, or will Vietnam neglect its long-term efforts due to its immediate interests?

Another fragile hope, RCEP would eventually act as a restraining force to some extent in China. Thinking that China will have to be more cautious in its actions in the East China Sea, East China Sea. Beijing cannot “dance wild sticks” as it will be penalized for the benefits provided by the Agreement. Who knows, after the RCEP, they never stop creating a new image of themselves for the countries of the region.

But Beijing has not held back!

As soon as the RCEP was not drained, on November 16, 2020, the English version of the “People’s Daily China” published a photo of Duy Mong Island, belonging to the Paracel Archipelago, which Vietnam claimed, together with the Beijing “is exercising in the South China Sea (South China Sea) and strictly prohibits the passage.”

And as a warning could not be more timely, on November 16 and 17, 2020, in Hanoi, the XII 2-day International Conference on the East Sea, with the theme: “Maintaining peace and stability in a period of chaos “He also noted: Last year, China took advantage of the epidemic to increase illegal activities at sea, specifically, on the occasion of countries focused on fighting the epidemic, Beijing has promoted the in the South China Sea.

Another hot topic mentioned in the aforementioned seminar related to preventing clashes at sea is the “China Coast Guard Bill”. The uncertainty here is that this bill may provide for the use of force by Chinese maritime law enforcement in the waters it claims to be in violation of UNNCLOS 1982 in the South China Sea.

The East Asia Summit, with ASEAN at the center, is the region’s main strategic forum, where leaders exchange important issues affecting peace, security and prosperity in the region. According to Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, delivering the EAS-15 opening speech.

But the “Hanoi Declaration” in EAS-15 does not specifically mention the South China Sea. The fierce disputes, which escalated abnormally this year with Chinese aggression amid the pandemic, have not been mentioned. The Declaration only establishes in a general way that Member States will strengthen practical actions and coordinate comprehensively in priority areas in response to challenges of mutual interest.

Is the aforementioned softness a strategy in one moment or is it a policy adjustment of Vietnam in particular and ASEAN in general in the next Biden era? Coming here, Vietnam sometimes only mentions “The Four” as a passing dream, or continues to persistently build a collective security framework in the direction of “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP). As long as the BRI remains like a “great wall” across the continents, “QUAD” still has living land.

Public opinion said that amid the euphoria unleashed by the RCEP event, both the owner and the leaders of EAS-15 did not want to reiterate very harsh things in the South China Sea in the last year with many possibilities. next year will be even more severe. Furthermore, at the recent ASEAN Summit, both Vietnam and the Philippines have also consecutively promoted the profile of the East Sea.

Virtually everyone knows this, while the United States wants to “confront” and “separate” from China, last year’s Indo-Pacific exercises have not been enough to deter and stop China. manipulate Southeast Asia and treat the South China Sea as its home pond.

The Chinese “carrot and stick” turned out to be a dual use. On the one hand, China continues to sink into Vietnam’s exclusive economic zones (EEZ) and continental shelf (CS) as vacant space, on the other hand, Beijing has recently tried to “praise” Hanoi. in the ASEAN presidency led ASEAN to conclude the RCEP negotiations.

That is China. Praise today, criticize tomorrow. As a geopolitical and geopolitical arrangement, the future of the RCEP will depend on how the 14 member economies and China will adjust to each other within the framework of the largest trading bloc on the planet. . On the contrary, if the Beijing leadership does not regulate, the RCEP easily becomes a “double-edged sword”, “handicap and handicap.” At that time, it is difficult for China to become the “profitable fisherman” in the future!

The article expresses the author’s own views, a former Vietnamese ambassador to the Netherlands, currently director of the Center for Information and International Cooperation, Institute for Development Studies (VIDS).