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Image source, BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI / AFP / Getty Images
Information relating to “Four Pillars” personnel is defined as “top secret”.
The 15th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam is scheduled for this weekend, about 10 days before the 13th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam scheduled to take place from January 15 to February 2. / 2/2021.
There has been some guesswork about the “scenarios” for the top four positions, also known as the “Four Pillars.”
The two most discussed “scenarios” so far point towards the possibility of Mr. Nguyen Phu Trong continuing to serve as Secretary General and Mr. Nguyen Xuan Phuc, also considered “special”, moving to the post of President . .
“The first scenario” includes the two positions mentioned above, and it is expected that the position of Prime Minister will belong to Mr. Vuong Dinh Hue and the role of Speaker of the National Assembly will correspond to Mr. Pham Minh Chinh.
The “second scenario” is rumored to reverse the roles of Hue and Chinh.
Professor Carl Thayer, a longtime Vietnamese political observer, gave an interview to the Vietnamese BBC by email about these senior staff rumors.
BBC: What do you think of the staff in the positions mentioned above? Who will be elected in which seats and why?
If Mr. Nguyen Phu Trong is re-elected Secretary General in one of two scenarios, that means that one of two things happens. Mr. Trong is either re-elected for the third full five-year term or is re-elected with the idea that he will resign before his term ends (a precedent set by Mr. Do Muoi: he left the OTC post mid-second term ). 1997).
Mr. Trong’s re-election in either scenario will be a sign that he has not prepared for a successor due to objections from the Central Committee members.
Image source, EPA
Secretary General, President of State Nguyen Phu Trong and Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc
If Mr. Nguyen Xuan Phuc is elected president, this can only be done in special circumstances due to his excellent performance. Throughout the past year, there have been persistent rumors that Mr. Phuc may have set his goal of becoming the leader of the party. Given that he served only one term as prime minister and obtained a very high number of votes from his colleagues for the job of the post, that was a compromise.
I understand that the Central Executive Committee has approved two “special cases” for Politburo members over 65. My favorite scenario is that Mr. Phuc is re-elected as prime minister for the second term.
BBC: How do you rate Mr. Pham Minh Chinh and Mr. Vuong Dinh Hue? Do you have any interesting information?
Vuong Dinh Hue, 63, is clearly the most qualified of serving Politburo members under 65 to be elected prime minister. He has been Deputy Prime Minister for the last 5 years. He has an economic background and has held positions of Minister of Finance, Auditor General of the State and Head of the Central Economic Commission. He is currently the secretary of the Hanoi Party Committee, which some analysts see as a way for him to accumulate more experience himself. If Mr. Phuc is appointed Prime Minister for the second term, in “scenario two”, Mr. Hue will take over as President of the National Assembly.
Image source, Online youth
The head of the Central Organizing Committee, Pham Minh Chinh, congratulates the new secretary of the Hanoi City Party Committee, Vuong Dinh Hue, at the decision reception ceremony on February 7, 2020.
Other analysts said that if Mr. Phuc was re-elected as Prime Minister, Mr. Hue could be appointed as Permanent Secretary.
Mr. Pham Minh Chinh is in ninth place on the Politburo, two ranks above Mr. Hue, who is in eleventh place. Mr. Chinh has a long history both in the party apparatus and in the security industry. He is Secretary of the Party Central Committee, Head of the Central Organizing Committee and former Secretary of the Quang Ninh Provincial Party Committee. He held many positions in the Ministry of Public Security in terms of logistics, technology, intelligence and was the Head of the Central Committee for Political Protection of the Party. This experience will likely place him in the presidency instead of the prime minister.
BBC: Thank you Professor.
The Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, a political organization of more than 5 million members and only the leader of the country with more than 96 million people (2019) is held every 5 years.
Foreign observers say that this event is of decisive importance for the leadership of Vietnam for many years, in particular to establish a new government for the period 2021-26 and the economic orientation of 2021-2030.
However, controlling the flow of information about the XIII Party Congress has received special attention from the State of Vietnam.
On December 30, 2020, the government issued a classified list of “state secrets,” which included information related to the party’s personnel and internal affairs, according to state media. “The personnel plans for the Secretary General, the President, the Prime Minister and the President of the National Assembly are top secret.”
