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Protesters demanding the release of Aung San Suu Kyi in the city of Mandalay, Myanmar, on February 28, 2021 – Photo: EPA-EFE
In the newspaper The times of the straitSingaporean diplomat veteran Bilahari Kausikan said Myanmar cannot be completely isolated. This country will always have China and India as its support.
“In any case, the Myanmar military is not afraid of isolation. For much of the historical period since Myanmar’s independence, it has been isolated,” Kausikan said.
Punishment only hurts people
The imposition of sanctions during the 20 years since 1988, when protests broke out across the country after decades of military rule, did not turn the country’s military into a constitutional government.
Sanctions only make the countries that impose them happy, not good. The sanctions hurt Burmese civilians and pushed the army to Chinese arms.
Due to its deep mistrust of China, the Myanmar military is also uncomfortable with this situation. One of the main reasons they experimented with constitutional government was to expand their international options.
However, compared to power, expanding diplomatic space and boosting economic development are the second most considered issues by the Myanmar military.
Myanmar soldiers during deployment to Yangon on February 28 – Photo: REUTERS
After 1988, it took ASEAN two decades to convince the Myanmar military to look to Indonesia as a model of how to help them maintain their political role without having to wear a military uniform. But the ouster of President Suharto in 1998 spooked the Myanmar military.
It was not until 2003 that the Myanmar military was confident enough to announce its “Seven-Point Roadmap to the Goal of National Reconciliation and Democratic Transition.” In 2008 a draft military constitution was ratified and in 2010 the first constitutional elections were held.
The ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) party boycotted that election, and it was not until an additional election held in 2012 that the party’s leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, was elected. The NLD won a resounding victory in 2015 and Ms Suu Kyi came to power in a special role as “state adviser”.
Mr. Bilahari Kausikan, former Secretary of State at Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and also Singapore’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Russia and Israel, said “patience is required and no solution can be expected in the future. Near the” .
The key here is trust. No one can change the mindset of Myanmar’s military generals except themselves. Only when the Myanmar military felt safe enough did things start to change, and this happened in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
The Myanmar military has clearly come to the view that handing over power, even for experimental purposes, is a hasty or false act, says Kausikan.
“I’ll shoot you in the face, I’ll use real bullets. I’m going to patrol the whole city tonight and shoot anyone I know. If I want to become a martyr, I’ll give you your money back.” . “Burmese soldiers and armed police are accused of using the TikTok video-sharing network to threaten to kill people protesting the coup – Photo: REUTERS
Drop on Ms. Suu Kyi?
Mr. Bilahari Kausikan said that this time, the Myanmar military will not give in until it completely eliminates Suu Kyi from political activities.
They charged her with various charges, including violating import and export laws, which did not provide clear regulations, when she found multiple communication devices at her home during a search and violating the law on prevention of natural disasters.
These accusations are intended to prevent her from participating in the next elections, whenever they occur. The military also repeatedly planned to remove Ms. Suu Kyi’s post of state adviser.
However, even if she is stripped of her post and detained, Suu Kyi will remain a political force, growing even stronger, and potentially becoming a lingering enigma.
It is another difficult fact that foreign protesters and supporters need to know.
