[ad_1]
Days after the assassination of prominent nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, all factions in Iran tried to present him as “theirs.”
President Hassan Rouhani’s reformist wanted Fakhrizadeh to be remembered as a supporter of Western relations. Old photographs released on December 1 show Fakhrizadeh being honored by Rouhani for helping to secure the 2015 nuclear deal that Iran signed with the United States and other world powers.
However, that same day a recording was released showing the scientist doubts about the US negotiations. “The United States will not compromise,” he said in a recording that appeared to have been recorded this year. That seemed to be a reminder from the hardliners in Iran that Fakhrizadeh was indeed on their side.
The outcome of the discussions between the two sides could have profound implications for the Biden administration, which hopes to restart nuclear talks after four years of Trump’s “dark pressure” campaign. multi “with Tehran.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in Armenia in October 2019. Image: Reuters.
Iran accused Israel of being behind the assassination and called Israel a “mercenary” of the United States. In response to the assassination, Iran’s conservative majority parliament passed a law on December 2 to immediately increase uranium enrichment beyond the level allowed by the nuclear deal and suspend nuclear inspections. United Nations officials if banking and oil sanctions against Iran are not lifted by February 2021. These moves are likely to complicate President-elect Biden’s ambitions to re-cooperate with Iran.
Meanwhile, Rouhani tries to ease the situation. “May those with more than 20 years of experience in diplomacy and who have defeated the United States many times over the past three years, proceed with caution and patience,” he said.
The assassination increased pressure from the conservative Rouhani faction, which represented the open side, on its efforts to negotiate nuclear power with Western powers. Narges Bajoghli, an Iran specialist at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, said: “There is a lot of backlash in Iran that they need to retaliate and step up their nuclear power program.”
Some experts have expressed concern that Iran will retaliate with its militia representatives in Iraq. “We may see paramilitary groups associated with Iran carrying out attacks in Iraq,” said International Crisis Group Iraqi chief analyst Lahib Higel.
However, he said Iran must consider when the United States is about to have a new government. “On the one hand, Iran and its related groups in Iraq want to remain on hold until Trump leaves office in January. But on the other hand, it is unlikely that the Iranians will not retaliate before then.” she said.
She argued that Iran’s response in Iraq “would take place in a similar way to what we have seen before: rocket attacks in the Green Zone, the Ain al-Asad air base, or targets. In the logistics convoys. But also there are other options. “
Meanwhile, Henry Rome, a senior analyst at geopolitical risk firm Eurasia Group, believes Iran will first refrain from retaliating. “While Iranian officials are debating whether or not to immediately initiate a diplomatic effort with the Biden administration, it is more likely that they will not take a measure that could stand in the way, as they do. the region, “he said.
Experts say Tehran is more likely to use Fakhrizadeh’s assassination as a lever to demand more concessions from the West. Afshon Ostovar, associate professor of national security issues at the US Naval Graduate School, said Fakhrizadeh’s assassination risked widening the gap between Iran and the United States.
A growing number of officials in the United States agree that issues beyond Iran’s nuclear program may need to be included, such as ballistic missile development and support for proxies in the region. any agreement period in the future. Meanwhile, Iran believes that any future agreement “must be softer and carry more commitments than the first,” he said.
Geranmayeh said that no major political faction in Iran opposes negotiations with the West, which could end US sanctions. But there is “considerable debate as to whether under the Rouhani government, Iran is in danger of being misled again by the United States,” he said.
With Iran scheduled to hold presidential elections in the spring, some analysts predict that the hardliners may dominate and consolidate their power, further complicating hopes of a diplomatic revival with Tehran. by Biden. “I think some of the doors of opportunity are closing,” Eshraghi said.
However, Eshraghi argues that if the Conservatives win, that will not necessarily end the diplomatic effort. A tough government in Iran “may slow the renegotiation with the United States, but at the same time, the results may last longer,” he said.
Phuong Vu (According to the Washington Post / Aljazeera)
