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When Covid-19 stabilized in various countries, the question was what conditions did they need to be able to safely relax the blockade.
Experts fear that governments “succumb” to economic pressure and lift the blockade too soon, giving Covid-19 a chance to explode again. “Removing the restriction too quickly could lead to a dangerous outbreak again,” said WHO Director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
Christian Brechot, president of the Pasteur Institute, former president of the French National Institute for Medical Research INSERM, said that we must “be very humble and cautious” with the virus that many countries have underestimated.
The entrance to the beach in Biarritz, France closed on April 7. Photos: AFP.
Despite such advice, in Europe, the most severely affected continent in Covid-19, some countries began to lift a limited portion.
Germany, where the number of new infections has been reduced and affected slightly less than some neighboring countries, is considering lifting the restrictions in stages. Austria will allow small businesses to reopen after the Easter break, believing they have “flattened the curve” for a successful translation.
Denmark will reopen kindergarten and primary schools from April 15, while the Czech Republic has begun to relax, including the opening of some stores. Countries are following China, which lifted the blockade with the Wuhan epidemic after stringent measures went into effect.
Meanwhile, in other parts of Europe, there is little sign that restrictions will be eased soon. It has recorded that more than 11,000 people died from nCoV. France extended the blockade until May 11.
The director of the French national health service, Jerome Salomon, described the number of slightly reduced intensive care cases as a “weak ray of sunshine.” He assessed that the epidemic had stabilized and that the curve tended to move sideways after reaching its peak.
The epidemic also appears to have stalled in Italy and Spain, and the number of daily deaths is gradually decreasing. But after a period of strong influence, no country was on guard. Italy extended the blockade until May 3, Spain made the same decision until April 25. Ireland, Portugal and Belgium also extended the blockade.
“The blockade should not be lifted when the epidemic has stabilized,” said Antoine Flahault, an epidemiologist at the University of Geneva. We only do it “when we see the decline,” he told France 2.
Researcher Brechot said that “he expects that from mid-May, we will see a decrease in the index,” which will allow “gradually easing” the restrictions.
“We will not go from black to white, but from black to gray, the restrictive measures will continue,” said Jean-Francois Delfraissy, head of the scientific council that advises the French government. “We can start discussing the post-blockade period, but the most important thing is to maintain a strict blockade for several weeks.”
Delfraissy said There are a number of prerequisites to abolish the measures.
First, the number of intensive care cases must be significantly reduced. This helps exhausted health workers have time to rest, and the hospital can replenish equipment and supplies.
The prevalence of Covid-19, the ability of an infected person to infect many, should be less than one, compared to 3.3 when a new outbreak occurs.
Finally, there must be enough masks to protect people and test kits to closely monitor the spread. For example, in France, the assessment should increase from 30,000 tests per day to 100,000 or even 150,000 per day by the end of April, Delfraissy said.
However, there are unknowns that can affect these conditions, including the ability to develop a smartphone app to track the contact history of an infected person. Mobile operators have provided location data to medical researchers in France and Germany.
Another great unknown is the impact of summer on the epidemic situation in the northern hemisphere. Respiratory viruses are less common during the warmer months, but is nCoV the same?
“If Covid-19 does not ‘vacation’, it will be more difficult to remove the blockade,” says epidemiologist Flahault.
Phương Vũ (The O AFP)
