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There is an old saying in the political world that voters will vote with their own money, or that a healthy economy will boost the current president while a weak economy hurts. for him.
However, this is no longer true for this year’s US presidential election, when the role of the economy is no longer clear.
According to the survey data, the evaluation of the economy is based not only on actual performance, but also on the party that voters favor. Voters tend to view the economy as good when their party is in power, and vice versa. At the same time, other issues such as the Covid-19 pandemic, leadership style, and the racial issue are major factors that affect the choice of voters in elections and help reduce the role of voters. economy for voters.
President Trump almost dominates the economic figures compared to the employment figures:
Furthermore, the economic problem itself becomes difficult to control. An expanding economy with record earnings marked by an exceptionally low unemployment rate and continued value spikes is likely to turn into a brief but deeper recession after the photo pandemic. affect the United States. The recovery has begun, but its trajectory is unclear and it comes with heavy debt.
For President Trump, this is happy and unhappy news when the economic situation is no longer closely related to his election campaign. The good news is that you won’t be blamed too much for this year’s economic crisis. Trump still scores high on the way he runs the economy. In July, 54% of Wall Street Journal / NBC News respondents agreed with the way it was running the economy, up from 49% in August 2019.
The bad news is that while some voters consider him a better economic executive than Democratic candidate Joe Biden, they say they have no plans to reelect him for the presidency. According to a poll conducted last month by the Wall Street Journal / NBC News, 48% of voters said Trump was the right candidate to lead the economy, but only 41% of voters said they would continue to vote. Meanwhile, 38% of voters say that Biden is the best candidate for economic issues, while up to 50% say they will vote for him.
The economy has been the focus of many campaigns in the past. Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election campaign launched the slogan “Will you be better than four years ago?” This helped him defeat then-President Jimmy Carter. Another message that Bill Clinton tacitly used in his 1992 campaign “It’s a financial problem, you idiots,” allegedly helped him defeat George HWBush (Bush’s father).
Patrick Murray, who conducts polls at Monmouth University, said: “This is an election where other issues like ethnicity and loyalty overshadow economic factors, which is often the case. It’s good to change the situation in elections. .
Justin Rios, a 31-year-old warehouse worker, had a good job during the Trump administration, got a raise, and moved to a new area in North Philadelphia. He took a break from home for a time due to the impact of the illness and received unemployment benefits. Currently, he has returned to work. He said that when he voted for Trump in the November election, the economy was not the main reason. He thinks Trump will do what he says he will do, like move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and he really likes it.
David Harper, 36, an artist from Philadelphia, said he had a good income until the Covid-19 epidemic appeared. In 2018, his sculptures and other works attracted the attention of many museums and private clients. He and his wife, Karen Patterson, bought a home in North Milwaukee, Wisconsin, then rebuilt it, sold it, and earned more than 50 percent. Last year, they moved to Philadelphia and bought another house.
After the arrival of the Corona epidemic, two clients finished their plans to buy the main works and their work in the museum became uncertain. But in the November election, Harper said the economic downturn was not the reason he voted for Biden. In general, he does not agree with Trump’s behavior or his views on social issues.
An August Gallup poll found that 35% of the public said the disease was the most important problem facing the country, and 22% that government leadership is important. Economic problems such as unemployment or the economy in general only rank third with 12% and only above ethnic problems.
Optimus Analytics, a data collection company with clients consisting of hedge funds and campaign campaigns, is changing its prediction models due to the change in its own opinion. In his model, partisan bias increased by 20% during the 1990s, while economic problems such as unemployment decreased by 60%.
Mark Zandi, a key economist at Moody Analytics, also had to change his prediction model. She says the impact of economic woes has lessened, although it is still influencing factors, especially in swing states like Florida and Pennsylvania or even suburban counties in these states where voters don’t reveal their views.
Mr. Zandi said he was following the state of Pennsylvania. The state’s unemployment rate in July reached 13.7%, well above the national average of 10.2% at the time. The manufacturing industry is affected by the trade war, while cities are plagued with disease. These can be of help to Biden, Zandi said.
In other potentially variable states, the unemployment rate has dropped significantly. In Wisconsin, for example, the rate was 7% in July. The Moody Analytics prediction model assumes that the end result is too early to confirm and is highly dependent on voter turnout, which is a lot. difficult to predict.
