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Russia maintains up to 5,000 soldiers in Armenia, which most Armenians accept to ensure their safety. Although it was on the side of Armenia throughout the conflict, Moscow also forged relations with Azerbaijan and was the main supplier of arms to both sides. As Azerbaijan’s relations with the West have deteriorated in recent years amid growing interest in its oil and gas reserves and growing concerns about Aliyev’s authoritarian rule, Russia has taken a step closer to Baku.
According to the magazine External relationshipsAlthough Moscow does not “direct” anything here, both Baku and Yerevan understand that any solution to the conflict can only come with Russian help. In previous skirmishes (including the one in July), Russian officials helped mediate a ceasefire agreement.
Today Russia has no interest in a broader conflict that could force it to make difficult decisions about fulfilling its commitments to Armenia and devoting additional resources to the region. The southern Caucasus at that time the country was involved on many other fronts.
The tho jumped
Although Russia remains the most important power broker, another external force with historical ties to the region increasingly seeks to shape the outcome of the conflict. Turkey sided with Azerbaijan in the initial conflict in the 1990s, and the two countries shared a close ethnic and cultural relationship.
Commentators and officials, mainly Turkish, describe the relationship as “one country, two states.” However, until recently, Turkey’s involvement in the dispute was relatively limited. But since Ankara took a firmer stance on the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it has become more outspoken in its support for Azerbaijan.
Over the past year, Turkey has sold a variety of weapons to Azerbaijan, including UAVs, missiles, and electronic warfare equipment. When the fighting began in Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey also strongly supported Azerbaijan politically. Mr. Erdogan declared that Turkey “would stand by our side with our friend and brother Azerbaijan” and called on Armenia to immediately return the “occupied territory”.
Turkey’s main opposition parties joined Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party to pass a resolution condemning the Armenian actions. Turkey also sent Syrian mercenaries to Azerbaijan, and Armenia claimed this week that a Turkish F-16 shot down one of its fighters (this was shot down by Turkey. Rejected).
Turkey’s growing involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh is a dangerous game. In the southern Caucasus, strong support from Turkey could encourage Baku to take a zero tolerance course and resist calls for a ceasefire to maintain some versions of the status quo. Turkish involvement could also transform the conflict that already existed in the minds of Armenians, especially in the context of the massacres of Armenians during WWI by Ottoman forces in Turkey.
A dangerous game
Russia-Turkey relations have flourished despite the rivalry between the two countries. But the Turkish intervention in Nagorno-Karabakh is Ankara’s most outspoken challenge to Russian influence in the former Soviet Union, where Moscow is determined to defend its superiority. Although Russia remains committed to limiting the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the overlapping presence of Russian and Turkish forces on many other battlefields gives Moscow many opportunities to scale.
Indeed, Turkey’s direct involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh increases the risk not only in the South Caucasus, but also in all regions where Ankara and Moscow are at odds. For now, the two countries have supported the opposition in the conflicts in Libya and Syria, where their proxies sometimes clash, and have incompatible ambitions in the Balkans and Syria. Ukraine. Ankara may view its involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh in part as a bargaining chip not only in Kavkaz but also in its broader competitive relationship with Moscow.
And the involvement of Turkish mercenaries from Syria, another battlefield where Russian and Turkish interests collide, suggests that this time the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may not be confined to the southern Caucasus. .
The recreated fighting in and around Nagorno-Karabakh comes as no surprise. However, the scale of the ongoing fighting, Turkey’s more prominent role, and the potential for the conflict to spread to other disputed areas have significantly increased the consequences. For now, Russia, which is calling on all sides to relax, appears to have been taken by surprise by the level of the fighting and Turkey’s role in it.
Thanks in part to its recent success in building relations with Baku, Moscow is still reluctant to take sides or intervene directly. Russia is the only external power that is in a position to bring the parties back to the negotiating table. Turkish intervention threatens Russia’s traditional mediation role, but Moscow still has considerable political and financial clout to stop the fighting. They should, even if it all depends on whether the main characters of Baku and Yerevan want to get away from the abyss.
The views and facts in the Foreign Affair article do not necessarily reflect the point of view
Mr minh
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