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Although multiple polls show Democrat Joe Biden ahead of President Donald Trump before the 3-11 election, the lessons of the election four years ago suggest that anything could happen. .
Long-term constitutional crisis?
Some experts have spoken of the possibility that the results of the race are so close that no one will give up. This is reminiscent of the confrontation between Mr. George W. Bush of the Republican Party and Mr. Al Gore of the Democratic Party in the 2000 elections. At that time, Mr. Bush lost 540,000 popular votes to his opponent, but received 271 electoral votes, 1 more than the minimum to win. It is worth mentioning that this result depends entirely on the 25 electoral votes in Florida, but the incident was not clear at the end of the election night, which generated much controversy.
Mr. Al Gore’s election team then asked officials from four of Florida’s largest counties to manually verify the votes. Ballots are cast in the form of voters punching holes next to the candidate’s name. Three weeks after Election Day, Florida announced that Bush won by 537 votes, Al Gore doubted that number, and the state’s highest court ordered a recount of thousands of votes rejected by the counter. as they are not completely perforated, there is still a small piece of paper attached to the ballot.
The Supreme Court of the United States ordered to stop this count from 12 to 12, 6 days before the meeting of the electoral college. The court ruled that the constitution was violated by the use of different counting standards by counties. In the end, Al Gore admitted to losing and said he didn’t want the United States to continue falling into partisan struggles.
16 years later, the same scenario is repeated. In a victory that went against most pre-election polls, Republican candidate Donald Trump defeated his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. Trump won the US presidential elections thanks to the resounding victory of the electoral votes (304-227), despite losing his opponent by 2.8 million popular votes. According to History.com, both elections led to calls to abolish electoral votes in a simpler “one person, one vote” system, but things have remained in place until now.
According to the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy (ASPI), there are many reasons to be concerned that this year’s elections could push the United States into a protracted constitutional crisis, possibly even leading to civil violence. If Trump is re-elected despite losing the popular vote, Biden and most of the United States may not accept the loss as easily as Hillary or Al Gore. Should the Supreme Court once again decide to end the recount, as in the Bush-Al Gore showdown, massive protests across the United States could ensue.
Election staff processed thousands of mailed ballots in the city of Anta Ana, Califorina, USA on November 2 Photo: REUTERS
Complicated procedure
Things are also complicated if the election results do not identify the candidate who gets at least the 270 electoral votes required or candidates with the same number of electoral votes. At that time, the fate of the head of the White House will fall into the hands of the new congressmen elected in the elections of November 3, according to Amendment 12. Specifically, the new lower house will have to choose the president from among 3 the candidate with more electoral votes. The delegation of deputies representing each state will receive one vote and a candidate needs 26 votes to win.
It should be noted that the party composition of the delegation will determine which candidate this vote belongs to. This means that the presidency may not be determined by the party that controls the lower house, but by the party that dominates the state parliamentary delegation. Meanwhile, the Senate will choose the vice president from the two candidates with the most electoral votes. Each senator receives one vote. A candidate needs 51 votes to win.
What happens if the House of Representatives does not elect the president before the swearing-in date in January 2021? Meanwhile, Amendment 20 “will take action.” The vice president will be in office until the president is selected. In case the president and vice president are not elected before the date of the oath,
The Presidential Succession Act (PSA) will apply. The speaker of the lower house, the speaker of the upper house or a member of the cabinet, in this sequence, will come to power until a president or vice president is elected. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Donald Trump have braced for the possibility that no one has won 270 electoral votes, something that has not happened since 1876.
